Wilson: Projected Over/Unders for Every Week 12 College Football Matchup
Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tee Higgins and Travis Etienne
MACtion will be headlined by severe winter storms rolling through the Michigan to Pennsylvania area this week, so the gambling market will be affected.
Snow and wind are forecasted Tuesday through Thursday, as the projected totals will surely move closer to kickoff. Generally, those numbers move towards the under.
Just because bad weather is in store does not necessarily mean that points will not be scored. On Halloween night, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State played in Boone, N.C., under a Tornado Watch. Despite a reported 60 mph wind gusts, the Eagles hit long range field goals.
— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) November 1, 2019
Las season, Kent State and Toledo had a midweek game that called for ice and snow. While the weather slowed down cars in the area, the Golden Flashes and Rockets combined for 90 points.
It is important to keep a good set of power ratings for side and totals so you can take advantage when the market overreacts.
So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.
Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.
Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 12 projected point spreads are here.
Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.
Projected College Football Totals, Week 12
Notes on Totals for Week 12
- The forecast calls for significant snow to affect MACtion. Akron should see snow late Monday and through Tuesday kickoff. Athens will see less of a chance for precipitation when Ohio hosts Western Michigan, while 15 mph winds are expected when Toledo hosts Northern Illinois.
- Winds are projected greater than 15 mph when Ohio hosts Western Michigan and Kansas visits Oklahoma State, per Sports Insights.
- Tulsa, Syracuse and Arizona have run the most plays per game over the past three weeks, an average of at least 84.7. Georgia Tech, Arkansas and Maryland come in on the opposite end of the spectrum through the same time frame, averaging the fewest.
- Oklahoma, Ohio State and Clemson remain as the only teams over 3 yards per play net differential. LSU has steadily fallen to +2.2 with a slide in opponent passive explosiveness rank to 126th.
- UTSA continues to toe the line in negative yards per play differential at -3.7.