Miami (Ohio) vs. Bowling Green Betting Odds, Predictions: Our Top Pick for Tuesday’s Late MACtion Game
Bobby McDuffie/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Brett Gabbert.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Bowling Green Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -114 | 51.5 -112o / -108u | +630 |
| RedHawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -106 | 51.5 -112o / -108u | -1050 |
Tuesday marks a big day for a MACtion top dog, as 5-5 MAC East leader Miami (Ohio) hosts 3-7 Bowling Green.
The Falcons saw themselves get trounced at home by Toledo last week, and it marked the third straight game that Bowling Green allowed over 40 points. BGSU has only one win in the MAC this season on the road at Buffalo, and outside of that one win, it's really struggled to move the ball offensively.
Now, it'll be going up against one of the best defenses in the MAC when they travel to Oxford, Ohio.
Miami (OH) has been playing much better since starting quarterback Brett Gabbert returned after missing games in October.
The RedHawks are in the driver's seat in the MAC East but have a huge game to end the season against Kent State that could decide which side goes to Detroit for the MAC Championship.
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks
Gabbert Has Been Huge for RedHawks
The overall offensive numbers for Miami (OH) haven't been great this season, ranking 95th in Success Rate, but it's been a night and day difference ever since Gabbert returned from injury.
Since Gabbert returned against Ball State, the RedHawks are gaining 6.98 yards per play, and Gabbert has been on fire in the passing game. He's averaging 9.1 yards per attempt with 11 touchdowns, compared to only one interception.
During that three-game span, Gabbert put up a passing grade over 85 with eight big-time throws, per PFF. So, he should be able to put up some explosive passing plays against Bowling Green's secondary.
Brett Gabbert goes deep to Jack Sorenson on the flea flicker for the Miami TD. Big play for the Redhawks as they strike first.
BUFFALO 0
MIAMI OH 7— CFB Blitz (@BlitzCfb) November 10, 2021
The RedHawk rushing attack hasn't really been that effective, gaining only 4.3 yards per attempt and ranking 100th in EPA/Rush. However, they ran the ball for 5.1 yards per carry and had a 0.47 EPA/Rush, which is well above their season average.
So, they should be able to run the ball on one of the worst run defenses in the MAC on Tuesday.
Miami (OH) Hoping to Create Havoc
Miami's defense has been built on creating turnovers this season. The RedHawks are 20th in the nation in Havoc and have been putting a ton of pressure on the opposing quarterback, as PFF has them graded as the 34th-best pass-rushing unit in college football.
That's a huge advantage in this matchup, considering Bowling Green's offensive line is 123rd in terms of a pass-blocking grade and 117th in Havoc Allowed.
While the Miami secondary has been well below average this season, ranking 109th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 107th in coverage, putting pressure on McDonald is going to pay big dividends. When the Falcons quarterback is pressured, he has a 49.2 passing grade with six turnover-worthy plays, per PFF.
Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green Offense Continues to Struggle
It's been a real struggle for Bowling Green on offense, as it's averaging only 4.9 yards per play and ranks 106th in Success Rate.
Quarterback Matt McDonald has really struggled to move the ball through the air this season. He's averaging only 6.7 yards per attempt and has a 65.3 PFF passing grade with 14 turnover-worthy plays in 10 games.
That's a problem because teams have to attack the Miami defense through the air, as the RedHawks rank outside the top 100 in Passing Success Rate Allowed. However, Bowling Green does throw the ball 53.8% of the time, which is one of the highest rates in the MAC, so it may be able to move the ball on the RedHawks secondary.
The rushing attack hasn't been able to do anything, which is why Bowling Green is throwing the ball at such a high rate.
The Falcons gain only 3.5 yards per carry, and if you remove the 227-yard performance against a terrible Buffalo run defense, the Falcons are gaining only 2.8 yards per carry against the rest of their opponents this season.
Can Falcons Defense Stop the Pass?
The Falcons really struggle from a Success Rate standpoint, with a lot of their difficulties coming against the run.
Bowling Green is allowing 5.3 yards per carry and ranks 116th in EPA/Rush allowed. The front seven is also graded as the 82nd-best run defense unit, per PFF and ranks outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards.
So, even though the RedHawk rushing attack hasn't been great this season, they should be able to establish the run on Tuesday night.
The Falcons' secondary has surprisingly been very good versus the pass. Bowling Green sits 22nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 19th in EPA/Pass allowed.
However, they're allowing a few too many big plays in the passing game, ranking 85th in passing explosiveness allowed. That's a problem going up against Gabbert and Company, who have lived on big plays in the passing game, ranking 21st nationally in passing explosiveness.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Bowling Green Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Miami (OH) match up statistically:
Bowling Green Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 90 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 80 | |
| Pass Success | 109 | 109 |  |
| Pass Blocking** | 123 | 34 | |
| Big Play | 114 | 66 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 20 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 96 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Miami (OH) Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 123 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 22 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 122 | 48 | |
| Big Play | 15 | 53 | |
| Havoc | 8 | 100 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 106 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 28 |
| Coverage | 89 | 107 |
| Middle 8 | 127 | 74 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 41 | 114 |
| Plays per Minute | 90 | 70 |
| Rush Rate | 46.2% (116) | 50.9% (90) |
Miami (Ohio) vs. Bowling Green Betting Pick
Miami (OH) has been a much better team with Gabbert under center, and with the offense clicking the way it is right now, I'm not sure how Bowling Green is going to stop it given how bad its defense has been the last three games.
I have the RedHawks projected at -20.18, so I think there's some value on Miami at -15.5 and would play it up to -17.
Pick: Miami (Ohio) -15.5 (Play to -17)
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