The Toledo Rockets take on the Louisville Cardinals in the Boca Raton Bowl in Boca Raton, Florida, on Tuesday, Dec. 23. Kickoff is set for 2 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Louisville is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -310. Toledo, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +250 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43.5 total points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Louisville prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, December 23.
Toledo vs Louisville Prediction
- Toledo vs. Louisville Pick: Louisville -6.5 (Play to -7) · Toledo Team Total Under 19.5 (Play to 17.5)
My Louisville vs. Toledo best bet is on the Cardinals to cover the spread and the Rockets to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Toledo vs Louisville Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -108 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | +250 |
| Louisville Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -112 | 43.5 -115o / -105u | -310 |
- Toledo vs Louisville Spread: Louisville -7.5, Toledo +7.5
- Toledo vs Louisville Over/Under: 43.5 Points
- Toledo vs Louisville Moneyline: Toledo +250, Louisville -310
Toledo vs Louisville Boca Raton Bowl Preview
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview: Space Debris
Toledo enters the Boca Raton Bowl without its head coach or stud defensive coordinator, as HC Jason Candle is off to UConn and DC Vince Kehres is off to Syracuse.
Neither will stick around for this game. Instead, co-offensive coordinator Robert Weiner leads the Rockets.
Furthermore, the Rockets may be without starting quarterback Tucker Gleason, who suffered an injury in the regular-season finale and is considered doubtful. Instead, Kalieb Osborne could assume QB1 duties.
Osborne, a freshman, is a more versatile athlete than Gleason, but is a far inferior passer. Against CMU, Osborne took 10 carries for 68 yards.
Other top players to watch in terms of availability include receiver Junior Vandeross III, cornerbacks Andre Fuller and Avery Smith, safety Emmanuel McNeil-Warren and running back Chip Trayanum.
Three other starters, defensive end Malachi Davis (who led the Rockets in sacks), safety Braden Awls and linebacker Chris D'Appolonia, are all hitting the transfer portal, and none are expected to play.
And just for good measure, throw starting guard Carter Fouty on the injury report, too.
This Toledo team entering the Boca Raton Bowl is a shell of its regular-season self. Coaching and roster turnover could really inhibit the Rockets’ ability to compete against a power conference opponent on Dec. 23 — one of the last bowls before Christmas.
Last year’s Toledo team managed to pull off a wild upset against Pitt with all of the aforementioned players on the field; the Rockets had near-perfect attendance there.
While Kehres’ staff is still involved in calling the defense, the Rockets could be without their entire starting secondary, which is the team’s biggest strength.
This is a textbook example of handicapping a bowl game in a vacuum, as few of Toledo’s season strengths matter with one hand tied behind its back.
Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview: Clipped Wings, Still Soaring
Louisville will be missing some major pieces, but not nearly to the scale of Toledo. Star receiver Chris Bell tore his ACL late in November and won’t play in this game. He’s also considered a top NFL prospect (pre-injury) and likely would have sat anyway.
A trio of running backs — star Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown and Duke Watson — are all hurt, and head coach Jeff Brohm says he’s “hopes” one of them plays.
It’s not a glowing review of the room, which will be down to freshman Braxton Jennings and converted receiver Shaun Boykins Jr. Jennings and Boykins both passed 100 yards in the season finale against Kentucky.
Quarterback Miller Moss confirmed he’ll play in this game, his last with Louisville.
For another season, the Cards’ strength comes in its defensive line. It’s thinned a bit by the opting out of Wesley Bailey (eight sacks), though Clev Lubin (nine sacks) is expected to play. Starting defensive tackle Rene Konga will sit.
This season, Louisville held opponents to just a 30% Quality Drive Rate, a top-10 mark nationally. On those quality possessions, the Cards held opponents to more field goals than touchdowns.
Louisville’s biggest bane this year was inopportune mistakes. Three of its four losses this season came by three points or less (two in overtime), and it came to a head in a 20-19 loss against Clemson that featured several critical gaffes, including a pair of missed kicks late.
But the peak of Louisville is as good as any ACC team. It walloped Kentucky, 41-0, to end the season and handed Miami one of its two losses in October on the road. The Cards even took down CFP participant James Madison in Week 2.
Toledo vs Louisville Pick, Betting Analysis
Toledo has taken all of the movement since opening as a +8.5 underdog. The Rockets fell under a touchdown, and the line didn’t rebound right away, indicating some sharp action on them.
A full-strength Toledo team would be an intriguing pick here.
But this isn’t full-strength Toledo.
The Rockets could be without at least three NFL players in the secondary, their leading pass rusher, starting quarterback, NFL-level receiver and their coveted coaching staff.
Toledo digs into its depth — which, to be fair, is significant for a MAC program — and needs to overcome an ACC opponent while doing so.
There’s not an obvious motivation gap between these teams (at least not one pregame).
Brohm is 6-2 in bowl games, and Moss has a history of dynamic performances in them. At USC, Moss threw six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl against Brohm and Louisville (where he subsequently transferred to) but sat out last year’s Sun Bowl with an injury.
If we’re dealing with two teams needing to dig into depth pieces, I’m siding with the ACC program and Louisville here.
There’s too much absence to roll with Toledo.
However, do keep an eye on decisions from Vandeross, Trayanum, Fuller and Smith.
There’s also a potential for some wind and rain during the game, which is worth monitoring as kickoff nears.
Osborne is not an inspiring replacement. He’s athletic, but most of his attempts against Central Michigan were short. Toledo’s three touchdowns that game came on two rushes and a screen pass.
Against Louisville — with or without its top rushers — I don’t expect a breakout performance from the freshman.
Pick: Louisville -6.5 (Play to -7) · Toledo Team Total Under 19.5 (Play to 17.5)
