The UNLV Rebels take on the Ohio Bobcats in the Frisco Bowl in Frisco, Texas, on Tuesday, Dec. 23. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
UNLV is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Ohio, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +210 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 66.5 total points.
Here’s my UNLV vs. Ohio prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, December 23.
UNLV vs Ohio Prediction
- UNLV vs. Ohio Pick: Ohio +6.5
My Ohio vs. UNLV best bet is on the Bobcats to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UNLV vs Ohio Odds
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- UNLV vs Ohio Spread: UNLV -6.5, Ohio +6.5
- UNLV vs Ohio Over/Under: 66.5 Points
- UNLV vs Ohio Moneyline: UNLV -260, Ohio +210
UNLV vs Ohio Frisco Bowl Preview
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview: Efficient or Lucky?
The sleeping giant that was UNLV has been fully awakened, thanks to strong financial backing and good coaching hires.
Between 2000-22, UNLV had two winning seasons, and it had just one 10-win season in its program history (1984, all of which were vacated).
In the last three years, UNLV has gone 30-11 with three straight bowl appearances, matching the non-vacated program bowl total.
Despite enormous turnover this season, the Rebels turned in a 10-3 record, including an appearance in the Mountain West Championship. Their losses came to Boise State (twice) and New Mexico.
Defense was, at times, a considerable concern. UNLV surrendered 31 points to FCS Idaho State in its season opener, 38 to Miami (OH) (84th in Points Per Drive) and 40-plus three other times.
The defensive front can be pushed around, and tackling was an issue against more talented backs. Opponents got ahead of the sticks early, and once teams got into the red zone, UNLV allowed a score on 92% of trips.
This is a bottom-five run defense, too. UNLV ranks 131st in Rushing EPA allowed and 124th in Rushing Success Rate allowed (45.4%). That led directly to New Mexico finding 40 in Las Vegas to start November.
Fortunately for the Rebels, one of the country’s best rushing attacks kept them in front.
Junior running back Jai'Den Thomas averages 7.4 yards per carry and serves as a threat in the receiving game (43 targets). QB Anthony Colandrea adds over 600 rushing yards (a number likely closer to 800, adjusting for his 21 sacks taken), and two other backs — Jaylon Glover and short-yardage bruiser Keyvone Lee — has over 300 apiece.
UNLV doesn’t run at a breakneck pace.
It runs 65 plays per game on average (86th) at 27.3 seconds per play (89th), but the offense is among the nation’s most efficient. The Rebels’ 46.8% Rushing Success Rate is the 10th-best in the country, and their 5.15 Passing EPA per game ranks 19th.
There’s a tradeoff for just about everything with this team. UNLV scores points on over 94% of red-zone trips (fifth-best) but allows a score on 92% of them (126th). It ranks seventh in Rushing EPA but 133rd in EPA Per Rush allowed; 20th in Success Rate and 112th in Success Rate allowed.
Wins have come by fortune against stronger opponents. Against teams inside the top 100 nationally in aggregate industry power rating, UNLV is 3-3 with all three wins coming by one score.
UNLV benefitted from two consecutive turnovers from Miami (OH), a double-overtime finish against Utah State and a missed 40-yard field goal from Air Force as time expired to tie the game.
Two things are true about UNLV at once: It’s a good team with a hyper-efficient offense, and it also has benefited from a bit of luck against better teams.
Ohio Bobcats Betting Preview: Turbulent December Overshadowing Season
Ohio football has had quite the December, and not in a positive way.
Head coach Brian Smith was fired for cause after being mysteriously put on leave after Thanksgiving. Quarterback Parker Navarro is also in a legal dispute with the NCAA to fight for an extra year of eligibility.
Defensive coordinator John Hauser was named the interim head coach in place of Smith, and it’s unclear if Ohio will make it a permanent elevation — something that’s not uncommon in Athens.
Aside from the distractions surrounding the coaching staff, this Bobcats team is in remarkable shape. Only one starter is questionable for the game, linebacker Michael Molnar, who missed November with an injury.
The Bobcats own the nation’s longest bowl win streak at six straight. They haven't lost a bowl game since 2016, and we get some pretty inspired performances from the roster in bowls (backup running back Rickey Hunt scoring four touchdowns, anyone?).
Navarro will play in this game and likely won’t get a ruling from the NCAA until later this winter. That means this could be the last time we see the athletic dual-threat in an Ohio uniform.
For bowls, finding these “last chance” veteran quarterbacks is usually a good team to get behind.
Ohio has also found success leaning on its lines, both offensively and defensively.
Four starters on the Bobcats’ offensive line are at least seniors, and the defensive front is made up of three starters playing at least their fourth year of college football. As a result, Ohio ranks in the top 40 in Line Yards, including a top-10 mark on defense.
That line play, plus dynamic play from running back Sieh Bangura and Navarro, propelled the Bobcats to a top-40 finish in Success Rate.
Its four losses on the season all came by one score. They came against Rutgers (in a last-second thriller), Ohio State (where it was a one-score game at halftime), Ball State (inexplicable) and Western Michigan (the MAC champion, which just throttled the CUSA champion, 41-6). It also has a home win over West Virginia.
UNLV vs Ohio Pick, Betting Analysis
This game is played at The Star in Frisco, the Dallas Cowboys’ indoor practice facility. It’s a premier 12,000-seat venue that hosted the Xbox Bowl earlier this month. Weather and field conditions will not be an issue.
Noise around the Ohio program bumped the point spread up from UNLV -4.5 to -6.5. The total opened at 62.5 and grew to 65.5.
For bowl confidence pools, Ohio is an intriguing contrarian pick, considering 90% of entries side with UNLV in this game. It’s a riskier selection, but one that could help gain ground if you’re falling behind.
With a high point total, there’s a high amount of variance projected in this game.
Ohio has an advantage at the line of scrimmage and matches UNLV’s prowess on the ground.
Historically, this is a very disciplined program that can withstand the noise surrounding Smith. Last year, there was noise surrounding head coach Tim Albin, who left the program before the bowl to take the Charlotte job.
Bowls have varying levels of importance to programs. For MAC programs like Ohio, bowls are a symbol of pride and are displayed prominently at recruiting facilities.
UNLV showed plenty of buy-in for their bowl games under previous head coach Barry Odom, but current head coach Dan Mullen has coached in games with much higher stakes.
Coming from the SEC, Mullen’s top priority in Las Vegas is conference championships.
Pick: Ohio +6.5 or Better · Sprinkle Ohio ML at +210
