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College Football Picks, Predictions: Our NCAAF Bowl Bets for Tuesday, December 23

College Football Picks, Predictions: Our NCAAF Bowl Bets for Tuesday, December 23 article feature image
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Imagn Images. Pictured: Ohio QB Parker Navarro (left) and Louisville QB Miller Moss (right).

College football bowl season rolls on with another 3 games on Tuesday.

First, we'll kick it off with the Boca Raton Bowl between the Louisville Cardinals of the ACC and Toledo Rockets of the MAC.

Then, we'll turn our attention to the New Orleans Bowl, which pits the Sun Belt's Southern Miss Golden Eagles against Conference USA's Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.

Finally, make sure you grab your Scooter's Coffee for the Frisco Bowl between the Ohio Bobcats and UNLV Rebels at 9 p.m. ET.

Our college football writers broke down all 3 games and came through with a pick for each, so let's dive into our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Tuesday, Dec. 23.


College Football Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, Dec. 23

The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Tuesday's slate of bowl games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.

GameTime (ET)Pick
Louisville Cardinals LogoToledo Rockets Logo
2 p.m.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles LogoWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers Logo
5:30 p.m.
Ohio Bobcats LogoUNLV Rebels Logo
9 p.m.
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Playbook

Louisville vs Toledo Pick

Louisville Cardinals Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 23
2 p.m. ET
ESPN
Toledo Rockets Logo
Louisville -7 · Toledo Team Total Under 19.5
bet365 Logo

By Road to CFB

Toledo has taken all of the movement since opening as a +8.5 underdog. The Rockets fell under a touchdown, and the line didn’t rebound right away, indicating some sharp action on them.

A full-strength Toledo team would be an intriguing pick here.

But this isn’t full-strength Toledo.

The Rockets could be without at least three NFL players in the secondary, their leading pass rusher, starting quarterback, NFL-level receiver and their coveted coaching staff.

Toledo digs into its depth — which, to be fair, is significant for a MAC program — and needs to overcome an ACC opponent while doing so.

There’s not an obvious motivation gap between these teams (at least not one pregame).

Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm has gone 6-2 in bowl games, and quarterback Miller Moss has a history of dynamic performances in them.

At USC, Moss threw six touchdowns in the Holiday Bowl against Brohm and Louisville (where he subsequently transferred to) but sat out last year’s Sun Bowl with an injury.

If we’re dealing with two teams needing to dig into depth pieces, I’m siding with the ACC program and Louisville here.

There’s too much absence to roll with Toledo.

However, do keep an eye on decisions from wide receiver Junior Vandeross, running back Chip Trayanum, cornerback Andre Fuller and cornerback Avery Smith.

Furthermore, the Rockets may be without starting quarterback Tucker Gleason, who suffered an injury in the regular-season finale and is considered doubtful. Instead, Kalieb Osborne could assume QB1 duties.

There’s also a potential for some wind and rain during the game, which is worth monitoring as kickoff nears.

Osborne is not an inspiring replacement. He’s athletic, but most of his attempts against Central Michigan were short. Toledo’s three touchdowns that game came on two rushes and a screen pass.

Against Louisville — with or without its top rushers — I don’t expect a breakout performance from the freshman.

Pick: Louisville -6.5 (Play to -7) · Toledo Team Total Under 19.5 (Play to 17.5)



Southern Miss vs Western Kentucky Pick

Southern Miss Golden Eagles Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 23
5:30 p.m. ET
ESPN
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Logo
1H Under 30
bet365 Logo

By Joshua Nunn

This line opened at Western Kentucky -3 and was bet up to -5, but has seen action come back the other way. The Tops now come into the game as -1.5 favorites with a total that has steamed up to 58.5. I'm going to target the first-half under here.

Southern Miss offensive coordinator Blake Anderson is also a veteran head coach, and I expect this Southern Miss team to play hard for the guy who's going to be sticking around and coaching the team next year.

Quarterback Braylon Braxton should play well in this spot, but I could see the Golden Eagles running the ball more in this one to exploit Western Kentucky's poor run defense.

WKU struggled in that area for most of the season, while postin few negative plays. The front has been gashed most of the way, allowing 5.1 yards per carry while recording only 16 sacks this season.

This Southern Miss offense did struggle with posting explosive plays at times, so I expect their drives to be methodical in nature.

We should see the Eagles move the ball, but the drives are going to take time. And if they keep it on the ground, we could see a fast-moving clock in the first half.

Western Kentucky quarterback Rodney Tisdale Jr. is going to have to have his best stuff here, as the Southern Miss secondary leads the FBS with 21 interceptions this season.

I could see Tisdale getting a bit rattled by the pressure here and making a key mistake early before he settles into this game. I expect Southern Miss to win the line of scrimmage and create enough Havoc to stall WKU's drives early.

Pick: 1H Under 30 (Play to 28.5)



Ohio vs UNLV Pick

Ohio Bobcats Logo
Tuesday, Dec. 23
9 p.m. ET
ESPN
UNLV Rebels Logo
Ohio +6.5
bet365 Logo

By Road to CFB

This game is played at The Star in Frisco, the Dallas Cowboys’ indoor practice facility. It’s a premier 12,000-seat venue that hosted the Xbox Bowl earlier this month. Weather and field conditions will not be an issue.

Ohio head coach Brian Smith was fired for cause after being mysteriously put on leave after Thanksgiving. Quarterback Parker Navarro is also in a legal dispute with the NCAA to fight for an extra year of eligibility.

Noise around the Ohio program bumped the point spread up from UNLV -4.5 to -6.5. The total opened at 62.5 and grew to 65.5.

For bowl confidence pools, Ohio is an intriguing contrarian pick, considering 90% of entries side with UNLV in this game. It’s a riskier selection, but one that could help gain ground if you’re falling behind.

With a high point total, there’s a high amount of variance projected in this game.

Ohio has an advantage at the line of scrimmage and matches UNLV’s prowess on the ground.

Historically, this is a very disciplined program that can withstand the noise surrounding head coach Brian Smith's firing. Last year, there was noise surrounding head coach Tim Albin, who left the program before the bowl to take the Charlotte job.

Navarro will also play in this game and likely won’t get a ruling from the NCAA until later this winter. That means this could be the last time we see the athletic dual-threat in an Ohio uniform.

For bowls, finding these “last chance” veteran quarterbacks is usually a good team to get behind.

Bowls have varying levels of importance to programs. For MAC programs like Ohio, bowls are a symbol of pride and are displayed prominently at recruiting facilities.

UNLV showed plenty of buy-in for their bowl games under previous head coach Barry Odom, but current head coach Dan Mullen has coached in games with much higher stakes.

Coming from the SEC, Mullen’s top priority in Las Vegas is conference championships.

Pick: Ohio +6.5 or Better · Sprinkle Ohio ML at +210

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