The Central Michigan Chippewas take on the Kent State Golden Flashes in Kent, Ohio. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Central Michigan is favored by 8.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -340. Kent State, meanwhile, enters as a +8.5 underdog and is +265 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my Central Michigan vs. Kent State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, November 19.
Central Michigan vs Kent State Prediction
- Central Michigan vs. Kent State Pick: Kent State +9.5
My Kent State vs. Central Michigan best bet is on the Golden Flashes to cover the spread at home. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Central Michigan vs Kent State Odds
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -340 |
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
- Central Michigan vs Kent State Spread: Central Michigan -8.5, Kent State +8.5
- Central Michigan vs Kent State Over/Under: 49.5 Points
- Central Michigan vs Kent State Moneyline: Central Michigan -340, Kent State +265
Central Michigan vs Kent State College Football Betting Preview
Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Preview: Bowl Season Secured
At 6-4, Central Michigan has safely performed above expectation this season. Although it needs outside help, CMU has a straightforward path to the MAC Championship game as things stand before this game.
It clinched a bowl berth last week for the first time since 2021, so head coach Matt Drinkall's first year in Mount Pleasant should be considered a success.
But we need to have a conversation about the Chippewas.
CMU's six wins came against teams that rank an average of 118th in their respective divisions, per aggregated industry power ratings (Wagner ranks 109th in FCS, the highest-ranked win in its respective division for CMU).
Those wins also came on the back of 14 turnovers. CMU's +8 turnover margin this year ranks 10th nationally.
The Chips recovered three fumbles against Buffalo, returning one for a touchdown, and were gifted two interceptions, one of which set up a touchdown drive of fewer than 50 yards.
CMU benefited from a mess of an offense against Bowling Green with the Falcons' multiple backup QBs and two late missed field goals against San Jose State.
I'm not here to write off all of CMU's wins. The defense has been legitimately good — especially at limiting explosive passes and on early downs — but there's a strong possibility this team is overvalued in the market behind some lucky results.
Quarterback Joe Labas provided this team with some stability. He leads the MAC in passer rating, and the offense actually improved when the other QBs got hurt, resulting in the removal of a unique three-QB rotation.
Angel Flores, the rushing threat at QB who leads the team with 523 yards and eight touchdowns, missed Week 10 with an injury and is questionable this week. No other ball-carrier has more than two rushing scores.
The Chips defense is one of the MAC's stronger stop units.
Edge Michael Heldman is well on his way to earning All-MAC honors behind 47 pressures (second in the MAC) and nine sacks (third). Linebacker Jordan Kwiatkowski leads the team with 59 tackles, as well as three interceptions, tied for third-most in the country among linebackers.
Central Michigan likes to slow things to a grinding halt, running just 60 plays per game (126th) at the second-slowest pace in the country (31.4 seconds per play).
The Chips attempt the second-fewest passes among non-service academies (20) and rank 129th in Rushing Success Rate. It's a painful watch for fans of offense.
Alas, Drinkall has these guys in a position to compete for a conference title.
Kent State Golden Flashes Betting Preview: Still Playing for Something
Thanks to a thrilling 42-35 overtime win over rival Akron last game, Kent State's season lives on.
The Golden Flashes have more than doubled their preseason regular-season win total (set at just 1.5) and are technically still alive for a spot in the MAC Championship.
QB Dru DeShields had a career outing against the Zips, throwing for 317 yards and five touchdowns. That performance added nearly 50% to his season passing touchdown total.
DeShields really was the X-factor — no receiver had more than four receptions or 100 yards, and all five touchdown passes went to different receivers.
DeShields was pressured 10 times (just one sack), and his average time to throw was a season-best and lightning-quick 2.49 seconds. He sliced and diced his way through the Akron defense with confidence and decisiveness.
The Kent State rushing attack, or lack thereof, is still a significant concern.
The Flashes went for just 57 total rushing yards in the 42-point outing and, on the season, no rusher has surpassed 80 individual yards. They've been held under 100 yards seven times, resulting in a Rushing Success Rate that ranks dead last in the FBS.
Kent State's defensive numbers are helped along by having played a cast of really, really bad offenses.
Four of its last five opponents rank 123rd or worse in points per drive scored on the season, and the outlier, Toledo (60th), hung 45 points on the Flashes.
They have one more bottom-rung offense left (NIU), but Central Michigan ranks inside the top 70 in points per drive nationally.
Finding the split in production is a fool's errand here since the gap between lower-tier opponents (Akron, Ball State) differs wildly from the upper tier (Oklahoma, Texas Tech), with only Toledo as the current buffer.
But removing the real outlier (UMass), Kent State has beaten two bottom-15 FBS teams by a combined 10 points.
A decided advantage for the Flashes is their tendency to not turn the football over. DeShields rarely puts the ball in harm's way, even if it means a lower average depth of target and, by association, fewer passing yards.
Not turning the ball over doesn't always result in quality drives (Kent State's quality drive rate is a paltry 135th), but it helps keep games within reason, especially when the talent level is more even.
Mark Carney had his interim tag removed this year, a well-deserved move. The players love Carney, and Kent State is playing for something far later in the season than it was supposed to.
Those postseason aspirations could end this week, but it's a dynamic run for a Kent State team that was supposed to be at the bottom of the FBS.
Central Michigan vs Kent State Pick, Betting Analysis
Central Michigan opened as a modest -7.5 road favorite but climbed to -9.5 before settling at -8.5. The over/under rose from 45.5 to 49.5 following a 77-point shootout in Wagon Wheel.
Kent State's postseason aspirations hang in the balance Wednesday night. The Golden Flashes — who, in the preseason, had no business sniffing a bowl berth — sit 4-6 with a solid path to bowl eligibility should they pull off the upset here.
Central Michigan already has a spot in bowl season locked up but is still very much in the driver's seat for a spot in the MAC Championship. CMU needs some help, but Step 1 is to win out.
The Chippewas are just 2-4 away from Mount Pleasant, including a loss at Akron as -7 road favorites (lost 28-22). Kent State is 3-1 at home and 4-0 ATS.
Central Michigan has been a pretty opportunistic team this year.
It beat San Jose State (113th in FBS), Wagner (109th in FCS), Eastern Michigan (122nd), Bowling Green on the decline (also 120th), UMass (245th in all of Division I) and a wildly inconsistent Buffalo (110th).
There's not a single quality win on this schedule.
It's also a team that hasn't played overly well on the road. The Chips are 2-3 ATS away from home, and one of those covers came in Week 1 against a San Jose State team that was heavily favored in the market before taking a nosedive (current line projects to be CMU -2 vs. +13.5).
I'm betting against the turnover luck continuing in CMU's favor against a team that doesn't turn the ball over very much.
CMU also runs such a methodical offensive pace that, when the explosive passes aren't there, it can't build a huge lead so long as the opposing offense doesn't make back-breaking mistakes.
Kent State hasn't been prone to those mistakes this season and plays the ball-control game itself. This is a game that could legitimately have 16 or fewer possessions.
In a projected low-scoring MACtion game, I'm backing the home underdog getting spotted nearly double digits. The Flashes still have something to play for, though making a bowl is pretty far-fetched. I expect a strong fight from Kent State here.
Pick: Kent State +9.5
Central Michigan vs Kent State Betting Trends
