Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 7
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Arizona Wildcats quarterback Khalil Tate (14), wide receiver Cedric Peterson (18).
- Don't forget to sprinkle some moneyline underdogs into your college footballs picks for Week 7.
- Our college football experts give their two favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.
As we do each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday’s college football slate.
Last week, Western Michigan let me down while Florida came through for Collin in the swamp.
We’ve now somehow hit one of two for six weeks straight, which has returned a nice profit but we haven’t been able to marry them together on the same Saturday. Maybe this is the week!
For Week 7, we’re both rolling with a medium-sized underdog. I have you covered in the noon ET time slot while Collin is rolling with a late-night dog. If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays 8-1.
- 2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
- 2019: 6-6 +3.5 units
Stuckey: Tennessee +210 (vs. Mississippi State)
- Spread: Mississippi State -7
- Over/Under: 53
- Location: Knoxville, TN
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: SECN
Well, let’s get it started off early on Saturday with a noon kick by going back to the well with a Vols team that cost me two bets in one play when they allowed a late Georgia fumble return for a TD. (I’d also like to thank the SEC referee for providing a key screen on the play!)
But I actually saw some positive things from Tennessee last week in a game it was clearly outclassed in from a talent perspective.
Most importantly, the offense is clearly in much better shape with Brian Maurer under center. And head coach Jeremy Pruitt confirmed this week that the freshman will indeed start at quarterback this week.
But this is also a fade of a Mississippi State team that just isn’t right this year. The Bulldogs have played multiple quarterbacks, have dealt with a plethora of suspensions and have struggled mightily on defense.
After losing so much NFL talent, it’s no surprise that Mississippi State took a step back on defense but how big of a step has been shocking. Last season, the Bulldogs finished No. 1 in the nation with only 4.1 yards per play allowed. This year? They’re ranked 108th, allowing 6.3 yards per play. From the best to outside the top 100. That’s a shocking drop.
I thought maybe some of the teams they lost to were better than I thought. But after Kansas State won in Starkville, the Wildcats went on to lose by double digits at home against Oklahoma State and at home against Baylor. And after watching the Auburn offense barely able to complete a forward pass against Florida last week, knowing that Bo Nix threw for 335 yards against Mississippi State in a blowout win spoke volumes.
Even in a win and cover against Southern Miss, Mississippi State was outgained and gave up 6.5 yards per play. This defense is not good and the offense just can’t find any rhythm.
Now, Mississippi State is coming off a bye and may get some of its suspended players back, so maybe they can solve some of these issues. But I still see value in the Vols at +7 and on the moneyline here.
Wilson: Arizona +190 (vs. Washington)
- Spread: Washington -6
- Over/Under: 60
- Location: Tucson, AZ
- Time: 11 p.m. ET
- TV: FS1
Let’s get into some #Pac!2AfterDark, shall we?
The Huskies have fallen on hard times starting with an early season home loss to Cal. And things recently got worse in an ugly loss to a subpar Stanford team that almost gained 500 total yards.
There’s a bevy of issues on both sides of the ball for Washington. Similar to Mississippi State, we knew the defense would struggle after all of the turnover from last season at almost every position. But it’s been much uglier than I think anybody has thought.
The new starters rank 103rd in Line Yards, 119th in Power Success and 106th in Stuff Rate. This is not your older brother’s Washington defense and by far the worst rush D that head coach Chris Petersen has had during his tenure in Seattle. The Huskies 4.3 yards per rush allowed ranks 81st in the country; they finished in the top 25 at 3.5 last season.
Washington has also struggled some against the pass, ranking outside the top 75 in opponent passes over 20 yards.
Another reason for the loss to Stanford was the inefficient play of quarterback Jacob Eason, who threw for just 206 yards on 36 attempts. Washington sits outside the top 40 in Passing Success Rate — and that number falls to outside the top 75 on passing downs.
Eason will now face an Arizona defense that has been much better of late since it started using more 3-3-5 sets. The Arizona defense is by no means elite, but it makes up for that with plenty of explosiveness on the offensive side of the ball.
Arizona has had plenty of plays over 20 yards both in the air and on the ground and ranks in the top 10 in passes over 40 yards.
Expect a Washington team that ranks 80th in red zone points per attempt to have issues converting drives into touchdowns in order to keep up with quarterback Khalil Tate and the explosive Arizona offense.