The 2025-26 College Football Playoff continues on Thursday with another quarterfinal matchup between No. 5 Oregon and No. 4 Texas Tech.
Our experts from the Big Bets On Campus podcast have plenty of takes for this monster CFP game.
Let's take a look at our College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF predictions for Oregon vs. Texas Tech in the second round of the CFP below.
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Oregon vs. Texas Tech Odds
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
Collin Wilson's Pick: Oregon ML (-135 or Better)
You should see a more spirited effort from Oregon’s defense in this game, as Tosh Luopi changed the structure of the defense this season to more resemble what Ohio State did last year in the playoff.
The Ducks needed a roamer to do what Caleb Downs does, and they picked Dillon Thieneman for that role.
Unfortunately, that defense was awful against James Madsion, allowing 28 points in the second half alone.
However, Lupoi said he was somewhat happy with those results, as it should have the team fired up for the quarterfinal.
Altogether, I expect a much better effort against Texas Tech.
The Ducks were sloppy against James Madison, especially in the red zone.
There’s a narrative that Oregon isn’t a good red-zone defense. Still, the Ducks have only allowed 30 red-zone possessions on the entire season (ninth lowest nationally), so it’s hard to come to that conclusion, as there aren’t many data points — that said, they’ve allowed 21 scores on those 30 attempts.
We’ll see what happens with that, but there are plenty of little things that point toward Oregon winning this game.
The Ducks are better on Special Teams, they commit far fewer penalties, they’re better in the middle eight, and they’re better at tackling.
I also don’t like Texas Tech’s offensive line, which ranks 96th nationally in Line Yards, meaning Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams have to do all the work.
Unfortunately for them, that’s how you want to attack Oregon. You want to have a good offensive line that can get a push and establish the run. The Raiders’ offensive line has not controlled the trenches all season.
Texas Tech also ranks outside the top-25 nationally in creating Quality Drives, and the Raiders are awful in the red zone — in the Big 12 championship, they scored one touchdown on five trips inside the 20-yard line.
Tech won’t be able to create methodical drives against Oregon, the Raiders won’t score in the red area, and I don’t expect them to make explosive plays.
On the other side of the ball, Texas Tech has a nasty defensive line. But Oregon’s defense circumvents that by passing short, getting away from the defensive line while hitting the Raiders with flares and slants while dancing in space.
And that’s where you can take advantage of Texas Tech, as the Raiders rank 32nd nationally in broken tackles allowed — at the same time, Oregon ranks fifth in that metric.
Altogether, I don’t expect Williams and Dickey to create those highlight yards, while I expect Oregon’s playmakers to create explosives in space.
Oregon’s going to beat Texas Tech, but it’s going to be death by a thousand little paper cuts.
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Stuckey's Pick: Under 51.5 or Better · 1H Under
I will be on both the full-game and first-half Under.
I trust Texas Tech’s defense. While there are some questions about the cornerback room, the Raiders can get pressure behind an elite front seven, and they’re excellent on thrid downs.
This is not your typical Big 12 defense. This is the best front seven that money can buy.
Texas Tech does like to play up-tempo. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raiders slowed it down in this matchup, especially early on, as they try to feel out the game.
Plus, you want to run against Oregon, but Texas Tech’s rushing offense isn’t great.
Additionally, Behren Morton isn’t 100% healthy, and Texas Tech’s air raid-adjacent offense can have trouble establishing timing early in games.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the offense is all out of whack early, given that Texas Tech hasn’t faced a top-10 defense all season. You could argue that BYU and Utah have borderline top-10 defenses, and those games were ugly in the first half.
Oregon’s offense looked great against JMU, but the Ducks looked relatively pedestrian against elite Power Conference defenses (Penn State, Indiana, Iowa).
This is a surefire Under.
Duck's Pick: Under 51.5 or Better · 1H Under
We can trust Texas Tech’s defense, which has shown up week after week.
The Raiders do the right things. The front seven has combined for 39 sacks and 96 tackles for loss. They rank first nationally in yards per rush and third in Success Rate allowed. They don’t allow methodical drives or explosives. And they lock down in the red zone, allowing just 13 red-zone touchdowns all season.
I also expect Oregon’s defense to show up.
The Ducks’ defense has been feisty all season and has played well in big games (Penn State, Iowa, Washington, Indiana).
At the same time, Oregon’s offense has been a little sketchy in the red zone, scoring just 36 touchdowns on 53 trips. That’s good, but far from elite.
Both defenses can handle the speed from the opposing offenses. We should see sound assignment football played here. Both these teams should be well prepared. We should see some field goals kicked, which will keep the scoring down.
I also like the full-game and first-half under.
Calabrese's Pick: Under 51.5 · First-Half Under · Live Unders
I’m on board with the Under.
Stuckey and Duck covered it all, but I will add one thing.
Texas Tech struggles to finish drives, ranking 97th nationally in red-zone touchdown rate. That’s the only big struggle for Oregon’s defense, which has struggled with its back against the wall.
I also wouldn’t mind looking at a live Under. Texas Tech defensive coordinator Shiel Wood has made excellent in-game adjustments, and the Red Raiders have shut opposing offenses down late in games, allowing just 6.6 second-half points per game (sixth best in FBS).
Texas Tech faced three top-25 offenses this season, allowing eight points per game.
I think this total is a little inflated after Oregon dominated James Madison’s defense, but Dante Moore and Co. aren’t going to be that dominant against Texas Tech.
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