Welcome to the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff.
Eight teams will take the field in some of the biggest bowl games this week in an effort to move on to the CFP semifinals.
I broke down all 4 CFP quarterfinal games and dished out a pick for each.
We'll start with the Cotton Bowl on New Year's Eve, when the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes take on the No. 2 Ohio State Buckeyes in a game that features the largest spread of the quarterfinals.
Then, on New Year's Day, we'll head to the Orange Bowl, as the No. 5 Oregon Ducks meet the No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in a Big Ten/Big 12 battle.
We'll then turn our attention to the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, where the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide face the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
To close it all out, the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels and No. 3 Georgia Bulldogs play in a rematch from SEC regular-season play.
Let's take a look at my College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF predictions for the CFP quarterfinal games on Wednesday, Dec. 31, and Thursday, Jan. 1.
College Football Playoff Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week's slate of CFP games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. | |
  | Thursday, 12 p.m. | |
  | Thursday, 4 p.m. | |
  | Thursday, 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ohio State vs Miami Pick
The Miami Hurricanes take on the Ohio State Buckeyes in the 2025 Cotton Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals in Arlington, Texas, on Wednesday, Dec. 31. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Ohio State is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. Miami, meanwhile, enters as a +9.5 underdog and is +280 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 40.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami vs. Ohio State prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, December 31.
Miami Hurricanes
Miami advanced in the playoff after a defensive throttle of Texas A&M in College Station. The high-powered Aggies offense was limited to just a single explosive drive and a field goal in three red-zone attempts.
The Hurricanes flexed when defending the pass, intercepting Marcel Reed twice while keeping the potent receiving unit to a minimal impact.
Miami has been doing this all season for defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman, ranking top-15 in nearly every defensive category. This is the best pass rush in the nation, also fielding a top coverage unit that primarily uses Cover 3.
The Miami offense did enough against Texas A&M with 5.7 yards per play, but the Hurricanes failed to create a methodical drive of at least 10 plays in 12 offensive positions.
Quarterback Carson Beck leads an attack that has poor rankings in explosives, but is top-20 in creating quality drives. Beck threw for only 103 yards, with Keelan Marion and Malachi Toney generating the highest target share.
While the defense is the best at generating a pass rush, the offensive line ranks second in pass blocking.
The balanced attack is predicated on the Success Rate of running back Mark Fletcher Jr. in standard downs. The junior tore through the Aggies' run defenders for 172 yards on inside zone and man blocking run concepts.
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State will be on 25 days' rest when the Cotton Bowl is set to kick off. The Buckeyes are looking for a better result after losing the Big Ten Championship to eventual Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza. and Indiana.
Head coach Ryan Day, who will now call plays with offensive coordinator Brian Hartline heading to USF, saw his offense post high Success Rate numbers on the ground and through the air.
Half of the Buckeyes' nine possessions featured an explosive or methodical drive, but red-zone issues led to the loss against the Hoosiers.
Although Ohio State is second nationally in Finishing Drives, that number falls off in the red zone. The Buckeyes rank 43rd in red-zone scoring, generating just a single field goal and touchdown in tries against Indiana.
Day is expected to create more opportunities for the elite wide receiver combination of Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate. Personnel is expected to change, with Hartline's 12 personnel sets with two tight ends decreasing against the Hurricanes.
The biggest issue for Ohio State on the offensive side of the ball is protecting quarterback Julian Sayin from a Havoc-minded Miami defense. Sayin was sacked five times on 12 pressures against Indiana.
Defensive coordinator Matt Patricia's 4-2-5 defense held up against Indiana, proving top-10 rankings in Success Rate and limiting explosive plays.
Ohio State has failed to create a tough pass rush unit, but edge Caden Curry and Kenyatta Jackson Jr. generated 11 pressures and three sacks of Mendoza.
The Buckeyes have been the best defense in the nation, limiting standard downs explosives — an area where Miami ranks bottom-15 nationally.
Caleb Downs has been one of the best free safeties in the nation in creating one-on-one tackles, but linebacker Sonny Styles stole the show in the Big Ten Championship with 12 tackles and three assists.
Miami vs Ohio State Prediction
There's no expectation that Miami will generate any explosive plays against the Ohio State defense.
The Hurricanes are near dead last in Rush EPA and 71st in Pass EPA, heading straight into a Buckeyes defense that's top-five nationally in limiting chunk yardage.
Success on first down will be crucial for Miami, leading to the run concept usage with Fletcher. Miami runs a high rate of inside zone, pivoting between single and double tight end sets.
The secondary run concept is man blocking, as both run tendencies have a high 64% Success Rate.
Ohio State has ended offenses running inside zone and man-blocking concepts. The Buckeyes support a Success Rate of 56% or better against man blocking concepts without giving up a single explosive play the entire season.
The expectations for Day's offense are similar to the playoff run from a season ago: Get the ball into their receivers' hands with tempo. Ohio State has been a slug this season, averaging one of the slowest paces nationally at 31.8 seconds per play.
The Buckeyes have two glaring issues against the Miami defense.
First is a pass rush that will test the offensive tackle position. Left tackle Austin Siereveld ranks as a top-20 individual pass blocker, but right tackle Phillip Daniels sits outside the top 100. Miami edge Akheem Mesidor will get the assignment to put pressure on Sayin.
The second issue is a lack of consistent run game with Bo Jackson using zone read and counter concepts. Miami dominates both inside and outside zone, particularly when teams go lighter in the box as expected with Ohio State.
Opponents using counter have had no success against a Hurricanes stop unit with a 63% Success Rate against the concept.
The Cotton Bowl quarterfinal is expected to be a low-scoring affair.
Ohio State will find little success on the ground before facing an intense pass rush in late downs. The Buckeyes' rank of 68th in Stuff Rate will play a factor in short third- and fourth-down attempts.
Conversely, Miami has failed to create explosive plays the entire season.
With both offenses in a presumed rock fight, special teams could come in to play as the deciding factor. Miami ranks 12th in Special Teams SP+ compared to Ohio State's rank of 63rd. The Hurricanes excel as one of the top teams in punt and kickoff efficiency, so field position could be an advantage for head coach Mario Cristobal.
Action Network projects the spread lower than a touchdown, giving value to Miami in the current market.
A sinking total has been expected with the lack of offense. With such low scoring expected, the team with the better pass rush and special teams should do enough to potentially shake up the College Football Playoff.
Pick: Miami +9 or Better
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Texas Tech vs Oregon Pick
The Oregon Ducks take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl in Miami Gardens, Florida, on Thursday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Oregon is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. Texas Tech, meanwhile, enters as a +2.5 underdog and is +110 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 total points.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Texas Tech prediction and college football picks for Thursday, January 1.
Oregon Ducks
Oregon dominated James Madison in the opening round of the College Football Playoff, showing a full blitz of explosive offense and a new look at the defensive backfield.
Quarterback Dante Moore directed a Ducks offense that gained 61% of available yards in generating 9.7 yards per play.
Running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. combined for 16 carries and more than 150 yards.
The air attack was elite under Moore, as he connected 11 times with Malik Benson and Jeremiah McClellan for more than 200 yards and three touchdowns.
The 3-3-5 defense threw a number of wrinkles in the playbook in the season finale against Washington, showing the same tendencies against James Madison.
Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi implemented four down linemen and a beefier secondary to limit explosive plays.
Oregon has seen an increase in Cover 2 usage while allowing safety Dillon Thieneman to roam in a similar fashion as Caleb Downs for Ohio State.
The results were not up to Lupoi's standards, as James Madison scored 28 points in the second half for a cover.
The Ducks have ranked top010 this season in limiting pass explosives, but defending the rush has been an issue. Oregon has a middling rank in defending zone read but has dominated counter at a Success Rate of 66%.
The defense must improve in two areas to hang with Texas Tech: third downs and scoring opportunities.
Oregon has a low rank of 120th in red-zone touchdown scoring allowed, as 70% of opponent trips inside the 20-yard line have resulted in six points.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech enters the program's first playoff game after drawing one of the softer strengths of schedules this season. Outside of a loss at Arizona State, no other team closed within 23 points of the Red Raiders.
The high-powered offense had no issues disposing of BYU on two different occasions, posting a scoring differential of 63-14.
Offensive coordinator Mack Leftwich calls a balanced offense but has struggled to create a push through the offensive line. Texas Tech enters the playoff outside the top 95 in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, as the running backs have been responsible for creating highlight yards.
Quarterback Behren Morton has led the offense to a top-25 Passing Success Rate, finishing as the 27th-most accurate passer in FBS.
Wideout Caleb Douglas and slot Terrance Carter Jr. each ended the season at two yards per route run, but the offense has sputtered when close to the goal line.
The Red Raiders sit 96th in red-zone touchdown scoring rate, an issue that plagued head coach Joey McGuire's team down the stretch.
Texas Tech vs Oregon Prediction
Despite missing a number of key players at the wide receiver position, Oregon continues to post juggernaut numbers on offense. Davison powers the ground attack through zone read, serving as the primary red-zone option with 13 touchdowns this season.
Texas Tech has shut down every run concept this season, as Moore may be forced to throw into a Red Raiders defense that ranks as the top coverage unit in the nation.
The injury status of wide receiver Dakorien Moore is of importance in this game, as the freshman can catch the ball behind the line of scrimmage and make an entire defense whiff in tackling. Texas Tech ranks 32nd nationally in broken or missed tackles allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
The biggest black hole in handicapping this game is the red-zone battle between Texas Tech's offense and Oregon's defense.
Both units have poor numbers in red-zone efficiency and Finishing Drives, but the Ducks have limited offense in reaching the 20-yard line all season.
Meanwhile, Oregon has allowed 2.3 red-zone drives per game all season, good enough to rank in the top 10 of all FBS defenses.
Texas Tech has had hiccups in creating methodical drives, ranking 26th in offensive momentum killers. The Red Raiders have struggled to post touchdowns all season, entering the playoff with the 12th-highest field goal rate in 73 red-zone attempts.
There are a number of small indicators signaling a bonanza of offense with stalled red-zone attempts.
Texas Tech will create highlight yards on the ground with Cameron Dickey and J'Koby Williams, but Oregon's top-five rank in broken and missed tackles allowed will hold the Red Raiders back.
Morton will be challenged in limited red-zone attempts after posting just one touchdown in five attempts against BYU in the Big 12 Championship.
The Oregon offense is expected to throw around a Havoc-heavy defensive line, using options at wide receiver with screen dumps, flares and slants to stretch the field.
Ultimately, Oregon has better numbers in tackling, Middle 8, penalties and special teams, which provide the edge needed to advance.
Pick: Oregon ML -130 or Better
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Indiana vs Alabama Pick
The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals in Pasadena, California, on Thursday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -250. Alabama, meanwhile, enters as a +7 underdog and is +200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 48 total points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Indiana prediction and college football picks for Thursday, January 1.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama survived hostile territory in Norman, avenging an earlier-season loss to Oklahoma in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
The Sooners raced out to a 17-point lead before the Crimson Tide's passing offense answered the call. A methodical drive helped quarterback Ty Simpson get on the board, followed by a Zabien Brown pick-six to close the half tied.
The Sooners had no luck against defensive coordinator Kane Wommack in the second half, ending the game with consecutive punts and missed field goals.
However, Alabama's offense has become one-dimensional, as Oklahoma stuffed 17-of-21 Crimson Tide rushing attempts.
Simpson leads an offense that's heavy in pass efficiency, while the run game lags behind mid-FBS rankings in Stuff Rate, Line Yards and the ability to create explosives.
New faces are racing up the target share for Alabama, as Lotzeir Brooks and Isaiah Horton combined for 10 catches on 15 targets. Brooks failed to haul in a score all season but captured two touchdowns from Simpson against the Sooners.
The biggest note comes from the defensive line, where the Crimson Tide had a legitimate pass rush for the first time in 2025. Alabama finished the season ranked 127th in pass rush, generating just 20 sacks the entire season.
Mateer was harassed in the first round, as Alabama posted 15 defensive pressures and a single-game high of seven sacks. Linebacker Yhonzae Pierre led a group of seven different players to post a sack.
Alabama had one of the best defensive outings of the year, keeping Oklahoma from a methodical or explosive drive in 14 offensive possessions.
Indiana Hoosiers
Indiana football starts with a physical offensive line and a bully-ball style of rushing attack. The Hoosiers boast a 61% rush ratio that relies heavily on inside zone.
Running back Roman Hemby is the primary option for zone read, leading Indiana to the top overall rank in Rushing Success Rate.
The secondary run concept for the Hoosiers features man or gap blocking tendencies for the offensive line, with running back Kaelon Black serving as the top option.
Both running backs average at least 3.4 yards after first contact and have combined for 40 rushing attempts of at least 10 yards.
Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza leads an offense that has the highest rate of standard downs of any team in FBS.
Indiana comes in as the top overall team in quality drives, a number that's complemented by a rank of third in Finishing Drives. The Hoosiers have averaged 5.1 points on 89 possessions that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line.
On the other side, head coach Curt Cignetti continues to field a Havoc-minded defense. In fact, the Hoosiers lead the nation in that category. Indiana finished second nationally in tackles for loss, a number assisted by defensive edge Stephen Daley, who will miss the rest of the season.
Teams that have fallen into passing downs have had no success against Indiana, as the Hoosiers sit top-five in third-down defense and late-downs efficiency.
Indiana vs Alabama Prediction
Alabama doubled down as a one-dimensional offense against Oklahoma, as the Sooners stuffed 80% of rushing attempts. Simpson was under constant duress when it came to finding open targets, and a similar path is expected against Indiana.
Alabama has struggled to find any success on the ground with inside zone, a run concept that the Indiana defense knocks out of the park. The Hoosiers have a 58% Success Rate against inside zone, producing a negative play on one of every six attempts.
However, there may be an avenue for the passing attack to have success against an Indiana defense that's 73rd in creating a contested catch.
On the other side, Line Yards and Stuff Rate rankings indicate that Black and Hemby will have success moving the ball on the ground for Indiana.
Alabama posted mid-FBS rankings in defending inside zone. Hemby will be a more productive option because the Crimson Tide have shut down offenses using man.
Alabama should have more success than any other defense in terms of getting Mendoza to passing downs. However, the Cal transfer still had success this season against Cover 3 and Cover 2 looks, the primary coverage option for Wommack.
Mother Nature will have her say during this Rose Bowl, as a high percentage of precipitation is expected, with over six hours of rainfall.
The beneficiary of this weather would be Indiana's ground attack over Alabama's passing attack.
A wet environment favors the team with the better running game, along with a defense that makes fewer mistakes in tackling. Not only is Indiana the most efficient rushing attack in FBS, but the defense also ranks 15th in broken tackles allowed.
Conversely, Alabama has minimal presence in the running game, while the defense sits 113th in broken tackles allowed. per Sports Info Solutions.
Pick: Indiana -7 or Better
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Georgia vs Ole Miss Pick
The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Georgia Bulldogs in the Sugar Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals in New Orleans on Thursday, Jan. 1. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Georgia is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +200 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Georgia prediction and college football picks for Thursday, January 1.
Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss' high-octane offense hasn't had any speed bumps in the post-Lane Kiffin world. The Rebels generated 65% of available yards and two-plus first downs on 8-of-12 offensive possessions against Tulane.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. called a large number of explosive plays, which saw 12 different players receive a target from quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.
TD REBELS !
QB Trinidad Chambliss transperce la défense de la Green Wave et Ole Miss prend déjà le large face à Tulane. 14-0.
📺 TNTpic.twitter.com/jcHsbLantF
— TBP College Football (@thebluepennant) December 20, 2025
Ole Miss has been a run-first team with running back Kewan Lacy, using two primary run concepts: inside zone and power. The Rebels haven't been the most explosive on the ground this season, but they've posted an explosive on one of every four attempts using power.
Chambliss continues to play flawless football under center with 22 big-time throws to just eight turnover-worthy plays.
New head coach Pete Golding continued to call the nickel defense and fared well in keeping Tulane out of the red zone in the first round. The Green Wave managed to get a single drive inside the Ole Miss 20-yard line, generating only a field goal.
The issues that have plagued the Ole Miss defense all season were tucked away against Tulane, but the Rebels remain outside the top 100 in Line Yards and rush explosives allowed.
The Georgia offense lit up Ole Miss in the first meeting this season, posting a 63% Success Rate on the ground with three explosives.
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia has transformed on defense throughout the season, allowing 10 points or fewer in the past four games.
The Bulldogs struggled to create a pass rush for most of the season, but that may no longer be applicable.
Defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann sends one of the lowest amounts of blitz in FBS, but the Dawgs produced three sacks in recent games against Alabama and Texas.
Those numbers are backed by a high amount of quarterback harassment with a combined 54 pressures against the Crimson Tide and Longhorns.
There hasn't been one defensive player responsible for the boost in Havoc, as 17 different Bulldogs created a pressure against Alabama in the SEC Championship.
Georgia elects to run the ball on 59% of snaps behind the duo of quarterback Gunner Stockton and running back Nate Frazier.
Inside zone with an even split of attempts in 11 and 12 personnel is the bread and butter of the Georgia offense. Each version of the concept has produced a minimum 58% Success Rate.
Although, on the season, the Bulldogs ranked 86th in generating explosives.
Georgia has been nearly unstoppable in the red zone when it comes to generating six points. The Bulldogs rank second nationally in red-zone touchdown rate, as only five of their 40 scores have been worth three points.
Georgia vs Ole Miss Prediction
Georgia took Ole Miss' best shot during the Week 8 game in Athens. The Rebels scored a touchdown on their first five offensive possessions of the game, leaving UGA's defensive staff searching for adjustments.
The Bulldogs caught a second wind on both sides of the ball and dominated the fourth quarter, 17-0, to seal the victory. Ole Miss' final three possessions of the game ended in two punts and a turnover on downs.
The biggest question is if the dynamics have changed with either team since Georgia's Week 8 victory.
Although Ole Miss didn't see a drop offensively with Kiffin no longer on the sidelines, there's reason to think Georgia's defense will be better this time around.
Not only are the Bulldogs generating more pressure on the quarterback, but the defense is the standard for tackling analytics. Georgia ranks first among all defenses in PFF tackling, with Sports Info Solutions placing the Bulldogs as the 18th-best unit in terms of broken tackles allowed.
Despite elusive running from Chambliss and Lacy all season, Georgia missed just eight tackles in the Week 8 victory over the Rebels.
Conversely, there may be no answers for Golding's defense in terms of stopping Georgia's run game. Even as Ole Miss keyed in on UGA's rushing attack, Stockton found a way to connect with tight end Lawson Luckie for three passing touchdowns.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for a six-point win by Georgia, in line with the current market leading up to the Sugar Bowl.
There's an expectation that Ole Miss will come out firing, taking advantage of a Bulldogs team that has struggled in the scripted portion of games. Look to catch Georgia live on the moneyline or get a National Championship future down.
Ole Miss will struggle for four quarters to keep an elite red-zone rushing team out of the end zone. Georgia should advance to face the winner of Ohio State and Miami.
Pick: Georgia Team Total Over 30.5 · Georgia to Win National Championship (+600)
