The No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders (12-1, 8-1 Big 12) take on the No. 5 Oregon Ducks (12-1, 8-1 Big Ten) in the 2025 Orange Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Thursday, Jan. 1, at 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Oregon, which enters as a -2.5 favorite, nearly put together an undefeated regular season but fell to No. 1 seed Indiana, 30-20, on Oct. 11. The Ducks have won 7 in a row since and are coming off a 51-34 shellacking of James Madison in the first round of the College Football Playoff.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, rolled to a Big 12 Championship. The Red Raiders likely would have gone undefeated if it weren't for a 26-22 loss to Arizona State when they were playing without starting quarterback Behren Morton.
With a short spread, who holds the advantage in this Orange Bowl quarterfinals matchup?
We polled 10 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Texas Tech vs. Oregon picks and college football predictions for the College Football Playoff on Thursday, Jan. 1.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Texas Tech +2.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff is truly split here on this one with a slight lean to the Red Raiders, and I can agree with the sentiment.
I trust this Tech defense to show up, just as it has all season.
Texas Tech leads the nation in yards per rush allowed this season, giving up just 2.3 yards per carry. The front has secured 39 sacks and 96 tackles for loss, and Tech has held 11 opponents to 17 points or less on the season.
The Red Raiders don't allow explosive plays, and their situational defense on third downs and in the red zone defense has been outstanding all season.
Oregon struggled against the tougher, more physical defenses it faced this season. Nothing was easy against Indiana, Iowa or Wisconsin, as the Ducks averaged just 143 passing yards per game in those three games.
Without the explosiveness in the run game, the Ducks struggled to generate scoring opportunities. I could see Oregon struggling to run the ball effectively here, which will put a lot on the shoulders of quarterback Dante Moore in terms of generating explosives through the air.
The Red Raiders rank fourth nationally in Passing Success Rate allowed and second in Havoc created. This battle in the trenches will be one that decides who wins this game.
Texas Tech's offense has been much more balanced this season than we had been accustomed to seeing from the Red Raiders.
The ground game has been effective with Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams combining for 1,882 yards rushing and 20 rushing scores.
I believe we'll see Texas Tech have success on the ground, and the passing game will challenge the Oregon secondary.
Quarterback Behren Morton has been efficient this season and has done a nice job of taking care of the football, throwing only four interceptions in 300 total pass attempts.
This is going to be an incredible matchup to open the Saturday slate.
Ultimately, I still feel Texas Tech is a tad undervalued in the market despite its body of work this season. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Red Raiders come away with an outright win.
Over/Under Pick
Over 51.5 | 1 Pick |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 51.5 | 8 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 51.5
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff is in near lockstep with the point total in this quarterfinal. Eight of our 10 voters lean under here.
As good as both offenses have been this season — Oregon ranks fourth in Points Per Drive, while Texas Tech ranks 18th — this is a clear step up in class for both offenses.
Oregon has the best data point after going against an elite defense in Indiana at home. The Ducks scored 20, but the offense accounted for only one touchdown (Oregon returned an interception for a touchdown in the second half).
The Hoosiers dominated the line of scrimmage, sacking quarterback Dante Moore four times and holding the Ducks to just 36% of available yards.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, allowed 20 points twice this year (in a 26-22 loss to Arizona State and in a 43-20 win over Kansas State) but otherwise held its opponents to 10 or fewer six times, including in its last four games.
That includes games against strong offenses like Utah (10 points) and BYU twice (seven each time). It’s no surprise that Tech finished the year first in Points Per Drive allowed.
It’s strength-on-strength here, as Texas Tech’s No. 1 run defense (EPA Per Rush allowed) goes against Oregon’s No. 1 rushing offense (Success Rate).
The Ducks average 5.9 yards per carry, second only to Utah on the season. But it was held to just 81 yards on the ground by Indiana.
The Joe Moore Award finalist offensive line unit for Oregon crumbled in that game, and now it faces a ferocious Tech defensive line that ranks inside the top 15 in Line Yards and in the top 20 in Stuff Rate.
On the opposite side, Oregon excels in its pass defense, holding teams to the second-worst passer rating and eighth-worst EPA Per Dropback in the country.
Tech’s offense works best when QB Behren Morton can move the football effectively, so that's a tough matchup.
With two strength-on-strength matchups here, it makes sense our staff would lean under above the key number of 51.
First-Half Pick
1H Under 26.5 (Play to 24.5)
By Joshua Nunn
I have significant concerns about Oregon’s ability to move the ball on a nasty Texas Tech defense that ranks first nationally in yards per carry allowed and second in Havoc.
The Red Raiders' front has racked up 39 sacks and 96 tackles for loss this season, and the stop unit has performed exquisitely in the red zone. Tech has given up just 13 red-zone touchdowns all season, and Oregon's offense has struggled to convert scoring opportunities into points at times.
Texas Tech also has a much more balanced offense this season — dare I say it's run-heavy?
The offense has leaned on running backs Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams consistently, as Tech has been less explosive in the passing game this season. We could see these backs exploit Oregon’s run defense early on.
I also have slight concerns about Texas Tech's offensive performance in the red zone.
The Red Raiders have reached the red zone and not scored a touchdown 32 times this year. They've also settled for 23 red-zone field goals this season, so I could see Oregon’s strong defensive front causing problems for Tech once the field is condensed.
This game should trend under and be lower-scoring. It all starts with a first-half under in a matchup between two exceptional defensive football teams.
Texas Tech vs. Oregon Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -140 |
- Texas Tech vs. Oregon Spread: Texas Tech +2.5, Oregon -2.5
- Texas Tech vs. Oregon Total: 51.5
- Texas Tech vs. Oregon Moneyline: Texas Tech +115, Oregon -140
