The No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (13-0, 9-0 Big Ten) take on the No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide (11-3, 7-1 SEC) in the 2025 Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Thursday, Jan. 1, at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana, which enters as a -7 favorite, has been dominant all season. The Hoosiers rolled to a 12-0 regular season and then toppled then-No. 1 Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, 13-10.
That win over the Buckeyes gave IU the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff and further enhanced head coach Curt Cignetti's miracle turnaround in Bloomington.
Alabama, meanwhile, reached the SEC Championship but lost to Georgia, 28-7. The Crimson Tide still secured a playoff spot and overcame a 17-0 halftime deficit against Oklahoma in the first round before completing a 34-24 comeback win.
With a touchdown spread, who holds the advantage in this Rose Bowl quarterfinals matchup?
We polled 7 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Indiana vs. Alabama picks and college football predictions for the Rose Bowl and College Football Playoff on Thursday, Jan. 1.
Indiana vs. Alabama Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Alabama +7
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff was split on this one, with a slight lean toward Alabama to cover this number.
The Tide are going to have to draw up an excellent game plan, and quarterback Ty Simpson is going to have to play his best football of the season as he faces an elite defensive front for Indiana.
Alabama has weapons on the outside that can stretch the field and make tough, contested catches.
Germie Bernard and Isaiah Horton have such a burst in and out of their route breaks, and head coach Kalen DeBoer can scheme up unique route combos that can get his guys in space with the football.
If Ryan Williams can re-emerge as the go-to guy for the Tide out of the slot, there's a path to Alabama having some success moving the ball here.
On the other side of the ball, Kane Wommack is a solid defensive coordinator for Alabama. His 3-3-5 looks can create issues for the opposition, so Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza will need to execute in passing downs.
Alabama is going to have to get some pressure and get Indiana off-schedule — something no Hoosiers opponent has been able to do all season.
If the Tide can force a few turnovers, or make a play on special teams, they can stay in this game late into the fourth quarter.
My concern in betting Alabama would be its ineffectiveness in the run game, which has been a consistent theme all season.
The Tide have been held under 120 yards rushing as a team 10 times this season, and there are going to be situations where Alabama will have to produce on the ground.
If it finds a competent ground attack here, it can sustain possessions and move the chains consistently enough to keep it close.
Alabama has been somewhat inconsistent this year, with three top-10 wins and some puzzling late-season performances.
If the Tide are at their best, they can play with anyone in the country, but when they're not, they can lose to Florida State. They'll need to be at their best in this one.
Indiana vs. Alabama Over/Under Pick
Over 48.5 | 2 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 48.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 48.5
By Road to CFB
The Action Network staff is fairly evenly split on the game total for the Rose Bowl, but the under has a slight nod here.
Not even the most talented offenses in the country (Oregon, Ohio State) were able to overcome the vicious Indiana defensive front. The Hoosiers held both to a single offensive touchdown (Oregon scored its second touchdown on a pick-six) and completely overwhelmed both offensive lines.
Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin took a season-high five sacks — increasing his season total by 40% — while Oregon QB Dante Moore took six, almost half of his season total.
Penn State mitigated the domination by getting the ball to the perimeter quickly to Nick Singleton. The Nittany Lions scored 24, which was the most Indiana allowed all year.
Alabama’s offense can be shelved by elite defensive lines. It floundered for just seven points against Georgia, a game the Tide rushed for negative three yards. Alabama has nearly abandoned the run game after following that up with 28 rushing yards against Oklahoma — a game it scored 27 points in (the defense scored a touchdown itself).
With no threat in the run game, Indiana pass-rushers like Mario Landino and Rolijah Hardy can pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has taken 10 sacks in the Tide's last three games (Auburn, Georgia, Oklahoma) and another 12 in games against Oklahoma, Vanderbilt and Missouri.
While his offensive line is responsible for allowing the most pressures among CFP teams, Simpson’s 19.2% pressure-to-sack ratio is concerning and moves much of the blame to Simpson himself.
I expect Indiana’s defensive front to wreak Havoc on Simpson and Alabama.
With such a concern for the offense, the under seems like the right side here, barring a complete obliteration delivered by Indiana, where it scores most of the points itself.
Efficient though it is, Indiana runs 67 plays per game (60th) at 29.4 seconds per play, 11th-slowest in the country. Possible, but not entirely likely that Indiana breaks 40 here.
Indiana vs. Alabama Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -105 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -115 | 48.5 -105o / -115u | +200 |
- Indiana vs. Alabama Spread: Indiana -7, Alabama +7
- Indiana vs. Alabama Over/Under: 48.5
- Indiana vs. Alabama Moneyline: Indiana -250, Indiana +200
