This year’s Orange Bowl is a meeting between new money and old… new money.
From the moment that Phil Knight opened up his checkbook in the Pacific Northwest, Oregon became a serious player on the national scene.
Before Oregon’s megadonor made an impact in Eugene, the football program was suffering through three decades of irrelevance.
But once the money started flowing in the early 1990s, Rich Brooks took the Ducks to the Rose Bowl. Then Mike Bellotti built on that success with three top-10 finishes from 2000-08.
This led to the Chip Kelly era of Oregon football.
Kelly’s blur offense took the sport by storm. In five seasons between 2010-14, Kelly and his successor, Mark Helfrich, amassed 60 wins and four top-four finishes in the AP Poll.
They won’t achieve blue-blood status until they hang a National Championship banner, but 30-plus years of elite football have elevated the program past any “new money” accusations.
Texas Tech, meanwhile, has burst onto the national scene thanks to an investment strategy that's sure to be studied long after the final whistle of the season.
Cody Campbell founded Texas Tech’s NIL collective, the Matador Club. This is arguably the most effective and well-funded collective in all of college sports.
Unlike Knight’s initial strategy of enhancing UO’s facilities, providing its players with flashy helmets and uniforms, and offering top-end coaching compensation, Campbell’s war chest lured some of the sport's best players to Lubbock.
The end result is an uber-talented roster, particularly on the defensive side of the ball.
So, what's going to happen when the new “It Girl” in college football meets the old one? Let's take a look at my 2025 Orange Bowl picks and my College Football Playoff predictions for Texas Tech vs. Oregon in the CFP quarterfinals.
Texas Tech vs. Oregon Odds for 2025 Orange Bowl
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | +114 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 50.5 -112o / -108u | -135 |
Unders have cashed at a 63% clip this bowl season. There are a handful of plausible explanations for this trend.
Offenses have been disproportionately impacted by opt-outs, with green quarterbacks starting a handful of bowl games with little to no experience.
Coaching staffs have also been shaken up across the sport, forcing new play-callers onto the headset in multiple bowl games. While defensive playcallers can simplify their calls with vanilla looks, new OCs have been hamstrung by pared-down playbooks.
There are also a handful of elite defenses playing in the postseason this year, and that includes Oregon and Texas Tech.
If you’re playing an under, you’re always looking to avoid explosive plays, and these two defenses simply don’t allow them. The Ducks rank second in big-play prevention on defense. Texas Tech? All the way down at third nationally.
And if you’re thinking about marching the ball downfield on the Ducks, think again. Defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi’s unit finished 10th in preventing methodical drives.
Tempo also plays a big part in any total, and Oregon has pulled a 180 in recent years.
The blur offense is a thing of the past for Oregon. Under Chip Kelly, the Ducks were consistently a top-10 offense in terms of tempo and seconds between plays. This season, UO finished 102nd in seconds between plays.
Texas Tech does like to push the tempo, but it's an under bettor’s best friend once it gets into the red zone. The Red Raiders finished 97th in touchdown rate in the red zone. A few stalled drives where TTU settles for field goals instead of touchdowns could be the difference here.
The final piece of this under is Texas Tech’s defensive staff.
Red Raiders defensive coordinator Shiel Wood consistently makes great halftime adjustments. Texas Tech allowed just 6.6 second-half points, which was sixth-best in FBS.
And when the Red Raiders played up in their three games against top-25 offenses (per SP+), they held those opponents to eight points per game.
With few explosive plays, red-zone struggles and elite defensive coaching, everything is pointing to a play on the under in Miami.
Pick: Under 52.5
