Texas vs Kansas State Pick, Odds | College Football Betting Preview
John E. Moore III/Getty Images. Pictured: Running back DJ Giddens of the Kansas State Wildcats.
Texas vs Kansas State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -175 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +145 |
In a year of transition, the Big 12 is set for collision over the month of November. Five teams sit at 4-1 in the conference with hopes of participating in the Big 12 Championship game in Arlington.
Kansas State and Texas are both in the thick of it, as Week 10 will serve as a knockout punch to the loser in Austin.
The only loss in conference loss for the Wildcats came against Oklahoma State in Week 6, while the Longhorns suffered defeat against Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry.
Both teams have seen a change at the quarterback positions in recent weeks.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian lost Quinn Ewers to an AC joint sprain that's expected to linger through the remainder of the regular season. Texas beat oddsmakers' expectations in Week 9 with a sound victory over BYU with Maalik Murphy at the helm.
For the Wildcats, head coach Chris Klieman has a freshman sensation in the fold. After losing Deuce Vaughn and Adrian Martinez from last year's Big 12 Championship team, this offense may be just as explosive and efficient on the ground as the 2022 version.
The winner of this game will be a favorite in Arlington, while the loser will be the Big 12 bowl team no program wants to face.
Murphy took over starting quarterback duties in a Week 9 victory over BYU, completing 16 of his 26 passes for 170 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The redshirt freshman utilized low-risk passing, completing 12-of-17 attempts shorter than 10 yards.
Wide receiver Xavier Worthy was the primary hot route for Murphy, receiving 10 targets for four catches and three drops. Murphy targeted Georgia transfer AD Mitchell in scoring position, as the combination linked up for both touchdown throws on the day.
Maalik Murphy’s first career TD pass goes to AD Mitchell. 🤘 pic.twitter.com/0HUapvCE7P
— TFB Texas (@TFB_Texas) October 28, 2023
While the spotlight was on the offensive side for Texas in Week 9, it's the defense that continues to elevate the program.
BYU was limited to just 30% of available yards and nearly no success in scoring position. Texas ranks sixth in Defensive Finishing Drives this season, allowing just 2.6 points per opponent drive that crosses the 40-yard line.
Of utmost importance in this game is the rush defense, ranking top-16 in Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate with the ninth-toughest strength of schedule in the country.
Defensive interior T'Vondre Sweat grades out as the second-best run defender of all players in FBS, per PFF.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's 4-2-5 defense has been highly successful in standard downs, forcing the most three-and-outs in FBS at 87.5%.
No offense is peaking in college football as much as Kansas State entering the month of November.
The Wildcats play in 11 and 12 personnel with every run concept in the book, from inside zone and power to pull lead and counter.
Kansas State has been one of the most explosive rush units with pulling linemen, owning a 64% Success Rate accompanied by a high 0.58 Expected Points per Attempt.
Running back DJ Giddens has been a workhorse, averaging 3.2 yards after contact while creating 40 missed tackles.
The offense is even more electric in designed run calls for the two-quarterback system with Will Howard and Avery Johnson. Combined, the two signal-callers have generated more than 550 yards from designed play calls, led by an offensive line that ranks 12th in run blocking, per PFF.
Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman has seen improvement from the 3-3-5 scheme, ranking top-15 in opponent Rushing Success Rate and Line Yards.
The defense has limited opposing offenses in driving the field and cashing in on scoring opportunities with a top-20 rank in Quality and Finishing Drives.
The one question with the Wildcats is the strength of schedule, including the offenses faced. Kansas State suffered early one-possession losses to Missouri and Oklahoma State but has not allowed any team to score more than 31 points so far this season.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Texas match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 10 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 7 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 40 | 25 |
Texas Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 75 | 12 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 35 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 10 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 19 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 102 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 46 | 67 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 48 | 39 |
| Middle 8 | 94 | 81 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (62) | 26.3 (58) |
| Rush Rate | 57.7% (28) | 54.9% (58) |
Texas vs Kansas State
Pick, Prediction
The Texas offense continues to struggle in scoring position, averaging just 3.9 points per possession in opportunities beyond the 40-yard line. Those numbers continue to fall the closer the Longhorns get to the goal line, as they rank 120th in red-zone touchdown rate.
If there's a defense that excels in keeping opponents out of the end zone, it's the Wildcats. Kansas State comes in at 10th in Defensive Finishing Drives and third nationally in opponent red-zone touchdown rate.
Murphy had no issues with BYU's coverage unit that ran a mixture of Cover 1 and Cover 3. Murphy, the redshirt freshman, will get a completely different look against Kansas State with a coverage package that's heavy in quarters, four-deep and three-under zone using man-to-man principles.
This coverage will allow Kansas State to double Mitchell and Worthy, the biggest area of focus considering the lack of rushing success from the Longhorns offense.
The Wildcats will also send blitz on 31% of defensive snaps, an area Murphy has struggled with in terms of adjusted completion rate in crowded pockets.
On the other side of the ball, there's hope Texas can put up a few hurdles for the Kansas State rushing attack. The Longhorns have had the most success against outside zone, a rush concept that's used the least by the Wildcats.
Texas has middling success against inside zone in 94 attempts by opponents. The large unknown is Kwiatkowski's front seven against pulling linemen and counter concepts — something the Texas defense has seen on just 33 opponent rushing attempts this season.
This could be a low-scoring affair, as Murphy will see quarters coverage for the first time from this Kansas State defense.
Texas has severe struggles in getting methodical drives to generate points on the scoreboard, evidenced by a large contrast in touchdown ratio with these teams.
As for Kansas State, the offensive ground attack is expected to show looks the Texas front seven has not seen this season. Even with experience against inside zone, Texas has yet to see this run concept from an offense with multiple running backs or tight ends.
Action Network projects Texas as a three-point favorite in a game with a few unknowns.
Because Murphy has yet to face quarters coverage and the Texas defense has not seen run concepts from the personnel Kansas State is set to present, look for the game to start slow on both sides of the ball.
The Wildcats will methodically move down the field with pulling linemen and counter concepts, while Texas will attempt to establish consistency against a Kansas State defense that's in protect mode against explosives.
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