South Carolina vs. Arkansas Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Saturday’s Over/Under
Photo by Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Bumper Pool (Arkansas)
South Carolina vs. Arkansas Odds
|South Carolina Odds|
-105o / -115u
-105o / -115u
This is an underrated quarterback matchup.
Spencer Rattler took a lot of heat for his performance at Oklahoma, but let's not forget who this is. He's a blue-chip prospect who put up a 92.5 PFF grade in his 2020 season. It's nuts not to upgrade the South Carolina offense with Rattler under center.
In the meantime, KJ Jefferson is starting to get the love he deserves. He's one of the top three quarterbacks in the SEC, and last week's performance against Cincinnati only confirms that.
The rest of the South Carolina team is still a question mark, and its 21-point victory over Georgia State was surprisingly unconvincing.
But should the Gamecocks be catching almost nine points in Fayetteville?
Let's find out.
There are several concerning metrics from the Gamecocks' Week 1 win.
First, how much luck was involved?
South Carolina put up 20 points on four drives past its opponent's 40-yard line. But Georgia State produced six such drives and only came away with seven points. This was a top-30 unit in Defensive Finishing Drives last year, but it should be producing more opportunities than Georgia State.
Plus, don't forget that 20 of the Cocks' 35 points came on special teams (two 50+-yard field goals, two blocked punts).
Second, the offense put up putrid efficiency marks. The Gamecocks finished with a 40% Success Rate on Standard Downs and a 28% Success Rate on Passing Downs. A 35% Success Rate against Georgia State with nine returning starters — including four on the offensive line — is not good.
Finally, Rattler looked bad. He finished 23-for-37, but could only muster 6.4 yards per attempt. He also threw two picks with a 1:3 Big Time Throw to Turnover Worthy Play ratio.
It's always been a mixed bag with Rattler. The numbers are horrendous, but this is the type of throw that makes you consider getting back with your ex:
I truly think Spencer Rattler can bounce back this season and become a legit NFL prospect.
This throw is literally insane. Perfect touch, velocity and ball placement while throwing on the run.pic.twitter.com/iDTHgrBd6e
— Luca Sartirana (@SartiranaLuca) September 4, 2022
I'm quite worried about the South Carolina front seven entering this one. Arkansas has a dual-threat quarterback and ran for 224 yards on five yards per carry against Cincinnati. The Gamecocks' defense returns just one starter on a defensive line that finished 112th in Defensive Line Yards last season.
Georgia State carved up the Gamecocks for 200 yards at five yards per carry. That doesn't bode well for this Week 2 matchup.
Say what you want about Cincinnati, but the Razorbacks dropping 31 on Luke Fickell's defense is a victory.
Jefferson is a menace. He tossed 223 yards on just 18-for-26 passing and added three touchdowns. He also followed his four returning offensive linemen to an extra 60 yards rushing and a score. He made no Turnover Worthy Plays in the process.
Jefferson is one of the most dynamic players in college football, and he adds a dimension to this Arkansas offense that will make it a tough out all year long.
Having a guy like that in the red zone is why the Razorbacks finished with 5.2 Points Per Opportunity against Cincinnati.
KJ Jefferson with the jump-pass TD 🎯
— Bleacher Report CFB (@BR_CFB) September 3, 2022
But that's when the problems arise.
The Razorbacks' defense allowed the Bearcats to produce nine drives past their 40-yard line. Cincinnati came away with just 24 points on those opportunities. There's regression coming, and the two turnovers the Bearcats produced went a long way in the one-score victory.
Plus, Arkansas fumbled three times but recovered two of them. Those are other lucky breaks in a one-score game.
Arkansas also finished with lower Success Rates on both Standard Downs and Passing Downs. Cincinnati's offense is going through an identity crisis and still managed to move the ball convincingly on Arkansas.
That's not crazy, however, considering Arkansas returned just four defensive starters and one of its top five tacklers.
South Carolina vs. Arkansas Betting Pick
The over has already taken sharp money, being pushed up to 53 at some books from the opener of 52.5.
The line movement is legitimate. Following their Week 1 results, I am worried about both defenses and believe there is regression coming for both units after some red-area luck.
I shouldn't have to convince you about the Arkansas offense anymore. The Razorbacks are going to carve up South Carolina on the ground.
But there's talent past Rattler on South Carolina, too. With nine returning starters, an experienced offensive line, the top two receivers from 2021 back and running back Christian Beal-Smith transferring from Wake Forest, this offense won't go all year with an Offensive Success Rate below 35%.
And again, Cincinnati produced nine drives past the Razorbacks' 40-yard line. Sam Pittman's defense is exploitable.
Considering the Finishing Drives luck for both defenses in Week 1, Vegas placed this total far too low. I'm hammering 53 and betting the over at anything short of 59.