College football Week 7 is a big one, so get ready.
I broke down four big games and dished out a pick for each.
We'll start out in Columbia, Missouri, where the No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide take on the No. 14 Missouri Tigers in a top-15 SEC showdown.
Then, the 3:30 p.m. ET window is a big one.
We'll head south to Texas and west to Eugene, where the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners take on the Texas Longhorns and the No. 3 Oregon Ducks host the No. 7 Indiana Hoosiers.
Finally, we'll close things out with a Big Ten battle on the West Coast, where the No. 15 Michigan Wolverines meet the USC Trojans across three time zones.
Let's take a look at my Week 7 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Saturday, October 11.
College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from Saturday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alabama vs Missouri Pick
The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Missouri, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by 3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -155. Missouri, meanwhile, comes in as a +3 underdog and is +130 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Missouri prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The return of Jam Miller in the Alabama backfield did not produce an uptick against Georgia, but the Crimson Tide's victory over Vanderbilt included plenty of rushing success.
Miller averaged more than six yards per carry on 22 totes, giving the offense a 62% Success Rate on the ground.
While Alabama still sits outside the top 100 in rush efficiency, the Crimson Tide created three methodical drives and two explosive drives against the Commodores.
Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack continued to field a struggling defense, generating a pass rush and rush explosiveness allowed ranking outside of the top 100.
Vanderbilt averaged 8.1 yards per carry using predominantly man and power blocking concepts, including a 65-yard explosive by Sedrick Alexander.
Inside zone and man rush concepts have been the Achilles heel for the Crimson Tide defense.
Although Alabama has been elite in preventing drives from ending in a score, the limited red-zone data includes nine opponent attempts with six touchdowns and no field goals.
Missouri Tigers
Missouri doesn't have a schedule strength in the top 100 so far this season. Its Week 4 victory over South Carolina was the only game to fall within single digits, and it ended with a 91% post-game win expectancy.
The addition of Ahmad Hardy from UL Monroe has elevated the Tigers' rushing attack, which calls zone read on nearly 50% of attempts.
While man blocking concepts have not generated explosives, the scheme has produced a high 72% Success Rate on 60 carries.
Hardy has forced 46 missed tackles in 104 rushing attempts, ranking him as the highest-graded running back in elusiveness, per PFF.
While Hardy powers the offense on the ground and quarterback Beau Pribula runs it through the air, there's reason to inspect the nickel defense.
Missouri sits outside the top 50 in coverage grading and in the bottom 20 of all teams in Finishing Drives allowed. The sample size is limited, as 12 opponent possessions to reach scoring position have produced an average of 4.5 points.
Alabama vs Missouri Prediction
There's a stark contrast in strength of schedule between these two teams, but a question remains: Will the Alabama defense be able to tackle Hardy?
The Crimson Tide have been successful against most run concepts with the exception of inside zone, a concept in the Tigers' arsenal that they've run at the second-highest rate.
Alabama ranks 78th in Defensive Stuff Rate, so the expectation is that Hardy will bust through the line of scrimmage.
However, Hardy isn't expected to create nearly as many missed tackles, as the Crimson Tide defense committed just 13 combined against Vanderbilt and Georgia.
Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has been near immaculate this season, posting an adjusted completion percentage of 81% with 13 touchdowns. In 111 completions on 158 attempts, 10 of the misfires have come from drops.
Missouri will show primarily Cover 3, a secondary tendency that Simpson has dominated this season. Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels posted six explosives through the air against the Tigers defense, along with a passing downs Success Rate 10% higher than the national average.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings favor Alabama by a single point, giving Missouri the edge in the market.
The Tigers have two major factors working in the favor: Alabama's inability to stop inside zone and the situational spot.
The Crimson Tide are coming off two physical games against Vanderbilt and Georgia, while Missouri has had two weeks to prepare after facing UMass for homecoming weekend on Sept. 27.
Alabama was in this exact scenario last season, a small non-cover win over South Carolina after facing Georgia and Vanderbilt.
Pick: Missouri +3 or Better
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Oklahoma vs Texas Pick
The Oklahoma Sooners take on the Texas Longhorns in Dallas, TX, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -120. Oklahoma, meanwhile, comes in as a +1 underdog and is +100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 43 points.
Here’s my Oklahoma vs. Texas prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Oklahoma Sooners
There seems to be little doubt about the status of quarterback John Mateer, as the market took an early-week turn with steam on the Sooners.
The Washington State transfer suffered an injury against Auburn on Sept. 20, which resulted in surgery on his throwing hand.
Mateer hasn't committed a turnover-worthy play since Week 2 against Michigan, but offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle may have him limited to an extensive ground package in this one.
The senior has generated 156 yards on designed calls, posting five rushing touchdowns on the season.
Brent Venables' move to call plays on defense has paid off, as Oklahoma fields one of the best units in the nation. The Sooners rank top-six in Havoc, Success Rate allowed, Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
A poor grade in rush explosives is due to playing Michigan and Auburn, as the Sooners allowed five rushing attempts of at least 12 yards against those two foes.
Oklahoma has been highly efficient against any opposing run concepts and also ranks top-30 in coverage for multiple defenses.
Pivoting between a nickel and 4-3, Oklahoma has played one of the highest rates of Cover 2 nationally with safeties Peyton Bowen and Robert Spears-Jennings.
Texas Longhorns
The Texas offense continues to struggle under quarterback Arch Manning, ranking mid-FBS in Success Rate and Quality Drives. The freshman was lit up in "The Swamp," committing turnover-worthy plays against Florida.
Despite a 2:1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions, Manning has an even number of big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays (10).
Manning has struggled against certain defensive looks, especially those of zone, Cover 1 and man.
The rushing attack has been impotent in power concepts, with a low 44% Success Rate while averaging a negative play on one out of every six attempts.
Manning is the leading rusher on the team thanks to scrambles, as halfback Jerrick Gibson averages a poor 2.3 yards after first contact.
The Texas offense posted two methodical drives against Ohio State; one possession consisted of 10 plays. Since Week 1, Texas has combined to create just two more methodical drives against the defenses of San Jose State, UTEP, Sam Houston and Florida.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's nickel defense has been forced to carry the water and ranks fifth in Quality Drives allowed.
Texas has produced a top-15 coverage and pass rush grade, making the Longhorns one of the most successful defenses in passing downs in FBS.
The biggest contrast between the offense and defense comes on third downs, where the defense is 17th compared to the offense's rank of 116th.
Oklahoma vs Texas Prediction
The clearest side to handicap is the Texas offense against the Oklahoma defense, as outside zone and counter concepts have had middling success for the Longhorns this season.
Oklahoma ranks as the top defense nationally in rush efficiency, particularly against the inside zone.
If there's an avenue that's in favor of Texas on the ground, the Sooners have seen minimal counter and misdirection this season.
The Longhorns have played into passing downs frequently this season, as Manning has mid-FBS ranks against Cover 2. Although Oklahoma doesn't play many snaps in Cover 1, the tendency has troubled the Texas quarterback all season.
Sarkisian has been unable to get scoring opportunities on the board, as 32 drives beyond the opponent's 40-yard line have produced an average of 3.7 points.
Mateer's role is unclear heading into the Red River Rivalry. The status of his surgically repaired throwing hand may lead to limited passing attempts.
The Texas defense has a mid-FBS Success Rate against zone read and counter concepts, which are both expected to be a part of the Sooners offense, led by running back Tory Blaylock.
Oklahoma hasn't been able to produce any consistent rush explosives behind an offensive line that's 89th in Line Yards. The Sooners rank 95th in tackles for loss allowed and have dropped the ball on the carpet six times this season.
Texas can win this ball game in many different ways, as Oklahoma's offense has coughed up the ball and will now have Mateer with a repaired throwing hand. The Havoc allowed factor favors Texas, as the Oklahoma offense ranks 88th in that area.
The Sooners defense has been elite in Success Rate allowed, but missed tackles are a concern. Auburn and Michigan combined to force 26 missed tackles against the Sooners.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings projects Oklahoma to be favored by a single point, giving the Sooners a small market edge. Texas would need mistakes and field position — combined with stellar red-zone play calling from Sarkisian — to beat Oklahoma.
Oklahoma may have just enough with Mateer's legs, just as Florida's offense was revived at seven yards per play in a Week 6 victory over the Longhorns.
Pick: Oklahoma ML -110 or Better
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Indiana vs Oregon Pick
The Indiana Hoosiers take on the Oregon Ducks in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -300. Indiana, meanwhile, comes in as a +7.5 underdog and is +240 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55 points.
Here’s my Indiana vs. Oregon prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 11.
Indiana Hoosiers
Head coach Curt Cignetti will take his top-ranked Havoc defense to Eugene for a chance to remain undefeated on the season.
The primary driver in creating defensive chaos comes from a rank of third in tackles for loss, as linebacker Isaiah Jones and defensive lineman Kellan Wyatt are both individually ranked top-25 nationally in the category.
The remainder of the defense has been best in FBS, with top-10 rankings in Line Yards, tackling, Quality Drives allowed and Finishing Drives allowed.
The area of concern comes via rush explosives allowed, with Indiana ranking in the bottom 10 of FBS. Both Old Dominion and Kennesaw State started the season posting five combined rushing attempts that went over 20 yards.
Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has improved an Indiana offense that made the College Football Playoff a year ago. The Cal transfer has 16 passing touchdowns with a turnover-worthy play rate of just 1.3% on 124 passing attempts.
Mendoza has dominated quarters coverage with a 77% Success Rate and an explosive on one out of every four attempts.
The Hoosiers are a run-first team with a 62% rush rate. They're dominant with inside zone calls for the backfield duo of Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black.
Oregon Ducks
Head coach Dan Lanning has two weeks to not only prepare for Indiana, but also settle a roster coming off one of the biggest road victories of the season. Oregon knocked off Penn State with a 75% post-game win expectancy just two weeks ago.
The Ducks were stuffed on only 7-of-39 carries, as seven of their 11 drives featured at least two first downs.
Quarterback Dante Moore brought his passing touchdowns up to 14 on the season; he's recorded just two turnover-worthy plays on the season.
The combination of running backs Jayden Limar and Dierre Hill Jr. has produced 15 explosives, with the latter averaging 7.2 yards after first contact.
The defense hasn't been quite as successful as the offense, struggling against outside zone rush concepts while failing to create a pass rush. The Ducks sit outside the top 50 in Havoc and are 114th in Defensive Stuff Rate.
The 3-3-5 personnel is powered by a top-25 coverage and tackling grade, limiting pass explosives by opponents at a top-10 rate.
Linebacker Jerry Mixon has been one of the best at his position in pass coverage, posting two interceptions and three pass breakups.
Indiana vs Oregon Prediction
The Indiana offense has been committed to one particular rush concept: inside zone. The concept has been run 128 times compared to 17 attempts of outside zone and 50 attempts using man blocking techniques.
This is an advantage for the Oregon defense, which has struggled severely against outside zone but improved to a national average level of 51% efficiency against inside zone.
The Hoosiers would have better success lining up and handing off in man blocking, as that concept has trimmed the Ducks to a 41% Success Rate.
The Hoosiers have a strength of schedule rank of 70th, drawing attention to their marks of 130th in Rush EPA allowed and 126th in standard downs EPA allowed.
There were busted runs against the Hoosiers to open the season, but they allowed just one rush to go for 20 yards in two games against Iowa and Illinois.
The ultimate test for the Hoosiers will be Oregon's receiving corps of Dakorien Moore and Malik Benson, who are both averaging more than 2.3 yards per route run.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Oregon to be favored by nine, giving minimal value on the Ducks until the market shifts to a flat -7.
However, there will be an investment on the full-game over and Oregon's team total over.
Indiana should have success in man concepts with Black against the Ducks' defense, but Oregon's inside zone will test the Hoosiers' checkered resume against run explosives.
Pick: Over 55 · Oregon Team Total Over 31.5 or Better
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Michigan vs USC Pick
The Michigan Wolverines take on the USC Trojans in Los Angeles, CA, on Saturday, Oct. 11. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
USC is favored by -2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 57.5 points.
Here’s my Michigan vs. USC prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 11.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan will take to the road in Big Ten play, looking to maintain an undefeated conference record. The Wolverines traveled to the West Coast just once in 2024, suffering a 10-point defeat to Washington.
The 2025 version of Michigan packs a better punch offensively, executing at a high level with zone read concepts between quarterback Bryce Underwood and running back Justice Haynes.
The former Alabama halfback is averaging 4.3 yards after first contact while forcing 20 missed tackles on 85 carries.
The ground attack has been the bread and butter for the Wolverines, as they're generating a top-35 rank in Line Yards and Success Rate.
Defensive coordinator Wink Martindale has fielded a top-25 defense in nearly every statistical category. The Havoc-minded nickel defense can switch between man, quarters and Cover 3, while ranking second nationally in limiting rush explosives.
If there's a weakness, Michigan has allowed too many opponent drives to end with points. Twelve of 15 opponent red-zone attempts have ended in a score, allowing an average of 4.1 points in 20 opponents' possessions to cross the Michigan 40-yard line.
USC Trojans
Head coach Lincoln Riley continues to struggle in Big Ten conference road play away from the West Coast. Since the 2024 realignment, the Trojans are now 0-4 in conference games at least two time zones to the east.
USC will enjoy home cooking in the LA Coliseum during Week 7, led by one of the most potent offensive attacks in the nation. The balanced attack ranks top five of all FBS teams in rush efficiency, stuff rate, passing success rate and quality drives.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava has blazed up the Heisman charts, eclipsing 1,500 passing yards, 11 touchdowns and a six big-time throw performance against Illinois.
Defensive coordinator D'Anton Lynn has observed a regression in 2-4-5 personnel, sitting outside the top 100 in rush efficiency and explosives allowed.
Linebacker Desman Stephens II and defensive interior Devan Thompkins have two of the lowest run defense grades, per PFF, as USC ranks 122nd in defensive line yards.
The schedule hasn't included elite rushing attacks from Michigan State, Purdue, Georgia Southern or Missouri State. Forty tackles for loss power a high Havoc grade, as linebacker Eric Gentry ranks 18th nationally with seven this season.
Michigan vs USC Prediction
The Michigan offense should have plenty of success generating first downs and explosives from the rushing attack. The Wolverines have been excellent in an even distribution of inside and outside zone read concepts led by Underwood and Haynes.
USC has been one of the worst defenses in defending inside zone, bringing a low 39% Success Rate while allowing an explosive one of every five carries.
The USC offense will combat with plenty of success through the air, as Maiava has dominated quarters and Cover 3 secondaries.
The UNLV transfer quarterback has posted a 72% Success Rate against quarters, dominating opposing nickel defenses with hitch routes.
Wide receiver Makai Lemon has dominated in catches between zero and nine yards, catching 17-of-19 targets with an explosive 4.5 yards per route run.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for USC to be favored by 1.5, giving little value to a market that has bounced the Trojans from 2.5 to 3-point favorites.
The better investment could be on a total, where Michigan rush explosives and USC pass-catchers have the chance to get quick scores on the board.
Considering USC's rank (second in the nation) in Offensive Finishing Drives against a Michigan pass defense that's outside the top 50 in pass EPA allowed, these teams should light up the scoreboard often.
Pick: Over 58 or Better
