CFB Sharp Report: Alabama-Georgia, Texas-Oklahoma Attracting Wiseguy Action

CFB Sharp Report: Alabama-Georgia, Texas-Oklahoma Attracting Wiseguy Action article feature image

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Camarda and Jake Fromm

  • Before placing your conference championship weekend bets, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success.
  • Their favorite plays on Saturday include bets on Georgia-Alabama (4 p.m. ET, CBS) and Texas-Oklahoma (12 p.m. ET, ABC).

Conference championship weekend may mean fewer games on which to bet, but it surely doesn’t mean less action.

Starting this weekend and lasting through bowl season, recreational bettors will be coming out of the woodwork, resulting in higher ticket counts and creating value for sharps.

In case you aren’t familiar, “sharps” are professional bettors with long track records of success. And when I say long, I’m talking years, decades even. So when a sharp places a bet, books take notice, and often adjust lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine the bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the number of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the conference championship games drawing the most action from wiseguys this weekend.

Texas vs. Oklahoma

12 p.m. ET | ABC

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 78 to 77.5)

This total has technically dropped just one-half point from its opener, but that doesn’t quite tell the complete story.

Some books had shifted this number to as high as 80 during the week, which makes the move to 77.5 far more significant, especially considering the public’s love for the over.

Seventy-eight percent of bettors, in fact, have taken the over despite the high total (it’s the seventh highest for a conference championship in our Bet Labs database).

Those bettors have also accounted for three-quarters of the money being wagered, but despite the liability that action has posed, oddsmakers still found reason to drop this total.

Wiseguys have hit the under on several occasions, evidenced by the four Sports Insights Bet Signals that have been triggered, indicating market-wide line movement caused by sharp action.

UAB @ Middle Tennessee State

1:30 p.m. ET | CBSSN

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