CFB Sharp Report: Alabama-Georgia, Texas-Oklahoma Attracting Wiseguy Action

Conference championship weekend may mean fewer games on which to bet, but it surely doesn't mean less action.

Starting this weekend and lasting through bowl season, recreational bettors will be coming out of the woodwork, resulting in higher ticket counts and creating value for sharps.

In case you aren't familiar, "sharps" are professional bettors with long track records of success. And when I say long, I'm talking years, decades even. So when a sharp places a bet, books take notice, and often adjust lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine the bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the number of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let's take a look at the conference championship games drawing the most action from wiseguys this weekend.

Texas vs. Oklahoma

12 p.m. ET | ABC

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 78 to 77.5)

This total has technically dropped just one-half point from its opener, but that doesn't quite tell the complete story.

Some books had shifted this number to as high as 80 during the week, which makes the move to 77.5 far more significant, especially considering the public's love for the over.

Seventy-eight percent of bettors, in fact, have taken the over despite the high total (it's the seventh highest for a conference championship in our Bet Labs database).

Those bettors have also accounted for three-quarters of the money being wagered, but despite the liability that action has posed, oddsmakers still found reason to drop this total.

Wiseguys have hit the under on several occasions, evidenced by the four Sports Insights Bet Signals that have been triggered, indicating market-wide line movement caused by sharp action.

UAB @ Middle Tennessee State

1:30 p.m. ET | CBSSN

Sharp angle: UAB (moved from +3 to +1.5)

In an exact rematch of last week's game that MTSU won handily, 27-3, UAB opened as a 3-point underdog. That's quite a swing from the -3 line the Blazers were given a week ago, and sharp bettors seem to think the reaction was a bit much.

While 56% of bets have come on Middle Tennessee, 75% of dollars wagered have landed on UAB, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are taking the points.

On top of that, UAB has been on the receiving end of three SI Bet Signals, which, partnered with the massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy, has caused this line to fall.

It's worth noting that this line did reach a pick'em for a short time, and even hit UAB -1 at at least one book, but was bet back to its current number.

Memphis @ Central Florida

3:30 p.m. ET | ABC

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 70.5 to 64.5)

Of any line on Saturday's slate, the Memphis-UCF total has been the biggest mover. And while 58% of bets have come on the under, such a small majority isn't enough to cause a total to fall six points. Instead it's been sharps behind the move.

Those 58% of bets have accounted for 66% of dollars wagered, meaning bigger bets are on the under, but the more telling indication has come from the Bet Signals.

Three signals have been triggered on the under, the most recent of which came at 65.5, causing oddsmakers to adjust this total several times.

The market has yet to show any signs of sharp action on the over, but if this number continues to drop, it wouldn't come as a surprise to see some buy back.

Georgia vs. Alabama

4 p.m. ET | CBS

Sharp angle: Georgia (moved from +13 to +11)

A few books opened this spread around Alabama -10.5, but any that did were immediately bet up to -13. For most of the week, the line remained in that range, with a few books listing -13.5.

On Friday afternoon, however, sharps made their move on Georgia. In a matter of only about 10 minutes, the Bulldogs' line fell back to +11.

That move goes against the public's predictable backing of Alabama. But while Bama has attracted 59% of bets, those have made up for just 52% of dollars wagered.

Fresno State @ Boise State

7:45 p.m. ET | ESPN

Sharp angles: Fresno State (moved from +3 to pick'em), Over (moved from 49 to 52.5)

The story of this spread is strangely similar to that of the UAB-MTSU matchup above.

In the first meeting between these teams — which was also at Boise State — Fresno closed as a 2.5-point favorite and lost by a touchdown. Now, three weeks later, the Bulldogs opened at +3.

The public has once again been drawn to the favorite coming off the head-to-head win, as Boise has picked up 69% of the bets in this game, but sharp action has caused this line to fall to a pick'em.

As evidenced by the 41% of dollars they've received, bigger bettors are backing the Bulldogs. Fresno has also triggered three Bet Signals to help bring this line down.

One play in this game wasn't enough for sharps, though. Five Bet Signals have also hit the over, which has bumped this total up by more than a field goal despite attracting only 34% of bets.

Those bets have accounted for 56% of dollars, however, which has certainly played a role in oddsmakers' decision to raise this total.