Georgia-LSU Betting Guide: Is it Finally Time to Buy the Tigers?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Elijah Holyfield and Devin White
Georgia-LSU Betting Odds, Pick
- Line: Georgia -7.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.
We at The Action Network haven’t been big fans of LSU this fall. The Tigers were being overrated relative to their underlying metrics, and we’ve bet against them quite a bit.
But there’s a point when even the team you’re down on the most becomes valuable. Value is relative, and this might finally be the week LSU offers some value — as a touchdown home underdog to Georgia.
This is the Bulldogs’ first true test in a stretch filled with them — they play LSU, Florida, Kentucky and Auburn in their next four games.
Market Moves for LSU-Georgia
Bettors are split down the middle in this one, with each side generating exactly 50% of bets. Georgia has a slight edge in dollars wagered (54%) and has moved from -7 to -8, then back to 7.5, since opening.
As for the total, it’s fallen a half-point from its opening number behind 54% of bets and 86% of dollars on the under.
Trends to Know
By Evan Abrams
Georgia is averaging 42.8 points per game this season, which is 15th in FBS.
Since 2011, 13 different teams have traveled to “Death Valley” in October or later averaging at least 35 points on the season, and those teams are 3-10 SU and ATS, averaging just 14.6 points at Tiger Stadium and failing to cover the spread by an average of 10 points.
By John Ewing
No. 13 LSU lost to Florida 27-19 in Week 6. According to Bet Labs, ranked teams after a loss have gone 232-279-15 (45%) ATS in their next game since 2005.
If the team is an underdog, like LSU is on Saturday, the against-the-spread record drops to 44-61-3 (42%).
Key Metrics for Georgia-LSU
Georgia quarterback Jake Fromm gets pegged as a game manager because of his team’s excellent stable of running backs. But his 10.5 yards per pass attempt ranks fourth nationally.
LSU’s is tied for 25th in passing defense at 6.2 yards per attempt allowed. The only team to really have success moving the ball through the air against the Tigers was Louisiana Tech, and it wasn’t all that efficient in the process.
How Does LSU Match Up?
After LSU’s loss to Florida and Georgia’s rout of Vanderbilt, I assumed this would be a buy low/sell high situation and I’d be backing LSU.
But after doing a deep dive into the analytics, I was surprised to learn I wouldn’t be going with my gut.
LSU has played a tougher schedule, sure, but its +5 turnover margin, 17% win expectancy at Auburn and Joe Burrow’s pass-completion rate ranking 115th all support the narrative that the Tigers are still overachieving.
One thing we do know about both teams is they excel at stopping explosiveness, with LSU 12th and Georgia first in the nation. The clear advantage is with Georgia’s offensive efficiency and explosiveness, which ranks fifth and 18th, respectively.
One of the big questions I have with Georgia is its defensive line, primarily with how Missouri pushed it around between the tackles. Missouri ranks a superb 17th in opportunity rate and 10th in stuff rate on the offensive line, so there is certainly a reason why Georgia’s defense had issues in Columbia.
LSU does not have similar offensive line metrics, ranking 81st in opportunity rate and 68th in stuff rate. In short, Ed Orgeron’s Tigers will not have the same success as Missouri did running the ball between the tackles on Georgia.
Other advanced stats will keep you away from betting LSU. The Tigers offensive line is 80th in adjusted sack rate as the offense is 111th in explosiveness on passing downs. Georgia still has issues getting to the quarterback, but having a linebacker havoc ranking of 17th should give Burrow plenty of trouble.
Meanwhile, LSU’s defensive line is just 110th in havoc which spells trouble against Georgia, which ranks an amazing third in the country in Havoc allowed.
Sign me up for chalk on the Bulldogs.
Too Many Unknowns with Georgia
By Ken Barkley
I can’t believe I’m saying this, considering how pessimistic I was about LSU before the season, but…I’m not sure LSU is getting enough credit here, and I think Georgia may be getting too much.
The raw statistics that are creating this 8-point projection are being affected by the squads each team has played to a large extent. LSU has played Miami, Auburn and Florida. I’m not sure we even have a good idea of what Georgia is at this point, and it’s Week 7. The games against Austin Peay, Middle Tennessee State and even Tennessee and Vanderbilt were almost preseason exhibitions because the talent mismatches were so severe.
Sept. 22 against Missouri was a very misleading final score because the teams were nearly even in total yards and time of possession. Missouri moved the ball very well against Georgia, ran for 4.6 yards per carry, had more first downs, but couldn’t stop making catastrophic mistakes.
Those turnovers really ended up creating the scoreline of 43-29 much more than anything Georgia did. If those two teams are much closer rating-wise than the market thinks, then this number against LSU is WAY too high.
The spread is really all about Georgia’s success last season, and the thrashing that Georgia gave South Carolina in Columbia in Week 2. What we’ve seen after the fact from the Gamecocks hasn’t been the most inspiring stuff. That win might be overrated a little, too. And LSU is significantly better in all areas of the game than South Carolina is.
This isn’t really supposed to be as much Georgia bashing as it sounds. It’s possible we will get to the end of the season and the Bulldogs will clearly be among the nation’s elite. They’ve recruited like it, no question.
But based on the opponents so far, I would have Georgia as much more of an unknown, and an unknown giving 7.5 points in an extremely tough road environment is very unappealing. I would lean LSU here at the number, but considering the total mystery that is Georgia, any type of reasonably sized bet is out of the question for me.