The USC Trojans take on the TCU Horned Frogs in the 2025 Alamo Bowl in San Antonio on Tuesday, Dec. 30. Kickoff is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN.
USC is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -245. TCU, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +195 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55.5 total points.
Here’s my USC vs. TCU prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, December 30.
USC vs TCU Prediction
- USC vs. TCU Pick: 1H Under 28
My TCU vs. USC best bet is on both teams to go under the first-half total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs TCU Odds
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -245 |
| TCU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +195 |
- USC vs TCU Spread: USC -6.5, TCU +6.5
- USC vs TCU Over/Under: 55.5 Points
- USC vs TCU Moneyline: USC -245, TCU +195
USC vs TCU Alamo Bowl Preview
USC Trojans Betting Preview: Opt-Outs, Injuries & Transfers
USC isn’t in a better situation; it might actually be worse off.
The Trojans have several injuries on the offensive line, as right guard Alani Noa missed the last game, left tackle Elijah Paige hasn’t played since Week 11, center Killian O’Connor is out and running back Waymond Jordan hasn’t played since October.
This is a tough combination for a team that relies on big passing plays and staying in good down-and-distance situations. On top of the injuries, USC is also dealing with opt-outs and transfer news.
The Trojans will be without tight end Lake McRee, wide receiver Ja’Kobi Lane and Biltnikoff Award-winning receiver Makai Lemon. On defense, they're without edge rusher Anthony Lucas, linebacker Eric Gentry, and safeties Kamari Ramsey and Bishop Fitzgerald.
These aren't just role players; they're key components from both sides of the ball.
The team also lost cornerback Braylon Conley, defensive tackle Devan Thompkins and tight end Walker Lyons to the transfer portal. Even CB DJ Harvey’s status is uncertain.
This is more than just filling in for a few players. It's a complete crapshoot.
USC’s offensive stats look great on paper, but those numbers are from a lineup that isn’t playing in this game. With so many skill players and starters out from the offensive line, there's no way to truly handicap its offensive production.
TCU’s offense has struggled with efficiency, even when everyone was healthy. It ranked 93rd in early downs EPA and 106th in average third-down distance.
If those were the Frogs' numbers with Briles calling plays and their top receivers available, it’s hard to see things improving with a backup quarterback, no top receiver, no top running back and a new play-caller.
TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview: Plenty of Changes
The Alamo Bowl is a prime example of a game that could be completely chaotic. Both teams have so many injuries, opt-outs and transfers that it creates a ton of uncertainty.
When bowl season brings together two short-handed offenses and coaching changes, the best value is often on the first-half under, which is the angle I want to take here.
Let’s start with TCU, since its offense is basically starting over.
Starting quarterback Josh Hoover entered the transfer portal, so the former Vanderbilt QB Ken Seals — who's mediocre at best and not a game-changer — will take over.
Losing your quarterback before a bowl game is tough, but the problems don’t stop there. The Horned Frogs' top receiver, Jordan Dwyer (54 catches, 730 yards), is also out with a foot injury.
Running back Kevorian Barnes hasn’t played since Week 11, and tight end DJ Rogers might not play either. On defense, safety Bud Clark missed the last two games, and fellow safety Kylin Jackson didn’t play in the finale, so the defensive depth is also thin.
But the biggest issue for TCU might not be the players; it’s also the coaching staff.
Offensive coordinator Kendal Briles has left for South Carolina, so tight ends coach Mitch Kirsch will be calling plays from the booth.
Head coach Sonny Dykes said it will be a “collaborative effort.”
When you hear that during bowl week, it usually means conservative game plans, shorter playbooks, slower tempo and basic play-calling early on.
USC vs TCU Pick, Betting Analysis
Historically, bowl games with significant transfer movement, coaching changes and roster uncertainty tend to feature low-scoring first halves.
Coaches usually play it safe, backups need time to get comfortable and both teams want to avoid early mistakes that could shift momentum.
All things considered, this first half is likely to be messy and low-scoring.
USC is missing too many key offensive players to start smoothly, and TCU is trying to make things work with new players, as well as a temporary play-caller.
Both teams have big issues with third-down efficiency, so I don't see a world where either team gets off to a quick start offensively.
Pick: 1H Under 28
