Iowa State-Texas Betting Guide: Cyclones a New Team Under Purdy


USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lil’Jordan Humphrey and Brock Purdy

Nov 17, 2018, 08:42 AM EST

Iowa State at Texas Betting Odds, Pick

  • Odds: Texas -2.5
  • Over/Under: 47
  • Time: 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: Longhorn Network

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets

Did anyone think Iowa State would have a chance to play for a Big 12 title after its 1-3 start to the season?

The Cyclones have been excellent over the last month, while Texas has played a ton of close games — some ended well, others didn’t.

Can Iowa State’s offense keep rolling, or is Texas destined for more success in close games? Let’s dive in.

Market Movement for Texas-Iowa State

By Danny Donahue

The movement on this point spread has been fairly standard. Iowa State has generated 62% of dollars on 63% of bets, which has appropriately caused this line to fall from ISU +3 to +2.5.

The over/under, however, has drawn some notable action. It’s fallen from 51 to 47 despite 63% of bettors taking the over, as those bettors have accounted for only 39% of the money wagered on the total (see live betting data here).

Two Versions of Iowa State

By Steve Petrella

Is it even fair to judge Iowa State’s offense on what it did before Brock Purdy took over at quarterback?

The true freshman has been impressive in five games since getting the job — he’s completing 68% of his passes at 10.8 yards per attempt. If he qualified, he’d rank No. 3 in yards per attempt and No. 11 in completion percentage. He’s also 4-1 against the spread.

Those strong numbers have led to an improvement across the board for Iowa State on offense, naturally. Per SB Nation, the Cyclones have been about six points better per game with Purdy under center. And entering last week, they had the 81st-ranked offense without Purdy and are 33rd with him.

Iowa State is averaging nearly 1.7 yards per play more with Purdy calling the shots than in their first four games (6.51 to 4.86). That’s the difference between Ohio State’s offense and UTEP’s offense.

A Defensive Slugfest?

By Ken Barkley

This spread is insinuating that there is essentially no margin between the teams. And you know what? I think that’s right! Not only are the units ranked extremely evenly when matched up (Texas 24th in offense in S&P+ vs. Iowa State 26th in defense, etc.) but there isn’t a really significant coaching or special teams advantage either.

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