Iowa State-Texas Betting Guide: Cyclones a New Team Under Purdy

Iowa State at Texas Betting Odds, Pick

• Odds: Texas -2.5
• Over/Under: 47
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV: Longhorn Network

Did anyone think Iowa State would have a chance to play for a Big 12 title after its 1-3 start to the season?

The Cyclones have been excellent over the last month, while Texas has played a ton of close games — some ended well, others didn't.

Can Iowa State's offense keep rolling, or is Texas destined for more success in close games? Let's dive in.

Market Movement for Texas-Iowa State

By Danny Donahue

The movement on this point spread has been fairly standard. Iowa State has generated 62% of dollars on 63% of bets, which has appropriately caused this line to fall from ISU +3 to +2.5.

The over/under, however, has drawn some notable action. It’s fallen from 51 to 47 despite 63% of bettors taking the over, as those bettors have accounted for only 39% of the money wagered on the total (see live betting data here).

Two Versions of Iowa State

By Steve Petrella

Is it even fair to judge Iowa State's offense on what it did before Brock Purdy took over at quarterback?

The true freshman has been impressive in five games since getting the job — he's completing 68% of his passes at 10.8 yards per attempt. If he qualified, he'd rank No. 3 in yards per attempt and No. 11 in completion percentage. He's also 4-1 against the spread.

Those strong numbers have led to an improvement across the board for Iowa State on offense, naturally. Per SB Nation, the Cyclones have been about six points better per game with Purdy under center. And entering last week, they had the 81st-ranked offense without Purdy and are 33rd with him.

Iowa State is averaging nearly 1.7 yards per play more with Purdy calling the shots than in their first four games (6.51 to 4.86). That's the difference between Ohio State's offense and UTEP's offense.

A Defensive Slugfest?

By Ken Barkley

This spread is insinuating that there is essentially no margin between the teams. And you know what? I think that’s right! Not only are the units ranked extremely evenly when matched up (Texas 24th in offense in S&P+ vs. Iowa State 26th in defense, etc.) but there isn’t a really significant coaching or special teams advantage either.

Texas has worked hard to develop a home-field advantage that’s more demonstrative, so maybe you can give them more than the customary three points in this spot, but really everything about this is just right for me.

Both have faced units on both sides that are better (especially on offense) and haven’t outperformed the market consistently, especially recently. Even if you just use numbers since Brock Purdy took over (Cyclones have won all five since making the change) I’m not sure the gap here is significant.

So…yeah…Texas -3.

What is somewhat interesting, though, is the total. This is a series that’s gone way under recently, and in last year’s meeting (with the same coaches as this year), Texas won in Ames 17-7. In that game, Todd Orlando’s defense held Iowa State (which had star running back David Montgomery) to 15 carries for 10 yards.

These aren’t teams that play like your “typical” Big 12 shootout programs; there’s more balance and more physicality, especially on defense.

Now consider that Montgomery will miss the first half the game because of the wild fight between the Cyclones and Baylor last week, and that Texas’ second best receiver Collin Johnson isn’t going to play either.

I think this takes a game that was probably going to go under anyway and this news makes that probability even greater. Sam Ehlinger and Brock Purdy may be playing better recently, and their team’s offenses have been on the uptick, but in this matchup, the defenses are the units I trust way more to show up given the programs and their history.

The under has lost value as it dropped to 47 from 51 over the last few days, but this game should be a slugfest.

Last Year's Game Was Gross

By Steve Petrella

Like Ken mentioned, these two teams played a defensive struggle last season. It was 17-7, and the box score backed that up.

Both teams averaged 4.0 yards per play and combined for just 568 yards. There were 14 punts! Each team only got in the red zone once.

If points will be at a premium again, I think getting +3 if you want Iowa State is imperative.

Trends to Know

By John Ewing

In top 25 matchups featuring conference opponents, the favorite is 277-221-12 (56%) against the spread since 2005. That would seem to bode well for Texas.

But under Tom Herman, the Longhorns are 15-20 ATS as a favorite, including 7-13 ATS as a home favorite.

Then there is Matt “Cover” Campbell. As the head coach at Iowa State and Toledo, he has compiled a 26-12 (68%) ATS record as a underdog, including 16-6 ATS when getting points with the Cyclones.

By Evan Abrams

Iowa State enters this game against Texas allowing 20.4 PPG this season, which is 22nd in FBS and 15th in the Power 5.

In Tom Herman’s career as a head coach with both Houston and Texas, his teams have faced opponents allowing less than 21 PPG thirteen times. He is 9-4 SU and 9-3-1 ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.9 PPG.

Herman is the fourth-most profitable coach in FBS in this spot (+5.6 units), averaging 33.6 PPG in those thirteen games, too.