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Cincinnati-UCF Betting Guide: Are Knights Undervalued?

Nov 17, 2018 8:41 AM EST

Cincinnati at UCF Betting Odds, Pick

  • Odds: UCF -7
  • Over/Under: 61
  • Time: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets


In a week without much Power 5 drama expected, let’s hope UCF and Cincinnati keep things lively.

The Group of 5’s top spot is up for grabs with the Knights riding a 22-game winning streak into this contest. Cincinnati has exceeded expectations at 9-1, but has no top-50 wins.

Teams like UCF have typically been successful in this spot. The favorite in games between ranked teams covers 55% of the time, per our Bet Labs data. And when the underdog is getting the majority of bets, like Cincy is, the favorite hits at a 61% clip.

Market Moves for UCF-Cincinnati

By Danny Donahue

After opening as an 8-point favorite, Central Florida has drawn only 39% of bettors, which would be its smallest backing of the season if it holds. The Knights have also generated only 38% of dollars wagered on the game, which has contributed to the line move from -8 to -7 (see live data here).

As for the total, the over has been one of the most popular bets of the week. It’s attracted 86% of bets and 89% of dollars, moving this number from 58.5 to 61.

Trends to Know for UCF-Cincinnati

By Evan Abrams

— During UCF’s 22-game winning streak, it is 14-7-1 against the spread (66.7%) and has only played five games prior to Cincinnati with a spread under double-digits. The Knights are 4-1 ATS in those games, covering by 13.1 points per game.

— Cincinnati’s margin of victory is 20.1 entering this game, and yet, the Bearcats are touchdown underdogs. Since 2005 (regular season only), 14 teams have entered a game in November or later with similar qualifications. Those teams are a dead-even 7-7 ATS, but only three have been able to pull off the upset.

  • 2013 Oklahoma State (+7.5) defeated Bryce Petty and Baylor
  • 2012 Texas A&M (+13.5) and Johnny Manziel defeated Alabama
  • 2010 Nevada (+14) and Colin Kaepernick defeated Boise State (which included this missed FG by Kyle Brotzman that still haunts Boise fans to this day).

Barkley: What I’m Betting in UCF-Cincinnati

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charles McClelland and McKenzie Milton

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
59
-4
58.5
-3.5
64.5
-11
66.5
-8
52
-3
52
-4
48
PK
47.5
+1
50.5
-7.5
50.5
-7
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55.5
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
48.5
-12
-2.5
73
-5.5
74
67.5
-5
67
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
52.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55
-3
61
-3.5
60.5
-3.5
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
54.5
-3.5
-3
47
-4
47
-6.5
55
-3.5
55.5
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68.5
54.5
-6.5
54.5
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60.5
56
-11
55
-12
79
-13.5
81.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46.5
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-4.5
-5
44.5
-7
44.5
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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