Cincinnati-UCF Betting Guide: Are Knights Undervalued?


USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Charles McClelland and McKenzie Milton

Nov 17, 2018, 08:41 AM EST

Cincinnati at UCF Betting Odds, Pick

  • Odds: UCF -7
  • Over/Under: 61
  • Time: Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC

>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets

In a week without much Power 5 drama expected, let’s hope UCF and Cincinnati keep things lively.

The Group of 5’s top spot is up for grabs with the Knights riding a 22-game winning streak into this contest. Cincinnati has exceeded expectations at 9-1, but has no top-50 wins.

Teams like UCF have typically been successful in this spot. The favorite in games between ranked teams covers 55% of the time, per our Bet Labs data. And when the underdog is getting the majority of bets, like Cincy is, the favorite hits at a 61% clip.

Market Moves for UCF-Cincinnati

By Danny Donahue

After opening as an 8-point favorite, Central Florida has drawn only 39% of bettors, which would be its smallest backing of the season if it holds. The Knights have also generated only 38% of dollars wagered on the game, which has contributed to the line move from -8 to -7 (see live data here).

As for the total, the over has been one of the most popular bets of the week. It’s attracted 86% of bets and 89% of dollars, moving this number from 58.5 to 61.

Trends to Know for UCF-Cincinnati

By Evan Abrams

— During UCF’s 22-game winning streak, it is 14-7-1 against the spread (66.7%) and has only played five games prior to Cincinnati with a spread under double-digits. The Knights are 4-1 ATS in those games, covering by 13.1 points per game.

— Cincinnati’s margin of victory is 20.1 entering this game, and yet, the Bearcats are touchdown underdogs. Since 2005 (regular season only), 14 teams have entered a game in November or later with similar qualifications. Those teams are a dead-even 7-7 ATS, but only three have been able to pull off the upset.

  • 2013 Oklahoma State (+7.5) defeated Bryce Petty and Baylor
  • 2012 Texas A&M (+13.5) and Johnny Manziel defeated Alabama
  • 2010 Nevada (+14) and Colin Kaepernick defeated Boise State (which included this missed FG by Kyle Brotzman that still haunts Boise fans to this day).

Barkley: What I’m Betting in UCF-Cincinnati

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