Louisiana-Monroe vs. Texas State Odds, Pick: Will Bobcats Take Advantage of Good Spot?
Reese Strickland, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Caleb Evans, Josh Pederson
Louisiana-Monroe at Texas State Betting Odds
- Spread: Louisiana-Monroe -3
- Over/Under: 61.5
- Time: 9:15 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPNU
Odds as of Thursday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Louisiana-Monroe vs. Texas State Line Movement
The ride for this spread has been a pretty boring one since opening. Bettors are split perfectly down the middle, with both teams holding 50% of the tickets currently. Oddsmakers have toyed with both sides of the key number of ULM -3, and for the most part have been bet back to that number, which it sits at as of now.
As for the total, while the majority of bettors are somewhat unusually betting the under (63%), the over has generated the majority of actual money (61%). That’s helped bring the number back up to 61.5 after an initial drop from 62 to 60. — Danny Donahue
Collin Wilson: A Sweet Spot for Texas State But…
Prior to the season, Texas State did everything you could have hoped for if you invested on them in them with a future. The Bobcats returned a lot of production, hired a respected offensive coordinator and had quality quarterbacks transfer to the program.
Texas State has enjoyed a decent start to the season, though Arkansas State looks like the powerhouse in the West Division, while Louisiana-Lafayette has been competent enough to beat teams in better conferences.
The Bobcats have actually already shown some signs of progress. A victory over Georgia State was a big deal because the ‘Cats had just two conference wins since 2015.
ULM is also 1-0 in conference standings, posting a non-cover win against South Alabama.
Neither team has strong underlying numbers, but that’s because each program took on a difficult non-conference schedule. Both Texas State and ULM rank outside the top-100 in many of the advanced metrics that rank offensive and defensive line play.
The WarHawks have much better at ball protection, ranking 12th in the nation.
I think this game will come down to whether or not the Texas State defense can stop a ULM rush offense that ranks 17th yards per carry. ULM is 19th in rushing plays that exceed 20 yards, a tough task for a Texas State defense that ranks 90th in chunk yard prevention.
There are a couple of ways to play this number. The Action Network power ratings project Texas State -1, giving value to the current +3. This is a tricky spot for the Warhawks, just a few days removed from an 89-play boat race against Memphis. The Bobcats are coming off a bye week, so they should be able to hang with ULM in the beginning, but I ultimately think they will fall behind this rush attack.
Be advised that I hold plenty of Texas State futures, but my gameplan for this matchup is to try and get a livebet in on the Warhawks at PK or better.
Stuckey: A Live Bettor’s Dream
As Collin mentioned, this is a solid situational spot for Texas State. The Warhawks will need to quickly recover for a trip to San Marcos to take on Texas State’s Air Raid.
This is the Sun Belt, so it’s no surprise that neither defense is very good, so the live opportunities should be appealing for both sides. I actually think the Warhawks could wear down as the game goes on, so I’ll be looking to get on Texas State live, ideally at +7 or better, if the Bobcats go down early.
Not only is the ULM pass defense just dreadful, it also ranks dead last in the country in rushing yards allowed on average on first down.
It’s also worth noting that both teams struggle on special teams, specifically when it comes to field goal kicking and punting. Texas State extra points are even a roller coaster as the Bobs recently ended a 10-game stretch without a made field goal.