Wilson: Week 7 Havoc Ratings & How I’m Betting Navy-Tulsa


Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Diego Fagot

Oct 11, 2019, 11:16 PM EDT
  • Havoc helps Collin Wilson single out betting opportunities since it can create volatility and uncertainty.
  • What is Havoc? It's the rate at which a defense creates disruptive plays -- tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended.
  • He also makes a pick in Saturday's matchup between Navy and Tulsa based on the discrepancies in this statistic.

Last week in this space, I discussed the potential for an all out fracas in the SEC showdown between Auburn and Florida.

Our havoc ratings noted the Tigers offensive line may have plenty of issues keeping Bo Nix upright, and the game did not disappoint, as the Gators amassed 3 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hurries, 3 passes defensed and a couple of sacks. Nix threw for only 145 yards on 11 completions with three interceptions.

The Gators rank third in defensive havoc after six games, setting up a Brobdingnagian battle against another top 25 havoc team in LSU this Saturday.

Last week we began including Havoc allowed here, showing which offenses can keep themselves out of trouble. Shockingly, Oregon State and Wyoming top the list with an interception a piece and just four fumbles between them.

Havoc rate is total plays divided by the total number of tackles for loss, forced fumbles or passes defended divided. It can take a defense from good to great.

Havoc allowed is interceptions, tackles for loss and fumbles offensively. Investing money in offenses that protect the ball is vital to a bettor.

All odds below as of Morning morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

My handicapping always starts with the Action Network power ratings, but the Havoc statistic for both offense and defense will be used to gauge which teams can cause volatility and lead to betting value.

College Football Week 7 Havoc Rankings

PD is passes defensed, FF is Forces Fumbles, and TFL representing Tackles for Loss. Havoc Rate is calculated per the Five Factors definition.

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