Wilson: Week 7 Havoc Ratings & How I’m Betting Navy-Tulsa

Credit:

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Diego Fagot

Oct 11, 2019, 11:16 PM EDT
  • Havoc helps Collin Wilson single out betting opportunities since it can create volatility and uncertainty.
  • What is Havoc? It's the rate at which a defense creates disruptive plays -- tackles for loss, forced fumbles and passes defended.
  • He also makes a pick in Saturday's matchup between Navy and Tulsa based on the discrepancies in this statistic.

Last week in this space, I discussed the potential for an all out fracas in the SEC showdown between Auburn and Florida.

Our havoc ratings noted the Tigers offensive line may have plenty of issues keeping Bo Nix upright, and the game did not disappoint, as the Gators amassed 3 tackles for loss, 3 quarterback hurries, 3 passes defensed and a couple of sacks. Nix threw for only 145 yards on 11 completions with three interceptions.

The Gators rank third in defensive havoc after six games, setting up a Brobdingnagian battle against another top 25 havoc team in LSU this Saturday.

Last week we began including Havoc allowed here, showing which offenses can keep themselves out of trouble. Shockingly, Oregon State and Wyoming top the list with an interception a piece and just four fumbles between them.

Havoc rate is total plays divided by the total number of tackles for loss, forced fumbles or passes defended divided. It can take a defense from good to great.

Havoc allowed is interceptions, tackles for loss and fumbles offensively. Investing money in offenses that protect the ball is vital to a bettor.


All odds below as of Morning morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


My handicapping always starts with the Action Network power ratings, but the Havoc statistic for both offense and defense will be used to gauge which teams can cause volatility and lead to betting value.

College Football Week 7 Havoc Rankings

PD is passes defensed, FF is Forces Fumbles, and TFL representing Tackles for Loss. Havoc Rate is calculated per the Five Factors definition.

Navy at Tulsa (+1)

Before we can get to my Week 7 play, we have to flash back to Saturday.

In one of the more entertaining games from Week 6, Tulsa lost a heartbreaker to SMU in triple-overtime after leading by 21 at one point. It featured an SMU kickoff “fumble” for a Tulsa touchdown and plenty of kicker shenanigans.

SMU, which is just outside the top 25 in havoc, had 7 passes defensed and 6 tackles for loss against the Golden Hurricanes offense. Tulsa’s issue of chaos prevention has been consistent throughout the season, ranking 113th in havoc allowed.

Only four other teams in FBS have more tackles for loss allowed than Tulsa. That may prove problematic against a defense that lives in an opponents backfield.

Navy meanwhile took a commanding lead over Air Force in the second quarter before then held on late to win. An early Midshipmen interception at the Navy 24 kept the Falcons from taking the lead, and the Navy defenders also chipped in 8 tackles for loss and 2 sacks.

Navy’s trench play continues to be excellent on both sides of the ball.

The Navy defense has a top 25 rank in line yards, stuff rate and sack rate. That should be trouble for a Tulsa offensive line that is outside the top 100 in almost every single statistical category.

The market may not have caught one to just how good this Navy team has performed to date, ranking first in the nation in red zone points per attempt and top 25 in 3rd down conversions. Navy has a yards per play differential of +1.07 compared to Tulsa at -0.56.

Ultimately, Navy’s rank of No. 6 in defensive havoc will pressure the Tulsa offense into more mistakes. Combined with the differences in the trench, there should be no hangover from the Midshipmen after an underdog victory against Air Force.

Pick: Navy +1

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