Louisville at Georgia Tech Betting Odds & Pick: Cardinals in “Get Right” Mode (Friday, Oct. 9)
Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Hicks (5).
Louisville at Georgia Tech Odds
|Louisville Odds||-5 [BET NOW]|
|Georgia Tech Odds||+5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-213/+170 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||65 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
Georgia Tech is still rebuilding in Year 2 of the Geoff Collins era. A program change on and off the field is still a work in progress, as the Yellow Jackets have transitioned from a slow triple option to an uptempo 11 personnel grouping, led by a freshman quarterback. Collins will take the good and acknowledges the areas still needing attention.
The Yellow Jackets have established a mid-FBS rank in rushing success rate, a top-10 rank in power success, and a defense that ranks top 25 against passing success rate. The gaps fall in generating havoc on defense, defending pass explosiveness and one of the worst ranks in offensive finishing drives.
Louisville travels to Atlanta after two consecutive conference losses to Miami and Pittsburgh. The Cardinals posted a 21% success rate against the Panthers and allowed explosive drives on 30% of Miami’s offensive possessions. Despite the level of competition, head coach Scott Satterfield has one of the best finishing drives ratings on both sides of the ball.
The Cardinals have struggled in the area of offensive havoc allowed. Louisville ranks 70th in tackles for loss allowed with one of the worst offensive line ratings in run disruption. Per Sport Source Analytics, the Cardinals offensive line has incompetencies in run blocking and QB hurries after facing havoc-minded defenses in Pitt and Miami.
Betting Analysis & Pick
From Louisville’s point of view, this is a ‘get right’ game for the trenches after losses to Pitt and Miami. In stark contrast to either of the Cardinals’ previous opponents, the Yellow Jackets rank a paltry 60th in defensive line yards. That key deficiency should enable Louisville to create explosive running plays and should provide QB Malik Cunningham sufficient protection in the passing game.
— ACC Football (@ACCFootball) September 26, 2020
Georgia Tech has struggled in scoring opportunities on both sides of the ball, but especially on offense. The Yellow Jackets have scored on only 54% of their red-zone attempts, which ranks 72nd out of 73 active teams. Meanwhile, the Louisville defense ranks 12th in finishing drives, allowing just 3.33 points per trip when the opponent crosses the 40-yard line.
Our Action Network College Football Power Rankings project no value on the side, but the total may be inflated by Georgia Tech’s recent tempo change. Until the Yellow Jackets can convert points in the red zone, any total in the mid-60’s is questionable — especially when the opponent’s offense is one of the slower-paced units in the nation.
The Bet: Under 64.5 or better