Miami at Louisville Betting Odds & Pick: Hurricanes and Cardinals Settle the Score in Saturday Night Showdown (Sept. 19)

Miami at Louisville Betting Odds & Pick: Hurricanes and Cardinals Settle the Score in Saturday Night Showdown (Sept. 19) article feature image
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Aaron Gilbert/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Louisville Cardinals wide receiver Seth Dawkins (5).

  • In Saturday’s premier college football matchup, top-25 opponents Louisville and Miami will do battle to settle the ACC pecking order.
  • Collin Wilson breaks down this primetime matchup, which he characterizes as a “single-elimination playoff” for rights to challenge Clemson’s ACC throne.
  • Check out his full betting preview below with updated odds and his pick for tonight’s game.

Miami at Louisville Odds

Miami Odds -2 [BET NOW]
Louisville Odds +2 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 66.5 [BET NOW]
Time 7:30 p.m. ET
TV ABC

Odds updated as of Saturday at 6:30 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.


If we are looking for an ACC contender to emerge and compete with Clemson, consider this game a playoff. Miami solved its yearly issue of quarterback play with transfer D’Eriq King, who guided the Canes to a 45% success rate in passing downs against UAB. Offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee led his offense to an explosive drive rate of 31%, well above the national average of 13%. Over half of the Hurricanes drives had at least two first downs.

Louisville had similar offensive success in its Week 2 victory over Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers finished top-20 in success rate last season, but the Cardinals offense still exploited them. Louisville achieved an explosive drive percentage of 17%, and half of the Cardinals’ drives produced at least two first downs.

Quarterback Michael Cunningham continued to be a terror in space, completing 56% of his passes and accumulating four total touchdowns. Per Sport Source Analytics, the offensive line did not miss a beat with the departure of Mekhi Becton. Three offensive lineman were never beaten off the block, while Cunningham was hurried just four times in 180 total personal passing plays

Neither Western Kentucky nor UAB provided the offensive firepower to challenge as an underdog in Week 2. The Blazers were held to zero explosive drives against Miami, while the Hilltoppers only had one explosive drive after being spotted average starting field position at the 40-yard line. Western Kentucky gained 222 hidden yards, a stat based on the difference in starting field position between the teams and penalty yardage.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Check out our new CFB PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.

This handicap comes down to which defense can tackle the opposing team’s premier quarterback in space while shoring up any special teams mishaps. Miami certainly shored up their special teams issues with transfer Jose Borregales, who hit a 25-yard field goal and drilled all four extra points against UAB. Lou Hedley has added stability to the punt unit, averaging 47.5 yards on six punts against the Blazers.

In a game that should be of the narrowest margin, Miami’s D’Eriq King should have much more success against the Louisville front-seven in busted plays. Cunningham can burn the Hurricanes secondary, but getting through the Miami front-seven will be as difficult as it was in Louisville’s 25-point loss last season.

I will look to back the Hurricanes’ offensive explosiveness and special teams, while live-betting an over with any offensive drives not resulting in points.

The Bet: Miami +2.5

[Bet the Miami Hurricanes to cover now at PointsBet and get $250 FREE.]

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