Ohio State-Northwestern Betting Guide: Are Buckeyes Overvalued in Big Ten Championship?

Ohio State-Northwestern Betting Odds for Big Ten Championship

• Odds: Ohio State -14.5
• Over/Under: 61
• Time: 8 p.m. ET
• TV: FOX

Is Ohio State back after rolling Michigan, or does Northwestern have more underdog magic in store?

Let's start here: Something has to give — at least in regard to the spread. Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is 0-5 straight-up against Ohio State, including 1-4 against the spread, with an average margin of defeat of 28.8 points.

However, Fitzgerald has gone:

• 46-32-1 ATS as an underdog at Northwestern (14.6% ROI)
• 20-12-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog (20.8% ROI)
• Has 11 outright wins in those 33 games as a 10-plus point dog. This season alone, Northwestern is 3-0-1 ATS as a double digit underdog, including outright road wins over Iowa and Michigan State.

Let's take at some key metrics for both teams before we dig into the betting market around this game, analysis of the matchup and how our experts are betting it — including one side and an over/under play.

Tale of the Tape for Ohio State-Northwestern

Odds Movement for Big Ten Championship

By Danny Donahue

After opening at -12.5 at a few books, this line quickly moved to two touchdowns on Sunday afternoon, where it’s settled for much of the week. Even though Ohio State has picked up 73% of both bets and dollars as of writing (see live data here), most books had still been reluctant to give Northwestern bettors the hook at +14.5 before Friday morning.

The total has yet to see much movement, making only a slight jump from its opening number of 60 to 61. Seventy-seven percent of bets and 63% of dollars have landed on the over throughout the week.

Northwestern Built to Exceed Power Ratings

By Steve Petrella

Northwestern has plummeted in S&P+ rankings throughout the season, starting at 37th and now sitting at 78th — all while going 8-4 and 8-1 in conference to win the Big Ten West.

The advanced metrics hate the Cats, yet they keep winning.

I think Northwestern is built to outperform its underlying metrics used for systems like The Action Network power ratings and S&P+. The Wildcats are bottom 15 in penalties taken per game in three of the past four seasons and first this year. Their red-zone defense is impeccable, top 10 in each of the past three seasons, 24th this season. That helps them pull out those tight contests.

Northwestern has had a negative Second Order Win Total — how many games a team should win based on its advanced statistical profile — in each of the past five seasons.

At some point, you can't call it good luck. There's something to Fitzgerald's teams always hanging tough as an underdog and pulling out games they shouldn't win.

I think this spread is spot on and I won't be betting it, but always think twice before blindly fading Northwestern based on a talent gap or scheme mismatches.

Northwestern Can't Exploit Ohio State's Weakness

By Stuckey

Ohio State’s offense has been fine all season. More than fine, I should say, as the Buckeyes average the second-most yards in FBS at 543.9, trailing only Oklahoma.

The Buckeyes' main problems have come on defense, specifically in containing big plays. And the problem isn’t contained to just rushing or passing. It’s the reason the Buckeyes lost to Purdue and should have lost to Maryland, two teams that didn’t finish above .500 and combined to score 100 points against Ohio State.

That said, Northwestern is the opposite of the type of team that could exploit Ohio State's glaring weaknesses.

Rush explosiveness? Northwestern ranks 106th. Pass explosiveness? Ranked 124th. Pat's Cats could even be without their leading wide receiver.

Look no further than this chart, which illustrates the correlation between opponent explosiveness and the Ohio State defensive performance:

Ohio State allowed an average of 39.2 points per game to the five conference opponents it faced with an IsoPPP+ ranking in the top 100 while holding its four Big Ten opponents ranked outside the top 100 to 12.25 points per game.

You might say those offenses with less explosiveness will naturally score less, which is true. However, the point holds if you compare each opponent’s respective scoring average.

The five more explosive offenses averaged a touchdown more than their season average, while the bottom four averaged almost 10 points fewer. And Northwestern will have the lowest IsoPPP+ of any offense Ohio State will have faced this season, including Rutgers.

Bet to Watch

By Collin Wilson

On the Action College Podcast, my co-host Stuckey refers to Northwestern and Fitzgerald as purveyors of "voodoo black magic." The Wildcats posted an 8-1 record in conference, but suffered non-conference losses to Duke and Akron. Northwestern is just 6-6 ATS this season, but was 4-1 on the road.

The voodoo magic is very real: Their victories over Purdue and Nebraska had postgame win expectancies of 37% and 15%, respectively.

It's a fair question to ask how Northwestern has defied some sad statistical rankings, including 125th in offensive explosiveness, 106th in finishing drives and 125th in Special Teams S&P+.

A bend-don't-break mentality on defense relies on giving up most of the field but playing stout defense when it counts. Northwestern is 24th in defensive finishing drives, a stat that captures point per attempt past the 40-yard line. Ohio State has had issues scoring in opponent territory all season, with a ranking of 117th in red-zone offense.

The Wildcats don't make many mistakes, ranking first in the country in penalty yards per game (26.7). Northwestern has had 34 penalties on the season! It’s hard to ignore that Ohio State is 125th in the nation, committing almost triple the number of penalties.

The narrative for an Ohio State letdown spot after scoring 62 on Michigan fits, but the Buckeyes could know they're knocked out of the playoff if Oklahoma beats Texas earlier in the day. Fitzgerald has been getting the most out of his team all season, and after taking his foot off the throttle against Illinois last week, I expect the Wildcats' best effort in Indianapolis.

Collin's Pick: Northwestern +14.5

Ohio State Could Need Style Points

By Stuckey

Northwestern always seems to find a way to cover as a double-digit dog — the Cats are 11-1-1 in their past 13 games in this spot — but they really don't match up well here on either side of the ball. And as I mentioned, they have a dreadful special teams unit. Plus, the Ohio State athletic advantage should be even more pronounced in a dome.

I'm also petrified of Ohio State and the style points it might need: The Buckeyes know as well as any team how important those can be as a final impression on the College Football Playoff committee after stomping Wisconsin 59-0 in the Big Ten Championship Game en route to a playoff berth and national title in 2014.

Why I Like the Under

By Ken Barkley

As a rule, I think it's generally unwise to back a large favorite when that same favorite covered by a billion the week before and is facing a team that failed to cover against an awful team.

That sounds convoluted, but basically my point is just this: Market opinion of Ohio State is extremely high after the Michigan game, and market opinion of Northwestern is low — not only because of the game against Illinois, but the general consensus that this team just isn’t very good.

So as much as I think Ohio State might have a renaissance as we get close to the postseason, it's very tough given recent events to imagine Ohio State at -14 being valuable.

What might be valuable is the total.

We’ve already covered how Ohio State’s defense should actually be effective in this spot. Northwestern is the second-worst offense in S&P+ that Ohio State has faced this season, in terms of its ranking coming into the game.

Meanwhile, on the other side, Northwestern has held Michigan to 20 points, Michigan State to 19, Wisconsin to 17 and, even at their worst, the Wildcats allowed 31 to Notre Dame.

Fitzgerald has a knack for hanging around against more talented teams and the game plan usually involves the defense being incredibly effective. Considering how everyone watched Ohio State score on almost every possession last week on national TV against a great Michigan defense, it’s reasonable to assume this number is a bit inflated.

If you want a bet on this game, I would lean to the under.

Barkley's Pick: Under 61

Notable Injuries

Northwestern

• Senior CB Montre Hartage is probable to return after missing the past two games. Despite injury, he was named to third-team All-Big Ten.
• Junior CB Trae Williams is also probable to return after missing the past three games. He had 10 tackles, a sack and a forced fumble against Nebraska, to highlight his potential impact.
• And guess what? Senior safety Jared McGee is also probable to play after missing the past three games. (He did suit up last game on special teams.)

That’s three returning experienced starters in the Northwestern secondary. The news is still murky on leading receiver Flynn Nagel, who is still listed as questionable after missing the Illinois game.

Ohio State

• The Buckeyes lost fifth-year starting guard Demetrius Knox for the season in the final minutes of the Michigan game.
• Redshirt freshman Wyatt Davis, who is very talented but raw, will make his first start in Knox’s place.

Trends to Know

By Evan Abrams

Urban Meyer is 4-2 straight-up and ATS in the six conference championship games he's coached, including 2-1 in each with Ohio State.

In those six games, Meyer has only been listed as a touchdown favorite in a conference championship once: In 2008 when Florida was a 10-point favorite with Tim Tebow against Nick Saban and Alabama.

Florida won 31-20, covered the spread and then beat Oklahoma to win the national title.

Meyer enters this game 11-1 (91.7%) this season, compared to 8-4 (66.7%) for the Wildcats.

Since 2005, Meyer is 39-49-1 ATS (42.6%) in the 69 games he's coached in which his team had a win percentage at least 25 points higher than his opponent, losing bettors 11.3 units to make him the nation's least profitable coach in this spot.

When the game is played in October or later, he is 18-29 ATS (38.3%), including 8-18 ATS (30.8%) since 2013.

By John Ewing

Northwestern failed to cover as 14.5-point favorites against Illinois in Week 13 while Ohio State easily beat Michigan as a 4.5-point underdog. Since 2005, it's been profitable to bet teams that didn’t cover against those that did in the game prior to a conference title showdown: 22-16-1 (58%) ATS.

Underdogs of 14 or more points, like Northwestern, have gone 6-2 ATS.

By Stuckey

Northwestern went 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) away from Evanston this season, despite being an underdog in four of the five games, including double-digit underdogs in two.

Nothing sums up Northwestern’s season more than the fact that their lowest margin of victory on the road came in the one game in which they were favored in (vs. Rutgers); the Cats won by three points as a 20-point favorite.