It's been a long, winding road to get to this point in the week, but it's finally college football Saturday.
Last week, the return of MACtion and the Pac-12 made everything feel whole again. While we still have games this week, the full rebirth lasted all of one week.
College football has been decimated by COVID-19 in Week 11, canceling or postponing a dozen games, most notably from the SEC and Pac-12, including Alabama vs. defending national champion LSU.
But on the bright side, we still have games, and the docket features more big-name programs as the day progresses. With a smaller slate, two games made it onto my betting card this week. Check out the Action Network Power Ratings for all Week 11 games and follow me on the Action App for the latest updates.
My College Football Betting Card for Week 11
Here's a rundown of my two favorite betting spots on Saturday's slate of games:
- 5:00 p.m. ET | #23 Northwestern vs. Purdue
- 7:00 p.m. ET | #6 Florida vs. Arkansas
Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
Northwestern vs. Purdue
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| Northwestern Odds | -3 [BET NOW] |
| Purdue Odds | +3 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +150/ -170 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 49.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV | BTN |
Pat Fitzgerald's efforts to resurrect the Wildcats program is noteworthy, even only three games into the 2020 season. After only covering and winning three games in 2019, Northwestern is undefeated and has covered every game this season.
The offense has been transformed with stability at the quarterback position under Indiana transfer Peyton Ramsey. In 75 passing attempts, Northwestern has just three drops on the season.
The defense has been the driver behind the Wildcats' success. Northwestern ranks top 20 in defensive Havoc, opponent pass explosiveness, coverage and Finishing Drives. While there has not been much pressure on the quarterback, the Wildcats defense has come up big when needed the most.
Purdue head coach Jeff Brohm released a list of players who will not see action against Northwestern, with Rondale Moore headlining the group. In the absence of the All-American has been David Bell, the wide receiver opposite of Moore who is working on his own All-American season. In 31 targets, Moore has four touchdowns and just one drop.
While COVID-19 has played a part in the Boilermakers' starting defense, the unit has produced a top-20 rank in opponent pass explosiveness and Finishing Drives. The biggest key is in Pro Football Focus' tackling grade of ninth in FBS.
Purdue has just six tackles for loss on the season and a grade of 106th in coverage. The Boilermakers have been willing to give up short passing, but have defended chunk plays through the air better than any team in the Big Ten.
One element that will be missing when the new heavyweights from the Big Ten West collide is a pass rush. Each of these teams ranks in the bottom 15 in FBS in Sack Rate. That might only be a positive for Purdue, as the Boilermakers pass at a 59% rate.
While Northwestern has not put up the numbers Purdue has in tackling, it has feasted on Havoc plays.
As discussed in the Havoc Ratings for Week 11, Northwestern ranks third in the nation in passes defended per game. Purdue's offense has been subpar in rushing and in scoring opportunities, which will be a bad combination against a Wildcat team ranking fifth in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Northwestern will also have its share of problems putting points on the board. Opponent Passing Success Rate and explosive playmaking is the forte of the Purdue defense.
Our Action Network projections make this game a Pick'em. Taking each side with points live during the game should be the play.
As for the total, these defenses are stingy past the 40-yard line. Northwestern has relied on Havoc and coverage, with Purdue excelling in tackling and Finishing Drives. Look for points to be at a premium.
Pick: Game Total Under 50.5 or better
Arkansas vs. Florida
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| Arkansas Odds | +17 [BET NOW] |
| Florida Odds | -17 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +525 / -770 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 60.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
My university is undefeated against the spread in 2020, which has this alum singing, "Oh Lord, it's hard to be humble when you're an Arkansas Razorback fan" daily. That tune is rambled universally by Razorbacks fans after victories in any sport, leading to high aspirations on the Hill in Fayetteville.
The biggest news on the Arkansas side is head coach Sam Pittman testing positive for COVID-19, which will keep the coach of the year candidate from traveling to The Swamp.
But, luckily for the Razorbacks faithful, the rest of Pittman's staff is elite. As a result, there is no reflection in the Arkansas power rating without Pittman because of coordinators Kendal Briles and Barry Odom. Both coaches are responsible for the game plan, execution and halftime adjustments.
Arkansas continues to cover despite deficiencies in every facet. The Razorbacks are outside of the top 100 in rush explosiveness, tackling and special teams. The most explosive player on offense has been Treylon Burks, who averages 6.4 yards after contact on rushing attempts.
Only three players in the country have as many rushing attempts and more yards after contact. Those numbers are even more impressive considering Burks' primary position is wide receiver.
Will the Gators be able to survive the hangover of defeating Georgia for the first time since 2016? The biggest takeaway stat from the cocktail party was Florida finally showing up on third down, limiting the Bulldogs to two conversions in 13 attempts. A 4-1 Gators team is projected to win the SEC East with a remaining schedule of Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU.
Florida's best weapon is tight end Kyle Pitts, who suffered a concussion after a brutal collision against Georgia. Quarterback Kyle Trask leaned on Pitts the most, as the tight end holds a team best in first downs, receiving yards and touchdowns. In 35 total targets this season, Pitts has yet to drop a pass or fumble the ball.
The Florida defense had its best day against Georgia, but the question remains whether or not it can deliver the same level of play for a second week in a row. The Gators still rank outside the top 100 in tackling, coverage and Rushing Success Rate. Florida improved marginally to 85th in opponent third-down conversion rate following its game against Georgia.
The balance in this game hangs on the news of Pitts' availability. Florida is still very much in the national-title picture, but a loss at any point does not hurt its chances to compete against Alabama for the SEC Championship.
The Action Network projection is dead on with the current market, but any steam on the Florida number with or without Pitts will require a small play on Arkansas leading up to kick.
Dan Mullen commented that the "mental toughness and mental attitudes" from Arkansas do not show up in the stat line. This is apparent with Arkansas, which ranks in the bottom half of almost every offensive statistical category.
If there is an angle on this game, it is the full-game under. The Pace Report projected a total of 58 points, with Florida running a tempo that is 88th in the country. The Gators would take a hit as a pass-first offense without Pitts, while the Arkansas defense is top-20 in coverage and Defensive Finishing Drives.
Pick: Game total Under 62
