The 2025-26 College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday, Dec. 19, with a matchup between the No. 8 Oklahoma Sooners and No. 9 Alabama Crimson Tide.
These two teams met earlier in the season when the Sooners went into Tuscaloosa and emerged victorious, 23-21, on Nov. 15.
For the rematch, Alabama once again opened as a favorite, but the line shifted at most sportsbooks to make Oklahoma a short favorite.
Three of our experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast agree with the line move.
Let's take a look at our College Football Playoff predictions and NCAAF picks for Oklahoma vs. Alabama in the CFP first round below.
Catch the College Football Playoff for the best price – starting at $4.99 with Sling 1 Day Pass!
Oklahoma vs Alabama Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +100 | 40.5 -108o / -112u | -115 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -120 | 40.5 -108o / -112u | -105 |
Stuckey's Pick: Oklahoma ML -115
You can make a fair case that Alabama dominated the first meeting, but I don't care. This Alabama team is trending in the wrong direction.
I don't know if quarterback Ty Simpson is fully healthy, and the Crimson Tide can't run the ball with or without Jam Miller. That's a huge problem against a stout Oklahoma defense at home at night.
Plus, the Sooners get some extra prep time here, which matters. OU quarterback John Mateer also has more time to get healthier, and head coach Brent Venables gets more time to scheme against a one-dimensional offense he's already seen.
Home-field advantage is real in this spot as well. Worth about 4.1 or 4.2 points, the crowd will be juiced up to the gills.
Remember last year's first-round playoff script? Ohio State destroyed Tennessee, and the home teams cleaned up against the spread. Four home teams, four covers. That's the kind of edge I'm thinking about here, especially with Oklahoma's defense and the time it has to prepare.
And don't sleep on special teams. Alabama has been a mess there all year. Its kicker has been shaky, and it had a punt blocked against Georgia. Well, those mistakes swing tight, low-scoring games.
Oklahoma's special teams, by contrast, are elite. Kicker Tate Sandell was a difference-maker who could win the Lou Groza Award. He was worth something like 1.5 points to the spread this season. He didn't miss from beyond 50 yards.
In a game with a total around 40, field position and special teams will be massive.
With a stellar defense, home crowd, prep time and a clear special-teams edge, give me Oklahoma. Boomer Sooner.
Collin Wilson's Pick: Oklahoma ML -115
I think we have yet to properly recognize what “home-field advantage” means in a College Football Playoff game after last year.
I make Oklahoma -2 here, but that feels like a secondary matter compared to what has been playing out on the field over the last few weeks.
Injuries are key here.
Even if Alabama running back Jam Miller is technically healthy, he’s not close to effective.
Quarterback Ty Simpson has never appeared on an availability report, but his On-Target Rate has dipped week after week. That feels injury-related more than just a talent drop.
Wide receiver Ryan Williams’ hip issue never really went away. I was texting with a scout this week who said Williams’ move from the outside to more slot work has gotten into his head, as he doesn't want to cross over the middle.
There are problems all over this Alabama team right now, and that's without mentioning the coaching noise with Kalen DeBoer, who has popped up as a candidate for Michigan's head coaching job.
Meanwhile, Oklahoma is getting healthier at key positions with quarterback John Mateer and defensive end R Mason Thomas having extra time to recover.
Some of it also goes back to the last game these teams played.
Alabama averaged 1.3 net yards per play more than Oklahoma in Tuscaloosa and still didn’t get it done. The Tide had 11 offensive possessions but only two explosive drives (10-plus yards per play) and three methodical drives. That’s not enough.
The other big thing is the 243 hidden yards, which correlate directly to special teams, field position and the little things that change games.
Mateer only had a single touchdown and 23 rushing yards, but that stat line fits Alabama’s chronic issues against mobile quarterbacks. If Mateer has a 50-yard rushing game with a score, that's more than what Alabama can produce on offense right now.
On the other side, Oklahoma’s defense is legit. The Sooners lead the nation in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Defensive Line Yards, and rank third in Havoc. Those aren’t fluky numbers.
Plus, special teams is a clear edge for the Sooners, as they rank 21st in Special Teams SP+ compared to Alabama at 113th.
I like Oklahoma to advance to face Indiana, which should be an absolute street fight with brass knuckles.
Catch the College Football Playoff for the best price – starting at $4.99 with Sling 1 Day Pass!
Duck's Pick: Oklahoma ML -115
It hasn't been a good stretch for the Tide since that loss to the Sooners about 4.5 weeks ago.
They can’t run the ball, and that’s bad news on the road in the College Football Playoff.
Alabama can’t sustain drives on the ground, and now it has given OU head coach Brent Venables two full weeks to scheme for this passing attack.
Oklahoma’s defense has been good at creating negative plays with 42 sacks on the season, and it's among the leaders in yards per rush allowed and red-zone defense.
The time off helps Oklahoma, too.
It should get a few offensive line pieces back, and both running backs — Xavier Robinson and Tory Blaylock — are expected to be healthy. Quarterback John Mateer also gets the longest stretch since his hand surgery to recover, which is big.
Now, Oklahoma’s offense hasn’t looked pretty at times, but its defense has been lights-out all year. Venables has generally had the upper hand when his unit faces a high-end offense, and that home playoff atmosphere only magnifies it.
This is a pick’em to me, so don’t overcomplicate it with the points. I just need a team to win the game, and I'm taking Oklahoma.
