2018 SEC Championship Betting Guide: Does Georgia Have Blueprint to Shock Alabama?

Dec 01, 2018 12:40 PM EST

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jake Fromm and Tua Tagovailoa

Alabama-Georgia Betting Odds for SEC Championship

  • Odds: Alabama -13.5
  • Over/Under: 63.5
  • Time: 4 p.m. ET
  • TV: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.

Sick of seeing Georgia and Alabama face off in big games? Sorry, but you’ll have to get used to it. The two national powers meet in the SEC Championship Game on Saturday from Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 11 months after playing for a national title on the same field.

Kirby Smart’s Georgia is being hailed as the “new Alabama” because of its recruiting prowess, brand name, money and overall potential. Saturday will be the first in a long line of tests to see how close UGA really is to becoming like Nick Saban’s empire.

Odds Moves for Alabama-Georgia

By Danny Donahue

It took only about 10 minutes for this line to jump from -10.5 to -13 after it opened on Sunday afternoon. Since then, however, movement has been much harder to come by.

Fifty-nine percent of bets accounting for 67% of dollars have come on Alabama, which finally made another move to -13.5 late Wednesday night.
Movement on the total has been equally rare this week. The over has drawn 69% of bets and 77% of money, but this number has risen by just one-half point despite the support.

The Blueprint to Slow Down Alabama

By Steve Petrella

The real blueprint is to hope Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has a dinged up knee. But if you can’t get that — he looked much healthier in the Iron Bowl last week — here’s what you need to do.

Get after the quarterback.

The only defense that really slowed down the Tide was Mississippi State (don’t make the case for LSU, it gave up almost 600 yards). The Bulldogs had three sacks and six tackles for loss against Bama and gave up only 305 yards. MSU’s defensive line is among the most disruptive in the country.

Every team wants to get after the quarterback, of course. I make this point because I don’t think Georgia can. The Dawgs have 20 sacks all season and rank 78th in sack rate.

Even last year with that unbelievable defense, they ranked just 68th, and we saw Tua pick them apart in the second half of the national title game.

Georgia’s secondary is excellent, but it can only hang on for so long. The Bulldogs will need to bring extra pressure to get after Tua, and he might make them pay a few times. He did last season.

The Blueprint to Score on Alabama

By Steve Petrella

Fortunately, Georgia’s offense has the makeup of a team that can put up some points on Alabama.

The Tide have been somewhat susceptible to big plays this season, ranking 76th in IsoPPP+ thanks in part to a young secondary. Georgia ranks 10th on offense by the same measure.

The Bulldogs also have balance. Alabama shut down mostly one-dimensional teams that couldn’t stretch the field like LSU, Mississippi State and Auburn.

Georgia ranks top 10 in rushing and passing S&P+, and I think Jake Fromm is the most underrated quarterback in the country. He’s been top 10 in yards per attempt in each of the last two years, but still gets the game manager label.

Why I’m Betting Georgia

By Collin Wilson



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