Texas-Oklahoma State Betting Guide: When Tom Herman Is a Favorite…
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sam Ehlinger and Justice Hill
Texas at Oklahoma State Betting Pick, Odds
- Odds: Texas -3
- Over/Under: 62
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- TV: ABC
Tom Herman’s exploits as an underdog are well known. But he’s just 12-20-2 as a favorite, and is now in a tricky spot in Stillwater as expectations for Texas continue to rise.
This line jumped all the way to Texas -3.5 despite our power ratings indicating it should be a pick’em. Is there value on the Cowboys, or will the Longhorns continue their magical season?
>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets
Market Moves for Texas-Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is unsurprisingly the less popular side in this one, but its 38% of bets have accounted for 57% of money wagered. Still, the line is moving toward the Longhorns, who have gone from -1.5 to -3.5 since opening.
As for the total, the under has been the more popular bet, getting two-thirds of total tickets. The 33% of bets on the over have accounted for 66% of dollars, which has moved the number from 59.5 to 62.
Texas quarterback Sam Ehlinger is expected to play after spraining his throwing shoulder against Baylor two weeks ago. The trouble is, coach Tom Herman said Ehlinger was still experiencing some soreness as of Wednesday.
Ehlinger has been solid this year with 7.4 yards per attempt and a 65.7% completion rate. If he’s not fully healthy, the Texas offense could be in trouble.
Perfect Time to Sell Texas?
This is the perfect time to buy low on the ‘Pokes, while selling high on a Texas team that…
- Hasn’t done much as a favorite in 2018
- Could get caught looking ahead to West Virginia
As most of you know, I’m President of the Bet Tom Herman as an Underdog Fan Club, but let’s be realistic about this Texas team: the ‘Horns are not a top-10 caliber squad. I’d go as far as to say the Horns are right on the borderline of the top 20 when you look at their overall profile.
This is a team that has taken that national TV win over rival Oklahoma and created one big misconception about how good it is. Do not forget this is the same team that:
- Lost to Maryland
- Barely beat Tulsa at home
- Held on by five at Kansas State
- Beat Baylor by six at home
The USC and TCU wins against two programs in down years now look even less impressive than they appeared at the time.
Texas really struggles to move the ball on the ground (3.9 yards per rush or 93rd in the nation) and really lacks explosiveness in that department (126th), which is precisely how you attack an Oklahoma State defense that has been gashed for big plays on the ground all season.
On defense, Texas can’t get to the quarterback to take advantage of a really poor pass-blocking Oklahoma State offensive line. The Horns’ defense also ranks 115th in passing explosiveness, which spells doom against a ‘Pokes defense that ranks 15th in that same category and fifth overall in big-play rate.
Expect Oklahoma State to burn Texas on a number of deep balls and pull out the minor upset in Stillwater, although it wouldn’t be an upset according to my numbers.
After Okie State made it three straight in this series for the first time ever — one that UT leads 24-8 — I think the Pokes make it four consecutive in four years.
Stuckey’s Pick: Oklahoma State +3.5
Mixed Signals on Both Teams
By Ken Barkley
Honestly, a confusing game from a lot of different standpoints. First off, Ehlinger is on track to play but nursing a shoulder injury he sustained against Baylor the week before last.
Raw numbers tell me that Texas shouldn’t even be a favorite here, and this should basically be a pick’em, but the numbers feeding that projection are skewed by the opponents each team has played.
Texas’ numbers include games against Oklahoma, TCU and even USC (none of whom the Cowboys have played) while Oklahoma State has much lesser games against Missouri State, South Alabama, Kansas and Kansas State out of the way already (more difficult games are ahead).
Oklahoma State’s metrics are inflated, no doubt. But the ‘Pokes also have to have a terrible standing in the market after failing to cover two in a row by large margins.
What to do in such a weird spot? Trust your numbers, or no? I think considering Ehlinger is banged up, and Texas has played only one true road game so far this season, there are reasons to like more than a field goal, but with mixed signals everywhere in the criteria I evaluate, I think it’s probably better to pass and wait for a better spot.
Trends to Know
By John Ewing
As a home underdog against a conference opponent, Oklahoma State is 7-13 straight up and against the spread under Mike Gundy.
Gundy lost his first five games against Texas, but since 2010, Oklahoma State has won six of the last eight meetings and three in a row.
By Evan Abrams
Against both Kansas State and Iowa State, Oklahoma State has dropped two consecutive games SU and ATS as big favorites. The Cowboys will try to pull themselves out of this type of hole for the fifth time in the last decade.
If history repeats itself, don’t count on the Cowboys: Oklahoma State is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 12.4 PPG after they’ve dropped two in a row SU and ATS under Gundy.