UConn vs Army Odds & Predictions: Target Saturday’s Total
Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: UConn’s Victor Rosa.
UConn vs Army Odds
| UConn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 44.5 -110o / -110u | -375 |
After winning 10 total games over the last five seasons, the UConn Huskies are officially bowl-eligible.
It’s the first time since 2015 that the Huskies will be playing during bowl season. That’s all possible thanks to a three-game win streak highlighted by their most recent victory over Liberty.
Connecticut trailed twice in the second half but scored the go-ahead touchdown in the closing minutes.
TOUCHDOWN ‼️@_ZionTurner on the 💵to @kevens_clercius!#HuskyRevolutionpic.twitter.com/4Dgm0sftaN
— UConn Football (@UConnFootball) November 12, 2022
On the other end of the spectrum, it’s been a disappointing season for Army. The offense has been decimated by injuries, and the defense has been a shell of its form from last season. That has led the Black Knights to a 3-7 record.
Both teams feature run-heavy offenses, and this will create value on the total in this matchup.
Connecticut Huskies
The Connecticut Huskies are officially going bowling!
Not to take anything away from Connecticut’s unprecedented run, but sometimes you need a bit of luck on your side to end a five-year drought. The Huskies certainly had fortune on their side this season.
The program defeated FCS Central Connecticut State, along with bottom feeders Florida International and UMass. They upset Fresno State while the Bulldogs' star quarterback Jake Haener was injured and Boston College in a game where Eagles quarterback Phil Jurkovec only saw action in the first half.
But despite that, you can’t take anything away from their upset victory over Liberty. The program was outgained by 166 yards of total offense in the game and overcame two second-half deficits to secure the victory.
Quarterback Zion Turner has been more of a game manager. He’s averaged 102 passing yards per game while tossing nine touchdowns to five interceptions–and that’s all that head coach Jim Mora has asked of him.
The Huskies have leaned on their rushing attack that ranks fifth in the nation in Rush Rate (65%). On such plays, the Huskies have produced 4.6 yards per carry and just over 180 yards per game. The offense utilizes a stable of running backs to move the chains.
Army Black Knights
It’s been a tough season for Army. Key offensive players have been injured, the defense hasn’t gotten stops, and now they are eliminated from any postseason play.
Some positive news comes in the form of quarterback Tyhier Tyler, who returned from injury against Air Force two weeks ago. But since his return, the offense has totaled just 16 points.
Army ranks third nationally in running plays, owning a Rush Rate of 80%. On those plays, the unit has averaged 4.7 yards per carry. As a result, the Black Knights are putting up over 250 rushing yards per game, which ranks fourth in the country.
But the injury to Tyrell Robinson has hurt this offense. Robinson was the sideline-to-sideline threat who has been out since the week-six matchup with Wake Forest.
Army’s defense hasn’t been great this season either. The group ranks outside the top 115, allowing 5.1 yards per carry and 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Luckily in this matchup, the unit will be facing a one-dimensional Connecticut offense that leans on its rushing attack.
The Black Knights defense has played particularly well the last two weeks against run-heavy offenses in Air Force and Troy. They hope to continue that trend in this matchup with the Huskies.
UConn vs Army Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UConn and Army match up statistically:
UConn Offense vs. Army Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 84 | 129 | |
| Line Yards | 110 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 128 | 113 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 24 | 101 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 128 | |
| Finishing Drives | 73 | 80 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Army Offense vs. UConn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 99 | |
| Pass Success | 126 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 128 | 83 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 42 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 74 | 85 |
| PFF Coverage | 38 | 79 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 129 | 79 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.7 (123) | 30.3 (127) |
| Rush Rate | 67.0% (5) | 85.0% (2) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UConn vs Army Betting Pick
I question the motivation from both sides in this matchup.
Connecticut is coming off one of its biggest wins over the last decade as the Huskies are now bowl eligible, and this screams letdown spot in their final game of the year. Army doesn’t have much to play for with a 3-7 record on its season and will be looking forward to its showdown with Navy.
This matchup is as close to two service academies facing off as you can get. Connecticut ranks fifth in the nation in Rush Tate while Army ranks second. That will leave the clock continuously moving in this matchup.
Though neither defense has been particularly great this season, they have both been strong the last few weeks. After allowing 35 points per game to their first four FBS opponents, the Black Knights have improved that number to 16 points per game over the last four weeks.
Connecticut games have gone under the number in eight of the Huskies' 11 matchups this season, and that trend will continue against the Black Knights on Saturday.
Pick: Under 43.5 (Play to Under 42) |
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