Bills vs. Dolphins Odds & Betting Predictions - November 9, 2025

Via @Stuckey2

Injuries and spot made me do it

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Allen has only cleared this number in 3 of 8 games, and this sets up as another spot where I’m not expecting him to lean on his legs much. The Bills should be able to build a comfortable lead and lean on James Cook and the run game, keeping Allen from taking unnecessary hits in what looks like a low-leverage matchup. He’s usually good for one designed run, and there’s always the risk of 1–2 kneel-downs at the end (the main threat to this prop). But as we’ve seen the past couple seasons, when the Bills are up big, they’re quick to hand garbage time to Mitch Trubisky, who often takes those kneels instead. I’m also projecting a lower scramble rate than his 9.4% season mark. He’s scrambled on just 3.7% of dropbacks vs Cover 2 (Miami plays it a league-high 30% of the time) and only 3.6% vs the blitz (the Dolphins blitz at the 4th-highest rate). Combine that with Miami’s weakened pass rush (Jaelan Phillips was traded (their top pass rusher), Chop Robinson is doubtful, and Matthew Judon (likely has to step up in Chop’s place) has posted a career-low 6.1% pressure rate) and Allen should have one of his cleaner pockets of the year. That setup limits how often he’ll need to take off and run. I’m projecting him around 5.8 rush attempts with about a 63% chance to stay under 6.5.

I probably don't need too much convincing to sell you on the Bills being better than the Dolphins. This is the No. 2 DVOA offense against the 29th-ranked defense, and the Bills have owned this division rivalry, winning 14 of the last 15 with an average margin of victory of 15.0 PPG. Tua Tagovailoa is 1-9 against Buffalo with as many interceptions as touchdowns. But despite those lopsided numbers, Josh Allen is just 7-7-1 ATS against Miami in the regular season. That's why we have to bet against the number, not just moneylines! It's also why we're betting Bills 2H at a much more reasonable -3.5 (-110, bet365). You always want Bills 2H, especially in games with bigger spreads — and especially in this matchup. The Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in the second half this season, hanging for awhile but not til the end. The Bills are 6-2 ATS 2H, and that's been a consistent spot to back Josh Allen. Allen is 67% ATS for his career against the second-half spread; $100 bettors blindly backing Allen every second half of his career would be up around $3200, almost four times as profitable as the next best active QB. Any idea which team Allen has been best against the second-half number? You guessed it — Allen is 12-3 ATS (80%) against Miami, nearly as profitable in the second half against just the Dolphins as every other second-half QB is in their entire career. The Bills cover by 6.8 PPG in those Dolphins game, so place a bit of your bet on Bills to win the second half by 10 at +200 (bet365). And for all that Allen talk, if the Bills do have a big second half, it'll almost definitely mean a heavy dose of James Cook. Miami's run defense has been, pardon the pun, absolutely cooked in losses this season. The Dolphins allow an average of 19.0 rushing attempts to opposing RB1s in losses for 109 yards. That includes 119 yards to Derrick Henry, 124 to Kimani Vidal, and 206 to Rico Dowdle, and six of seven RB1s have at least 18 carries in Miami losses. Cook himself ran 19 times for 108 yards and a score in the first meeting. He's had at least 19 carries in five straight Bills wins, and he's gone over 100 rushing yards in each of those five too, averaging 137 YPG. Play Cook to go over 17.5 rushing attempts (-116, DraftKings) and that volume makes 100+ yards a good play at +155, along with 120 at +320 (both bet365). Keep an eye on Cook's injury status as Sunday approaches.

@wheatonbrando https://myaction.app/fo0oUthH6Xb

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NFL INT PICKS - W10

#EV

4% ev play to +100

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