The Buffalo Bills (6-2) and Miami Dolphins (2-7) face off in NFL Week 10 on Sunday, Nov. 9. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are favored by -9.5 on the spread over the Dolphins (Bills -9.5); the over/under is set at 50. The Bills are -500 moneyline favorites and the Dolphins are +375 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 10 preview and Bills vs Dolphins prediction for today's AFC East clash.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction
- Bills vs Dolphins pick: Dolphins +9.5 (-110)
My Bills vs Dolphins best bet is on the Dolphins to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Dolphins Odds
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +375 |
Bills vs Dolphins NFL Week 10 Preview
Mike McDaniel has only been an underdog of six or more points in five games as head coach of the Dolphins — his team is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games.
One of those instances was at Highmark Stadium against the Bills back in Week 3. Miami made the game competitive by averaging 5.2 yards per carry on the ground; it should be able to replicate a similar performance versus the 30th-ranked Buffalo run defense, according to DVOA.
Buffalo’s defense is coming off its best performance of the season in its victory over the Chiefs. However, Kareem Hunt averaged 4.5 yards per carry on his 11 carries. For context, Hunt has averaged less than four yards per carry during his time with the Chiefs in both 2024 and 2025 prior to that game.
It is the Dolphins’ front seven that has made noticeable strides in stopping the run. Over their last three games, Miami has limited Quinshon Judkins, Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry to a combined 3.9 yards per carry. In fact, when looking at EPA/play (expected points added), the Dolphins rank as the second-best rush defense over that span of games.
Dolphins defensive coordinator Anthony Weaver uses an extra defender in the box to assist in stopping the run at a 46% rate, the sixth-highest mark in the league. While it may sound ill-advised to keep fewer defenders in pass defense when facing the likes of Josh Allen, the foundation of the Buffalo offense is clearly the ground game.
Furthermore, the passing game for Buffalo lacks playmakers on the outside who can separate consistently — Allen targeted outside receivers just seven times in their win over the Dolphins in Week 3. Simply put, if the Dolphins continue to play sound run defense, as they have in recent weeks, they match up quite well with the Bills.
Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense have certainly had their ups and downs this season, but Tagovailoa's play has actually improved throughout the season despite losing Tyreek Hill to injury. In the six games without his star wide receiver, Tagovailoa has completed 67% of his passes and has accounted for the 10th-most first downs over that span.
McDaniel has put even more of an emphasis on getting the ball out of Tagovailoa's hands quickly, as his sack rate has dropped to a healthy 5.1% since Week 3.
While Tagovailoa has just a 6% deep throw rate, he doesn’t need to push the ball down the field often against a Bills defense that ranks 29th in tackling grade, per Pro Football Focus. For context, of the bottom-10 teams in tackling grade, only the Bills and Chargers have a winning record this season.
The name of the game for Miami today is to sustain drives on offense and limit the total number of possessions. It’s a formula that should be easily replicated from the previous meeting, as the Buffalo offense had just three first-half possessions and eight in total for the game.
The chances of the away team winning by a margin decrease dramatically if De'Von Achane is averaging more than five yards per carry and Tagovailoa is completing a high percentage of his passes.
Bills vs Dolphins Prediction, Spread Betting Analysis
Sean McDermott is just 14-17-3 as head coach of the Bills when his team is favored by more than seven points, covering the spread at just a 45.2% rate.
In the eight games his team has been substantial favorites of more than a touchdown as the visiting team, they are 2-6 against the number.
The public has not had a great season betting on the NFL in 2025, and with more than 80% of all spread tickets in this game siding with the Bills after their biggest win of the season, I am more than content backing the home underdog Dolphins in this spot.
Pick: Dolphins +9.5
Spread
I'm taking the Dolphins to cover the spread.
Moneyline
I have no play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I am avoiding the total in this matchup.
