We have you covered with a total of eight NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 10.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Giants vs Bears, Ravens vs Vikings among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have a pair of picks for later in the day for Rams vs 49ers and Lions vs Commanders. We also have bets for Browns vs Jets, Saints vs Panthers and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 10 of the NFL season on November 9.
NFL Player Props Week 10
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Ravens vs. Vikings
J.J. McCarthy Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Just by looking at game logs, I know this might not seem like a great bet, but this line on J.J. McCarthy is far too low.
McCarthy hasn't passed a ton in his three starts, but Carson Wentz was passing at a huge clip in the games he played, and we've seen head coach Kevin O'Connell sling the ball 40+ times with many QBs over the last few years.
The Ravens pass defense hasn't been great this season, and with Lamar Jackson back in the fold, their offense is likely going to be putting up a lot of points today.
I have McCarthy projected for nearly 35 pass attempts, making this a great bet.
Pick: J.J. McCarthy Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
Browns vs. Jets
Quinshon Judkins Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
The last time we bet on Quinshon Judkins was Week 7 against Miami. I got in at 84.5 yards, and the line moved to the mid-90s by game time.
Cleveland dominated, Judkins piled up 25 carries, and he finished with 84 yards on the dot.
Let's hope we get some better efficiency this time.
Even with Quinnen Williams, the Jets were allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game. Now, Williams is in Dallas.
The Jets have struggled mightily to make tackles. They've given up the fifth-most yards after contact per carry.
Judkins has done a solid job forcing missed tackles. Among 23 running backs with 100+ carries, he ranks eighth in yards after contact per carry.
Cleveland has the third-lowest neutral pass rate since Dillon Gabriel took over in Week 5.
Judkins has 23 and 25 carries in the two games that Gabriel has kept competitive.
Cleveland is favored today. If the Browns get crushed by a Jets team that sold everyone at the trade deadline, I'll tip my cap.
Pick: Quinshon Judkins Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Bills vs. Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Brit Devine
Since Tyreek Hill went down with injury, Jaylen Waddle has 82+ yards in 4-of-5 games, with his lone miss coming in a rainy, windy blowout loss against the Browns.
Waddle is the leader in the passing game with everyone else looking rather inept on the field; he should once again be able to best a rather pedestrian line.
He has the highest yards per route run against 2-high looks of the available full-time receiving options left on the team, which is a coverage shell the Bills have deployed at the seventh-highest rate in the league this year.
I'm not sure why the books keep setting Waddle's yards line so low.
Pick: Jaylen Waddle Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Giants vs. Bears
Olamide Zaccheaus Anytime TD (+450)
By Grant Neiffer
Despite Luther Burden III likely returning, Olamide Zaccheaus should continue having a big role in this Bears offense.
Zaccheaus has been playing around 60% of snaps (even with Burden playing), and has been peppered with targets in the last two games (15).
The Giants have a below-average defense, and while they struggle more against the rush, they are still below average versus the pass.
Zaccheaus has good red-zone usage this season (eight targets), and I have his true odds of scoring around +350.
Pick: Olamide Zaccheaus Anytime TD (+450)
Saints vs. Panthers
Devaughn Vele Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
By Nick Galaida
Following the trade of WR Rashid Shaheed, there seems to be a clear organizational priority to get Devaughn Vele involved in the team's offense in Week 10.
Saints head coach Kellen Moore said earlier this week that they have to "get him on the field."
Moore followed up those comments on Wednesday by saying that Vele's going to be "very involved and I'm excited about that," per NOLA.com.
It's possible that this is all just coach-speak. It's also possible that rookie QB Tyler Shough simply cannot execute in Vele's direction on Sunday.
However, it's rare that we see such a clear and obvious organizational intent to get a player involved.
There should be opportunities for Vele against the Panthers.
Pick: Devaughn Vele Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Jacoby Brissett Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
This line is all over the place, but I love the value we are getting on Jacoby Brissett at 220.5 with this number as high as 235.5 on FanDuel.
With the Cardinals as 6.5-point road underdogs and likely playing from behind and throwing a bunch, this game sets up well for Brissett to find success through the air.
Seattle has also been incredible against the run. Even if it's not a game script where the Cardinals are playing from behind, they will likely find much more success through the air than trying to attack this stiff Seattle run defense.
Brissett has been incredible since taking over at quarterback for the Cardinals, easily cruising past this number in all three games and averaging 286.6 passing yards per game.
Seattle has allowed 241.1 passing yards per game this season, and it has faced a pretty soft schedule of quarterbacks thus far.
Grab this number while you can.
Pick: Jacoby Brissett Over 227.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Rams vs. 49ers
Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+110)
By Grant Neiffer
I didn't think there would be a game this season where we would get Williams at plus odds to score, but I'm going to take advantage of it.
The 49ers have been a below-average defense this season, ranking near the bottom of the league against both the rush and pass.
With Blake Corum taking up some of the rushing-game usage this season, Williams doesn't have the same role in the Rams offense that we saw last season, but he's still the go-to running back.
When in the red zone this season, Williams has 24 carries and seven targets (compared to nine and one, respectively, for Corum), and he has scored a total of six TDs on the season.
I have Williams at over a 50% chance of scoring.
Pick: Kyren Williams Anytime TD (+110)
Lions vs. Commanders
Jared Goff Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
By Chris Prince
This is a bet on the potential game script.
With the Commanders in disarray right now and the Lions heavy 8.5-point favorites, I just don't see Jared Goff having to be ultra aggressive through the air.
Goff has eclipsed 30 pass attempts in only two games this season — way back in Week 1 in a come-from-behind-game against the Packers, and last week in a loss to the Vikings.
The Lions should be able to control this game on the ground against a middling Commanders run defense, and with Marcus Mariota now at quarterback for the Commanders, I just don't see them pushing the Lions out of their comfort zone enough to force Goff to go to the air more and clear this number.
