Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
Pending
R.Stevenson u56.5 Rush Yds-115
SEA
@
NE
0.58u
02/08 11:30 PM
Rhamondre has certainly been on fire over the last four games heading into the Super Bowl, but I think we could see a dip in both his volume and efficiency in the big game.
First, let’s talk about volume. The Patriots have won six straight games and went 14–3 in the regular season, and as a result, they’ve played with the lead 62% of the time this season. That’s allowed them to lean on the run at a higher rate due to game script. However, they still ranked 5th in pass rate over expected, so if they ever do get into a trailing script, we could see their designed rush attempt volume to RBs specifically plummet.
We also saw TreVeyon Henderson essentially phased out last week, with Rhamondre racking up 25 carries. A lot of that shift likely had to do with the weather and the massive amount of snow we saw in the second half, as the Pats were simply trying to run out the clock and lean on their defense to keep Jarrett Stidham from beating them. As rare 4.5-point underdogs here, I’m projecting the Pats to play with the lead at a 30% lower rate than usual, which is very high for this late in the season. That means I’m projecting their overall dropback rate to go up and their designed rush attempts to go down, with Henderson mixing in closer to his typical role. That leaves Rhamondre projected closer to 13–13.5 rush attempts, making his Under 14.5 rush attempts (current line) very much in play.
The reason I’d rather fade his yardage, though, is that I also expect a dip in efficiency. Rhamondre has been great this year, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, but the Pats have had by far the easiest schedule this season. The Seahawks defense ranks 1st in DVOA and will be his toughest matchup to date.
Stevenson has led the league with a ridiculous 6.9 yards per carry against stacked boxes. However, Seattle uses a stacked box at the 2nd lowest rate in the league and instead tends to use seven defenders in the box at one of the highest rates. When facing seven defenders in the box, Rhamondre’s efficiency plummets, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which ranks 45th out of 48 qualified RBs. He also runs inside the tackles at the 4th highest rate, essentially straight into the teeth of the defense, which will make it tougher for him to rack up explosive runs. If he struggles early, we could also see Henderson mix in more, which would further lower Rhamondre’s volume.
I’m projecting him closer to 49.5 rushing yards, with around a 60% chance to stay under 56.5.
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| Yesterday | 3-2-0 | 60% | 0.42u |
| Last 7 Days | 6-8-0 | 43% | -1.23u |
| Last 30 Days | 48-34-1 | 58% | 6.24u |
| All Time | 2057-1654-32 | 55% | 238.08u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
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| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
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| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
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