Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2449 Posts
Sean Koerner
2449 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.1K
Followers
450.7K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
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Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pending
I switched to 0.5u as my base unit for tracking purposes last year. The main reason was simply to lower the threshold for what gets elevated to an official play, which has naturally led to a lot more volume. If you’ve noticed, I’ve averaged 100+ plays per month since NFL season wrapped up. So when I label something as a full-unit play these days, that’s really the equivalent of a 2-unit play under my old system. I don’t do that very often, but I like this one enough to make an exception. Here’s why: Early is a bit of a sell-high candidate right now. He’s averaged 6.3 Ks over his last 6 starts, but my expected K model had him closer to 5.2 over that span, more than a full strikeout lower. A lot of that gap comes from opponents chasing at a 36% rate. Anytime hitters are expanding the zone that often, a pitcher is naturally going to run closer to his strikeout ceiling. The problem is that kind of chase rate is difficult to sustain, and once hitters become more disciplined, the strikeouts tend to come down quickly. Interestingly, Early had the opposite thing happening earlier in the season when hitters were taking too many strikes in the zone against him. It feels like teams may have overcorrected and become a bit too aggressive. The Rangers profile as the type of team that could bring things back toward league average. They’re middle of the pack in plate discipline and should be more balanced in both attacking strikes and laying off pitches outside the zone. If Early starts seeing a more typical approach from opposing hitters, his underlying metrics don’t really support the 23% K rate he’s posted recently. My numbers have him closer to a 20.5% true-talent strikeout pitcher right now. The lineup construction also works against him. Early has shown pretty extreme platoon splits and Texas is only sending two lefties to the plate today, which subtly lowers his strikeout expectation. It also helps that Cody Freeman is in the lineup. He only has a handful of plate appearances this season, but he’s the type of hitter who is very difficult to strike out. I have him around a 15.5% expected K rate, so anytime he’s in the lineup it makes Texas just a bit tougher to punch out. I’m projecting Early closer to -165 to stay under 5.5 strikeouts. We are getting it at plus odds - full unit play.
179
22
Futures
Past Performance
Yesterday0-0-00%
0.00u
Last 7 Days16-4-080%
6.25u
Last 30 Days48-43-351%
4.37u
All Time2233-1834-3854%
242.55u
Top Leagues
NFL1225-970-2055%
141.31u
MLB360-317-753%
42.52u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA174-137-455%
23.66u
NCAAF38-28-256%
5.17u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
Golf8-14-036%
0.77u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.