Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
Pending
R.Wilson u217.5 Pass Yds-114
NYG
@
DAL
0.57u
09/14 5:00 PM
I think there’s a realistic chance we see Jaxson Dart replace Wilson in-game as soon as this week. What’s “realistic”? Maybe 5%. Doesn’t sound too crazy, right? Even that slim chance gives sneaky value on the under, but I see other paths that help too.
If Wilson plays well and the Giants keep things close, they can run a more balanced, run-heavy approach than Week 1, when they trailed for 52 minutes (4th highest rate) in their 21-6 loss to Washington. Yes, they’re six-point underdogs, but that actually projects them to play with the lead 18% more often than their 2024 average. In that type of game script, Russ would naturally come in under.
The deeper issue is his profile in this offense. He attempted a 20+ yard pass on just 3% of throws in Week 1.. by far the lowest rate of his career, over 10% below his career average. That led to 5.7 air yards per attempt, also the lowest of his career. He’s throwing underneath at a career-high rate in Daboll’s scheme and scrambled on six dropbacks, another late-career high.
The line itself looks inflated. Wilson’s best-case path to piling up yards would be a big negative game script that forces New York to go ultra pass-heavy. But that’s also when Daboll might decide to give Dart his first look, especially in a lower-stakes spot like Dallas without Micah Parsons.
I project Russ closer to 207.5 yards, and with enough sneaky downside baked in, I give him about a 60% chance to stay under 217.5.
89
R.Odunze o45.5 Rec Yds-114
CHI
@
DET
0.57u
09/14 5:00 PM
I was high on Odunze entering the season, and he’s a clear buy-low WR heading into a potential Year 2 breakout in Ben Johnson’s scheme. He should also develop better chemistry with Caleb Williams, who is likely to improve in his own Year 2.
Week 1 was a mixed bag. Odunze operated as the clear No. 1 in this new offense, leading the team with a 23% target share. Still, he and Caleb missed on a couple of throws, including one play that was clearly designed for Odunze but never got the ball because Caleb didn’t trust the read. Part of the issue came against Minnesota’s zone-heavy defense, which muted some of Odunze’s upside.
Against man coverage, though, he showed exactly why I’m bullish. He ran only four man-coverage routes but drew three targets, and per FantasyPoints data, his 1.333 separation score ranked second-highest in Week 1. That lines up with his ability to consistently win vs. man.
The Lions play man at one of the highest rates in the league, and that continued in Week 1 even with a new defensive coordinator. This is the perfect spot to buy low on Odunze, and his yardage prop is the way I want to attack it. I project his median closer to 53.5 yards and give him about a 60% chance to clear 45.5.
135
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1-0-0 | 100% | 0.50u |
| Last 7 Days | 2-10-0 | 17% | -3.61u |
| Last 30 Days | 11-21-1 | 33% | -3.24u |
| All Time | 1864-1503-31 | 55% | 218.19u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1046-827-19 | 55% | 124.27u |
| MLB | 290-245-4 | 54% | 40.18u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-71-0 | 52% | -1.01u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
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