Sean Koerner

Sean Koerner

2497 Posts
Sean Koerner
2497 Posts
Role
Director of Predictive Analytics
Experience
20 years
Location
Los Angeles
Total Bets
4.3K
Followers
511.5K

Experience

Sean is one of the most decorated fantasy analysts in the industry, finishing first in the FantasyPros In-Season Accuracy standings in 2023 – which measures almost all fantasy football analysts on their in-season projections over the course of the season. You can read more about their methodology here. He also won the in-season ranking title in 2015, 2016 and 2017. This past season, he not only finished first overall, but was the No. 1 ranker out of 180+ entrants in running back, wide receiver and kicker rankings. He was top 10 in quarterbacks and tight ends, as well.

His 2023 performance was arguably the best in the contest’s history:

  • It was a record fourth No. 1 finish in the accuracy contest
  • He was the first expert in history to be No. 1 at multiple positions (RB + WR)
  • He was the expert to finish top 10 at every position

Sean started to become obsessed with sports betting & fantasy football ever since his father took him to Las Vegas for his annual fantasy football draft (at 8 years old). Sean started trying to project teams/players ever since and almost every action/decision he's made since has led him to where he is today. He began betting 20 years ago and began his sports betting/fantasy sports career as soon as he graduated from college in 2007. Prior to joining Action in 2018, he worked for MGM, RotoHog/FastPoint games, Bloomberg Sports, STATS.

Sean began his betting career in college by building sports betting models. He eventually turned into a bookie in college before moving to Vegas to work at Excalibur Sportsbook as a supervisor. He decided to move back to California to begin a career in fantasy sports/betting at RotoHog as a product manager. That was when he began entering his season-long fantasy projections into the FSTA contests and won the award for most accurate season-long NFL & MLB projections 2-3 times each.

He then moved to NY to work for Bloomberg Sports as a product manager and Head of Projections. They were eventually acquired by STATS where he maintained the same role as a product manager. That was when he began entering his weekly NFL rankings into the FantasyPros accuracy contest and won first place 3 years in a row from 2015-2017. He joined Action Network in 2018.

Education

Sean has a BA in Psychology from Long Beach State and took multiple advanced stats classes. He spent most of his time in the library reading stats/sports betting books, creating prediction models, and using them to bet on various sports (MLB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, etc.).

Specialties

  • NFL
  • College football
  • College basketball
  • Player projections
  • Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point 
More from Sean Koerner
PRO
Koerner's Week 1 Pick'em & Confidence Rankings Image
NFL

Koerner's Week 1 Pick'em & Confidence Rankings

Sean Koerner
Sep 12, 2026 UTC
PRO
Koerner's NFL QB Power Rankings Image
NFL

Koerner's NFL QB Power Rankings

Sean Koerner
Sep 12, 2026 UTC
Stuckey's NFC South Futures Bets ImageNFL

Stuckey's NFC South Futures Bets

Sean Koerner
Sep 4, 2026 UTC
NFL

Fantasy Wide Recievers to Draft, Avoid & Target as Sleepers in 2026!

Sean Koerner
Aug 20, 2026 UTC
NFL

9 Fantasy Players With the BIGGEST ADP Discrepancies: Yahoo vs. ESPN

Sean Koerner
Aug 17, 2026 UTC
NFL

Fantasy Tight Ends We LOVE, HATE & Think Are SLEEPERS for 2026!

Sean Koerner
Aug 13, 2026 UTC
NFL

These RB Handcuffs Could WIN You Your Fantasy League in 2026! | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Aug 10, 2026 UTC
NFL

The PERFECT First Round Draft Board for 2026 Fantasy Football! | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Aug 6, 2026 UTC
NFL

4 Rookie RBs & TEs You NEED to Draft in 2026! | Fantasy Flex Rookie Rankings | Part 2

Sean Koerner
Aug 3, 2026 UTC
NFL

9 Rookie Fantasy Players You NEED To Watch Out For! | Rookie Rankings | Part: 1

Sean Koerner
Jul 30, 2026 UTC
NFL

Is Brian Thomas Jr. OVERVALUED?! | Fantasy WR & TE Ranking Discrepancies | Part: 2

Sean Koerner
Jul 27, 2026 UTC
NFL

Who's Draft Board is WRONG About These Players?! | Fantasy QB & RB Ranking Discrepancies | Part: 1

Sean Koerner
Jul 24, 2026 UTC
Koerner's 32 NFL Props for 32 Teams ImageNFL

Koerner's 32 NFL Props for 32 Teams

Sean Koerner
Jul 21, 2026 UTC
NFL

Will These Coaching Changes WIN You Your Fantasy League?! | Fantasy Flex

Sean Koerner
Jul 20, 2026 UTC
1
...

Sean Koerner🔮's Picks

Today
Pending
The Toilet Bowl is one of the trickier games to cap this week, but this is the play I kept coming back to. It’s not really a math-driven bet as much as a “Week 1 has a ton of uncertainty and I think this spot benefits from it” type of play. Allen missed most of last season with an MCL injury, but he’s 100% healthy now and looked sharp in camp and limited preseason action. He reportedly got up to around 250 pounds in June while saying he had added muscle and was at the lowest body-fat percentage of his career. So he might be the closest thing we have to Derrick Henry, and his role is similar in that he’s primarily an early-down/short-yardage hammer. Breece Hall is still the clear lead back and should be healthy, but he missed a lot of camp with a groin injury, so there could be more spots than usual where the Jets give him a breather. The other thing I like is game script. The Jets are constantly playing from behind, which usually caps Allen’s workload, but this is one of the rare spots where the game is closer to a coin flip. I have the Jets projected to play with the lead at a whopping 21% higher rate than they did last season, which quietly gives Allen more paths to extra carries. Titans LB Cedric Gray is also out, which is a meaningful loss for their run defense. My cautious projection has Allen around 19 rushing yards with roughly a 55% chance to clear 17.5, but this is one of those Week 1 spots where I think the upside is higher than the raw projection suggests. That’s also why on prediction markets I’d rather attack Temu Derrick Henry’s 20+ rushing-yard market than settle for 15+.
136
27
I’ve considered Yoshi a sneaky ATD bet over the last couple of seasons, but he’s a player I’m looking to fade in Week 1 based on a few things that could be different this year. The Bengals should still be very pass heavy, but they are planning on being bit more balanced this year, especially if the defense improves (which I’m guessing it does). They may also use more TE-heavy personnel (which would eat Into his playing time) and take more snaps under center, which is especially interesting because Iosivas’ target rate absolutely cratered to just 5% on under-center snaps last year. The Bucs also tend to blitz at a high rate under Todd Bowles, and his target rate dropped to just 8% against the blitz. I was also really impressed with fourth-round rookie Colbie Young, who may not factor in right away but could become a threat to Iosivas’ role as the season goes on. I’m projecting this closer to 1.4 receptions with around a 59% chance to stay under 1.5. I wouldn’t fade his yardage since he tends to get downfield or end-zone targets, so receptions is the specific market I want to attack. It’s a wide range of outcomes on a low prop, but these are exactly the types of Week 1 spots I love, where digging into personnel changes, potential scheme shifts, camp/preseason and recent news can give us an edge before we just wait around for a week of data to tell us what changed.
142
30
Swift only cleared this number in 4 of 15 regular-season games with Kyle Monangai active last year. That makes sense given how their roles fit together. Swift is still the lead back and clear passing-down option, but Monangai carved out a real 10-11 carry role of his own, and that alone puts a pretty natural cap on Swift’s upside in this market. Both were dealing with injuries heading into Week 1, with Monangai missing a ton of time with a knee issue but now fully cleared, while Swift only missed a few practices with what were believed to be cramps. He should be 100%, but if that was even partially conditioning-related, I could see Chicago being a little more cautious with his workload out of the gate. The Bears are also taking a ton of action but remain stuck at -3, and I think Carolina can keep this game closer than people expect and bleed enough clock to limit Chicago’s total play volume. This also isn’t a bet against Swift’s rushing ability. I’m not interested in fading his yardage because he can absolutely rip off a couple long runs, but those don’t really hurt this under the way you’d think. A 40-yard run is still just one carry, and it may even lead to him checking out for a breather right after. The other sneaky angle is Ben Johnson. Spamming direct carries to one back all game really isn’t his style. The Bears averaged 1.5 designed WR carries per game last season, more than double the league average, and I’d expect that sort of stuff to continue with Luther Burden, Kalif Raymond and even Zavion Thomas all capable of stealing a couple touches. If you’ve ever had an over on a Ben Johnson lead back’s rush attempts, you know exactly how tilting those plays can be. I’m projecting Swift closer to 13.9 attempts with around a 59% chance to stay under 14.5. This is definitely game-script dependent, so if you think Chicago blows Carolina out, I’d stay away. I think Carolina keeps it close enough to lock this in.
97
17
Jones is coming off a season-ending Achilles tear, which obviously adds some risk when you’re betting him in Week 1, but I actually think the injury could create some sneaky value in this market. I’d expect him to be less willing to scramble than usual, and Steichen may lean more on quick-hitting throws underneath to get the ball out of his hands before pressure arrives while Jones works his way back. He cleared this in 50% of the games he finished last season, and that was with Indy playing in a bunch of blowouts where he either didn’t have to throw much or barely played in the fourth quarter. This could be one of the rarer spots where a Daniel Jones-led Colts team is actually playing from behind. The matchup also sets up well enough for volume. Baltimore struggled against the pass last season and will be installing a new scheme under Jesse Minter. Jones already saw that defense in Week 7 against the Chargers and went 23-of-34 for 288 yards and two TDs. If Alec Pierce is less than 100%, he could be used more as a downfield decoy while Josh Downs, Tyler Warren and newly acquired Keenan Allen soak up underneath targets. I’d put this closer to 22.5 completions with around a 60% chance he clears 21.5. There’s definitely a wider range of outcomes coming off the Achilles, but that uncertainty is also part of why I think this is a sneaky Week 1 angle.
90
11
Futures
Michael Wilson u749.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
0.55u
Kicking off a new preseason series: 32 Teams. 32 Bets. One season-long prop/bet for every NFL team, with a deeper look at how I’m projecting each offense/team. First up: Arizona Cardinals Read the FULL breakdown here before asking me “why don’t you like Michael Wilson??”: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/cardinals-2026-props-michael-wilson-marvin-harrison
55
25
Quinshon Judkins u924.5-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
0.55u
32 teams. 32 bets. Cleveland Browns edition. Full write-up: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/browns-2026-props-quinshon-judkins
65
27
Luther Burden+9000
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Receiving Yards
0.03u
105
24
Saquon Barkley o7.5+100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.5u
103
26
Saquon Barkley+3100
2026 NFL Regular Season - Most Rushing TDs
0.05u
84
23
Jalen Hurts u8.5-105
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing TDs
0.53u
64
22
Abdul Carter o5.75-110
2026 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
0.55u
56
20
Past Performance
Yesterday0-1-00%
-0.53u
Last 7 Days4-3-057%
0.42u
Last 30 Days8-7-053%
0.19u
All Time2311-1924-3954%
244.78u
Top Leagues
NFL1232-977-2055%
140.98u
MLB391-349-752%
45.58u
NCAAB313-254-355%
31.47u
WNBA211-176-554%
25.57u
NCAAF39-30-255%
4.60u
World Baseball Classic2-0-0100%
1.00u
UFL5-4-056%
0.60u
World Cup1-2-033%
-0.25u
Golf9-21-030%
-0.42u
NBA108-106-250%
-3.45u
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.