Sean Koerner's Picks
Today
Pending
J.Nailor u1.5 Recs-101
MIN
@
PIT
0.51u
09/28 1:30 PM
Jordan Addison returns from his three-game suspension, which should cut Nailor’s playing time. Adam Thielen is in the mix too, and I expect him to mix in more than Brandon Powell or Trent Sherfield did as last year’s WR4. That is a tough combo for a player who already draws a low target rate (13.4%) with a downfield aDOT (15.0) and an expected catch rate of just 47%.
Sometimes the OC gets cute and schemes one early. We saw it in Week 2 when they opened with a designed throw to Nailor in the flat for a two-yard gain. The fact they did that so recently makes it a bit less likely to happen again here, When he is on the field he will also be competing with Addison for targets (instead of Thielen), which does not help.
I project him at 1.3 receptions with about a 61% chance to stay under 1.5. His one catch could be an explosive one, so I am not interested in fading his yardage prop here.
214
T.McMillan o62.5 Rec Yds-114
CAR
@
NE
0.57u
09/28 5:00 PM
Nice buy-low on Tet after his career-worst 3/48/0 in a 30–0 game where Carolina barely needed to throw. As 5.5-point road dogs, they should be pushed into a more pass-heavy script. The Bryce–Tet chemistry keeps ticking up each week, and I expect that to continue as the season goes.
Christian Gonzalez should be back and could shadow. The two go way back to Arizona vs. Oregon. I actually waited for Gonzalez to be ruled in and the number dipped to 62.5, which I wanted. New England plays man at a high rate (7th most, likely higher with Gonzalez active) and Tet has crushed man, leading all qualified WRs at 5.88 YPRR vs man. Gonzalez may break up a couple, but Bryce has been more willing to give Tet chances, and they have just missed on a few big ones. He is also excellent after the catch for an X receiver.
I have this closer to 69.5 yards with about 58% to clear 62.5. Worth a small ladder sprinkle: 100+ yards at +351 (DK); I price that closer to +300.
111
T.McMillan 100+ Receiving Yards Yes+351
CAR
@NE
0.1u
09/28 5:00 PM
Proj closer to +300
47
L.McCaffrey o18.5 Rec Yds-114
WAS
@
ATL
0.57u
09/28 5:00 PM
Should see a big boost here in playing time and usage (along with Lane) with Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown OUT. They also lost Austin Ekeler for the season which opens up even more potential targets. It could be a rare trailing game script for Was and while Mariota isn’t nearly as good as Daniels as a passer, he scrambles at a lower rate which helps add more potential pass attempts. He has a wide range of outcomes here but I’m projecting his median closer to 24
158
F.Luvu u6.5 Tackles + Ast-110
WAS
@ATL
0.55u
09/28 5:00 PM
Luvu’s cleared this in 2 of 3 games with lines of 7, 2, 7, a 5.33 average, and that came against an easy opening schedule for LBs. His schedule-adjusted expected is 4.8 tackles per game. Luvu rushes the QB at a high rate, and he’s doing so at 2% higher this season. That’s great for sacks, but it pulls him out of off-ball tackle chances, which is why this prop usually comes down to whether he gets to the QB.
When Luvu does not record a sack, he stayed under 6.5 55% of the time last season. When he did record a sack, he cleared it 67% of the time. Michael Penix Jr. has quickly become one of the toughest QBs to sack, so Luvu’s upside takes a hit here. I’m projecting him around 5.7, with roughly 62% to stay under 6.5.
73
J.Ford u13.5 Rec Yds-113
CLE
@
DET
0.57u
09/28 5:00 PM
Quinshon Judkins has been the lead back since his Week 2 debut. Ford has held the 3rd-down/2-minute role, with rookie Dylan Sampson mixing in on occasion. I’m projecting Ford to keep that role for now, but there is a chance Sampson starts mixing in those situations a bit more going forward, which would only help this under.
Detroit plays man at the 8th-highest rate, and Ford’s yards per route run has cratered from 1.35 vs zone to 0.08 vs man. That tracks since he is more likely to see a linebacker spy him rather than sit uncovered for a checkdown. Justice Hill is the only opposing RB to clear 10+ receiving yards against them so far. The Lions also blitz at the 4th-highest rate; Ford’s YPRR dips there too, and he is more likely to stay in and block.
His floor is lower if Sampson nibbles at 3rd-down/2-minute snaps. I’m projecting Ford’s median closer to 11 yards with around 60% to stay under 13.5. If you only have access to 12.5, I would pivot to under 2.5 receptions at anything -120 or better.
91
C.Stroud u223.5 Pass Yds-114
TEN
@
HOU
0.57u
09/28 5:00 PM
Stroud has yet to clear this in three games, and that is despite the Texans playing with a lead at the 6th lowest rate so far. They are 7.5-point favorites at home against the Titans, so the odds of playing with a lead, even a two-score lead, go way up here. For an under like this, we actually want Stroud to be efficient early to grab that lead. Tennessee is blitzing and generating pressure at bottom-five rates, and in both scenarios he is pushing the ball downfield less. He is also scrambling much more this season, which lowers his passing upside.
The matchup projects to be a more run heavy one for Houston. The Titans rank 31st in rush defense DVOA, so this is a rare spot where Houston can and should get the ground game going and take a little off Stroud’s plate while leaning on the defense. On the other side, Cam Ward has been sacked a league-high 15 times, and with RT JC Latham out again, the Texans should rack up a handful more. Sacks and shorter fields are huge for this prop.
The rooting guide is simple: want Hou to get a quick lead, a short TD pass (or two) early is fine, then let the defense create sacks or turnovers, shorten the field, and let Houston run the ball with the lead. That is the game script I am projecting, which is why I have this closer to 211.5.
173
A.Kamara u14.5 Rush Att-125
NO
@
BUF
0.63u
09/28 5:00 PM
Last week was wild. The Saints lost 44–13, yet Kamara finished with 18 carries. The reason: a ridiculous first half where New Orleans ran 46 plays because Seattle kept scoring fast, including a punt-return TD that handed the ball right back. One drive was 16 plays with 5 Kamara carries, Kendre Miller got the next series and went three-and-out, then Kamara came back for another 10+ play drive with 4 more. They are averaging 68.7 plays per game, tied for the league lead. That kind of volume is due for regression.
Now they are +14.5 dogs at Buffalo in what should turn into more of a trailing (2+ scores) pass heavy game script. However, the Bills lead the league in time of possession, and with a 2+ score lead they go at a very slow pace..letting roughly 31 seconds tick between snaps, which suppresses their opponents play volume. I expect Buffalo to get out front, bleed clock, and push the Saints toward more Kamara checkdowns instead of piling up carries. There is also a real chance Kendre Miller eats a bit more early-down work as the season goes as they evaluate for 2026 and beyond; if his occassional series isn’t a 3 and out, that would eat into Kamara’s carry ceiling.
I have Kamara at 13.8 rush attempts with about 60% to stay under 14.5. This is about the number. Getting exposure to 14 is meaningful, roughly worth ~10%, while 13.5 would be a true coin flip.
100
Futures
Matthew Stafford o22.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Passing TDs
0.57u
Discussed this on The Favorites
70
Cooper Kupp u700.5-114
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Receiving Yards
1.14u
86
Javonte Williams u525.5-115
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Rushing Yards
1.15u
48
Jared Verse o7.5-135
2025 NFL Regular Season - Total Sacks
1.35u
49
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-0-0 | 0% | 0.00u |
| Last 7 Days | 11-5-0 | 69% | 3.61u |
| Last 30 Days | 26-31-0 | 46% | -1.14u |
| All Time | 1882-1519-31 | 55% | 219.34u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 1064-843-19 | 55% | 125.42u |
| MLB | 290-245-4 | 54% | 40.18u |
| NCAAB | 262-210-3 | 55% | 28.85u |
| WNBA | 147-118-3 | 55% | 19.47u |
| NCAAF | 36-23-2 | 59% | 6.62u |
| UFL | 5-4-0 | 56% | 0.60u |
| Golf | 0-3-0 | 0% | -0.60u |
| NBA | 78-71-0 | 52% | -1.01u |
On Social
Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
Patrick Mahomes under 30.5 rushing yards for Super Bowl LIV. He had 44 yards going into the final drive. Kneeled down 3 times for -15 yards to drop down to 29 yards and hit the under
Most Heartbreaking Bet
Max bet Jimmy Graham under 23.5 rec yards in the WC playoff game against NO in 2020. He had 6 yards heading into the final drive with the Bears down 3-21. On the final play of the game, Mitch Trubisky finds Graham in the back of the end zone for an insane one handed grab for a 19-yard garbage time TD. Graham finished with 25 yards and I'm still tilted by this. Side note: Stuckey was on this prop with me.
Specialties
- NFL
- College football
- College basketball
- Player projections
- Have created team/player projection models for essentially every sport at some point