It feels like it happens every season — a surprising NFL team goes from worst-to-first in its division.
Some poor forlorn team has the year from hell, finishes at the bottom of its division and earns a top draft pick. Analysts spend all offseason writing them off, and everyone avoids their guys in fantasy football.
The new season dawns with little hope. And then — four months later — that team somehow wins its division and hosts a playoff game.
Sound familiar? It certainly should.
In 19 of the past 22 NFL seasons (86%), at least one cellar dweller flipped the script and won its division the following season.
How about a quick review of the past decade?
In 2016, the Cowboys drafted Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and leapt from 4-12 to 13-3; the Eagles jumped from 7-9 to champs the following year. The Bears and Texans did it in 2018; Washington did it in 2019.
The 2021 Bengals went from the cellar to the Super Bowl, and we bet the Jaguars at +800 to go worst-to-first in 2022 right here in this column. Then, we doubled up with Texans Island in 2023, a long shot miracle run at +1100.
There was no worst-to-first division winner last year, so it doesn't quite happen every year. The Commanders and Chargers made the playoffs but didn't win their divisions, and Panthers Island took water and sunk almost immediately.
Still, ever since the NFL adopted its current division format in 2002, 29 last-place teams have won the division the following season, an average of 1.26 per year. It just keeps on happening, year after year.
Some books allow us to bet on whether any of the eight possibilities will go worst-to-first. History says anything shorter than -600 would technically be a good bet there. But we're greedy! We want big, long-shot winners.
Let's rank last season's bottom feeders from least to most bettable and find a new island best bet in 2025.
2025 NFL Worst-to-First Rankings
| Tier Number | Category |
|---|---|
| Tier 5 | No Way, No How |
| Tier 4 | Perhaps If You Squint, But I Can't Get There |
| Tier 3 | Maybe, But Only as a Direct Bet Against the Favorite |
| Tier 2 | Most Likely Doesn't Necessarily Mean Best Bet |
| Tier 1 | BEARS ISLAND[ |
Tier 5 — No Way, No How
8. Cleveland Browns +4000 (DraftKings)
When searching for an island, it's always a good idea to check out the full archipelago. Any worst-to-first pick is inherently a bet against three pre-selected division opponents — which can be good or bad news.
For the Browns, that's very bad news.
The AFC North is loaded, with three teams that finished over .500 a season ago and fancy themselves playoff contenders, including my best team in football this season, the Ravens.
The Browns don't have to beat just one of those teams — they'd have to top all three, each one arguably with a top-five offense or defense.
Cleveland has the talent on defense to surprise. Myles Garrett is DPOY-caliber, and Jim Schwartz's unit was among the best in the league in 2023.
But the offense looks disastrous, with five quarterbacks vying for a shot at playing time, mostly retread skill players, and a rapidly aging offensive line that's seen much better days.
Kevin Stefanski has pulled some shocks before, but the Browns open the season against the Bengals, Ravens, Packers, Lions and Vikings. Anything better than even 1-4 would be a shock.
More likely than not, the tank will be on.
Verdict: Quick and easy no. Don't want to bet on the Browns, nor against the rest of the division.
7. New York Giants +3000 (ESPN Bet, Caesars, bet365)
It's been two decades since we've seen a repeat division champion in the NFC East, so that's a good start for New York, but the Eagles are still the best team in the NFC until proven otherwise — and the Commanders and Cowboys look tough, too.
If the Giants make a push, their defensive line will almost certainly be at the center of it all.
Dexter Lawrence has played DPOY-level ball for a few years, and now he's got rookie Abdul Carter joining Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux as pass rushers for what could be one of the fiercest defensive fronts in football.
I've got the Giants ranked 12th amongst defenses. Could DC Shane Bowen push this unit even further, into the top five?
The offense will need healthy seasons from WR Malik Nabers and star LT Andrew Thomas, and maybe Nabers can put up a league-winning fantasy-type season.
Even that might still not be enough, especially with Russell Wilson, Jameis Winston or rookie Jaxson Dart helming the QB spot. The G-Men also have precious little star upside on offense, so this is likely the worst attack in the league the moment Nabers or Thomas gets hurt again.
If you're an optimist, the Giants could make some noise early. The first four games against the Commanders, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Chargers look rough, but all four have vulnerable, beatable offensive lines the Giants' D-line could wreak havoc on.
But even if they survive that initial stretch, New York still has to play the NFC North and AFC West this season, including a seven-week stretch that goes Eagles-Broncos-Eagles-49ers-Bears-Packers-Lions without a break.
RIP to your Giants bet.
Verdict: The defensive front is tempting, but the rest is not.
Tier 4 — Perhaps If You Squint, But I Can't Get There
6. New Orleans Saints +1600 (Caesars)
Note: The Panthers tied the Saints last fall but won the tiebreaker, so they don't technically qualify for this exercise.
It's a shame the Saints look so awful, because I'd sure love to bet against the NFC South.
I've got all four teams in the division ranked bottom 10 in the NFL heading into the season and didn't rank any offense or defense in this division better than 15th — and that was Tampa Bay's offense, which is currently dealing with injuries to stud LT Tristan Wirfs and a couple key receivers.
There's a real path to a disastrous Bucs start — something like 2-5 against a tough early schedule — and the Falcons and Panthers don't look set to blow anyone away.
Still, New Orleans grades out as my worst team in the NFL, by margin.
The Saints offense ranks dead last with no real strength, and Tyler Shough and Spencer Rattler comprise the worst QB room in the league.
The defense is old and faltering badly, and the new coaching staff was mostly leftovers after the other top candidates were hired.
The Saints have the softest schedule in the NFL by DVOA over the second half of the season, so if the division is awful, there could be a chance to invest later. But New Orleans plays six of its first seven games against a defense I ranked top 12, and that should bury them team early.
A team this bad should be something like +5000, and then New Orleans would be worth investing in, just on randomness alone.
But the division is so bad, we can't even get that.
Verdict: The NFC South is terrible, but so are the Saints and +1600 is nowhere near long enough to tempt.
5. Las Vegas Raiders +2200 (DraftKings)
We finally made it to a team I can make an actual positive case for.
Raiders fans have a lot of reason for optimism thanks to three huge floor-raising moves at QB, RB and coaching.
Las Vegas had my worst-ranked coaching staff in the league heading into last season. Pete Carroll is a winner and a terrific head coach; OC Chip Kelly brings innovation and upside.
Going from near worst in the league to above average is a massive leap, and the Raiders get that same jump at QB in Geno Smith and at RB in rookie Ashton Jeanty.
Even though the rest of the division made last season's playoffs, there are reasons to doubt each team.
The Chiefs offense hasn't been quite the same the last two seasons and has some holes on the offensive line and at receiver. The Chargers' O-line is troubling after the Rashawn Slater injury. The Broncos relied on top-five defense and their special teams units and still barely snuck in.
The Raiders probably don't need 15 wins to take the AFC West — but they're likely still the worst team in the division, even with all those floor-raising improvements.
You might notice I've neglected to mention the defense.
DC Patrick Graham is terrific, but he doesn't have much talent to work with after seeing Robert Spillane, Divine Deablo, Christian Wilkins, Jack Jones and Tre'von Moehrig go out the door this offseason. Maxx Crosby is a star but this looks like a bottom-two defense on paper by talent.
The Raiders should be much improved, but even then, it's tough to argue anything more than third-best offense or defense in the AFC West.
Verdict: I don't mind a nibble if you can play +2200 at DraftKings (with Vegas at literally half the odds elsewhere) — otherwise, find another way to invest in the Raiders improving.
Tier 3 — Maybe, But Only as a Direct Bet Against the Favorite
4. Tennessee Titans +800 (Caesars; bet365)
Like with the Saints, the Titans have my attention immediately because it's intriguing betting against the rest of the AFC South.
Neither the Colts nor the Jaguars look particularly special, and the Texans have elite defense and coaching but might have the worst offensive line in the league and couldn't put their attack together last fall. The Texans play six of their first eight games against teams that won 10+ games last year, so this division could stay live deep into the season.
There's plenty of reason to believe in Tennessee improving.
That hope should start up front on the offensive line, where elite line coach Bill Callahan could help this unit leap into the top 10 with the additions of Dan Moore Jr., Kevin Zeitler and a healthy Lloyd Cushenberry.
Second-year DC Dennard Wilson found great results with this defense in his debut, so that could portend well.
There may also be a gigantic swing on special teams, where Tennessee was historically awful last season with impossibly bad punting and terrible kick returners. The team brought in a new punter and kicker along with new returners, and it also hired ST coach John Fassel away from Dallas, where his special teams ranked top 10 by DVOA each year of the last half decade.
And then, of course, there's Cam Ward.
Ward has to be one of the underdiscussed No. 1 QB picks in recent memory, but he certainly represents an upgrade from Will Levis and may make fewer mistakes, even as a rookie.
Ward could be a good QB eventually, but recent history warns us against investing too early. Over the last decade, eight QBs drafted first overall averaged 3.4 wins their rookie season before leaping to 8.3 wins as sophomores — and not one of the rookies won more than six.
The division may not be good enough to separate, but even the improved Titans look worst in the division on both offense and defense and didn't get much from first-year coach Brian Callahan either — he disappointed weak after week en route to a worst-ever 2-15 ATS finish.
Even if you ignore all that and want some Titans stock, you should wait.
Ward starts his NFL career on the road in Denver, a nightmare matchup against a nasty attacking defense. The Titans play four of their first six on the road, with another one at Houston.
At +800, this number isn't long enough to warrant rushing in now. There will be opportunities to remember the Titans later if you want to fade Houston.
Verdict: +800 is too short to bother, and it's too soon to invest in Ward and this improving Titans roster.
3. New England Patriots +625 (Caesars)
With respect to the Dolphins and Jets, a Patriots division bet feels mostly like a head-to-head play against the Bills.
That's both good and bad.
It's good that there probably aren't multiple teams in the way, but it's bad that the one has 13, 11, 13, 11 and 13 wins the last five seasons.
Buffalo also has Josh Allen, and Allen alone has basically guaranteed the Bills a top-three offense in recent years. For the Patriots to win the division, they'll probably either need to beat Allen twice or luck into an injury.
Still, there's plenty of reason to want to invest in New England.
The Patriots remind me of last year's Commanders.
New England had a ton of cap room and spent it on a barrage of floor-raising talent around the roster, just like Washington did. The Patriots also brought in a culture-changing coach in Mike Vrabel and a retread offensive playcaller with upside in Josh McDaniels. And they have a very talented young QB in Drake Maye who could spark the whole thing.
The floor-raising talent is immense.
Carlton Davis combines with Christian Gonzalez to give the Patriots a top-five corner duo; Milton Williams pairs with a now-healthy Christian Barmore to form a stout pair on the interior. Robert Spillane and Harold Landry add further talent to a defense I ranked in my top 10.
The Patriots also added a lot to Maye's offense, mostly in the draft.
They'll start two rookies on the left side of the line — by choice! — along with newly-signed veterans Garrett Bradbury and Morgan Moses. New England added RB TreVeyon Henderson and WR Kyle Williams with early draft picks, along with a healthy Stefon Diggs in free agency.
This is still an offensive line in progress, and there aren't many great skill-position options. New England was among the worst in the league in both areas before this offseason, so improvement still leaves the Patriots average at best there.
If you want to invest in New England, it's probably now or never.
The Patriots have a soft first-half schedule and could start 4-0 with games against the Raiders, Dolphins, Steelers and Panthers. Though Buffalo has a pretty soft early schedule itself but opens Week 1 against the Ravens.
Verdict: I really want to get there with the Patriots and will likely look for some way to invest, but even last year's Commanders didn't win their division and I'm not ready to bet against Josh Allen.
Tier 2 — Most Likely Doesn't Necessarily Mean Best Bet
2. San Francisco 49ers +165 (BetMGM)
It probably won't be difficult to convince you to imagine a 49ers division win, but that's because San Francisco is already the favorite.
The 49ers went 6-11 last season amidst a barrage of injuries, but even then, San Francisco finished above average both offensively and defensively and was probably more like an eight-win team.
San Francisco lost multiple games to injury to Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Nick Bosa, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Javon Hargrave, Dre Greenlaw, Charvarius Ward and Talanoa Hufanga. In fact, the 49ers lost 83 games combined to that crew of Super Bowl-caliber players.
McCaffrey and Williams look healthy again, and though the 49ers said goodbye to the final four names on that list, the defense won't lose that much because it never had those guys last year anyway.
San Francisco is already sorting through injuries at receiver and on the line, but a healthy version of this team might still be the most talented team in the NFC, especially under Kyle Shanahan, who has coached in five of the last nine NFC Championships.
The 49ers should get a serious boost defensively with the return of DC Robert Saleh, who should put this unit back in order. They could see a big leap on special teams with a new punter and ST coach after having the 31st-ranked unit by DVOA last fall.
San Francisco has one of the softest schedules in the league by any measure — four games each against the mediocre NFC South and AFC South, and easy September games against the Saints and Jaguars.
Week 1 could be a tough test in Seattle though, with Klint Kubiak's improved rushing attack testing this poor run defense right away.
I'm already in on the 49ers — they were my first Super Bowl bet way back in February — so it only seems natural to bet the division.
But just because San Francisco is the most likely worst-to-first winner on the board doesn't mean the 49ers are the best bet.
This isn't the way or the time to invest in the Niners. A road division loss Week 1 would be an immediate hole and serious value lost on a +165 ticket, and if you do believe in the 49ers, you should bet them much more aggressively than just a division win.
A healthy San Francisco team doesn't just win its division — it threatens the Super Bowl once again.
Verdict: The 49ers are the right division favorite but not the right bet. Invest more aggressively if you believe, but a +165 division ticket with the team banged-up in August is not the way to go.
Tier 1 — BEARS ISLAND[
1. Chicago Bears +550 (FanDuel; BetMGM)
Was there ever really any doubt I'd be in on the Bears this season?
I've long said my two biggest edges on the market are coaching and offensive lines — Chicago invested in massive positive swings in both areas.
The Bears completely remade the interior of their offensive line, adding stud G Joe Thuney along with top-five C Drew Dalman and veteran G Jonah Jackson, turning what was a serious problem into a possible top-five line.
Chicago also snagged the biggest name in the coaching cycle in Ben Johnson, a top-three offensive playcaller who brought a cadre of talented coaches with him, including veteran DC Dennis Allen, who is one of the league's best defensive playcallers.
The Bears should improve from bottom 10 to top five on the offensive line and from bottom five to top five on playcalling coaches. That is a massive swing, and that's before you factor in the way that stability will raise the tide for everyone else on the team.
Caleb Williams had a disappointing rookie season but he should be far more confident with blocking and playcalling that sets him up to succeed. Johnson will know how to utilize weapons like Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, and rookies TE Colston Loveland and WR Luther Burden.
It's no surprise Williams struggled last fall. He got zero help from his blockers or coaching, and No. 1 overall QBs over the past decade average just 3.4 wins their rookie season. But those same quarterbacks average almost five more wins (8.3) the following season, a 144% increase, with five of the seven getting to at least eight wins.
In fact, Williams' five wins were actually one of the best No. 1 QB rookie seasons of the last decade, and a 144% increase would set the Bears up for 12 wins and put them right in the thick of the division race.
Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow and Jared Goff combined to win five games as No. 1-pick rookies — each won their respective divisions the following season.
Why not Williams?
Johnson acts as a force multiplier for Williams and this offense. Johnson will help the line and playmakers, which in turn will help Williams play better … which will then make the line and playmakers better, and so on.
This could be a top-10 offense right now. The Lions leapt from 29th in Offensive DVOA to fifth in Johnson's first season calling plays on the back of a great line play, a rookie tight end breakout, improved playmaking, and a confident, tamed QB.
Why not Chicago?
The Bears invested in the trenches defensively, adding veteran Grady Jarrett and second-rounder Shemar Turner up front. They already invested heavily on their defensive front and feature star CB Jaylon Johnson in the secondary.
Allen's defenses ranked top quarter of the league in eight of the last 10 seasons, and the Bears have plenty of talent on that side of the ball, too.
Again, why not Chicago?
Believe it or not, the Bears are one of only five teams in the NFL to end up in the top 10 of my rankings on both offense and defense.
This could be a top-10 NFL team right now.
One reason not to bet the Bears is their brutal schedule.
It's the Vikings and Lions right out of the gates and it doesn't get much easier from there. The Bears have to play the entire AFC North and NFC East this season.
That doesn't sound great, but remember, everyone else in the division has effectively that same schedule. Each division team plays 14 of its 17 games against the same set of opponents, and Chicago's three variable games come against the Saints, Raiders, and 49ers.
Tough break "lucking" into a San Francisco road trip, but those other two games are gifts; Detroit's variable games are against the Bucs, Rams and Chiefs.
As for that tough opening schedule, look again.
The Vikings debut QB J.J. McCarthy on the road on Monday Night Football, and they're also debuting three new interior offensive linemen. So, too, for the Lions the following week with three new IL, plus early injuries to the defensive line, and new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
Week 3 against the Cowboys also features early injuries and offensive line changeover plus new coordinators.
Not all games on a schedule are created equal, and Chicago lucks into good timing on these early games. Survive those, win against the Raiders, Commanders and Saints, and this team will be confident early and cooking.
You could even argue that the difficult schedule the whole NFC North faces is precisely why betting the division is the best way to invest in Chicago — a way to even the playing field.
The NFC North is tough, probably the best in football. I have all four offenses and defenses ranked in the top half of the league.
But that includes Chicago, too, and those tough division opponents will cannibalize each other and leave this division up for anyone to grab it.
So why not Chicago?
Verdict: All aboard, Bears Island. Next stop: the playoffs!
