The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) and Baltimore Ravens (8-8) wrap up the NFL regular season with a battle for the AFC North crown on Sunday Night Football. Kickoff from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pa., is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. SNF will broadcast on NBC and Peacock.
Ravens vs Steelers odds list the Ravens as -200 favorites on the moneyline and Steelers as +165 underdogs. The over/under is 41.5 points. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on the spread (Ravens -3.5; -115).
Below, you can find Ravens vs Steelers picks and Sunday Night Football best bets, which include predictions for the spread, total, props for Kenneth Gainwell and Pat Freiermuth, and futures for the NFL playoffs.
Ravens vs Steelers Picks & Props
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ravens vs Steelers Odds
| Ravens Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
Sunday Night Football odds via bet365
Ravens vs Steelers Against the Spread Prediction
DK Metcalf’s absence will be felt, but this line has become too inflated and Pittsburgh is the clear value side.
Aaron Rodgers is playing his best football of the season, which makes it even more unfortunate for the Steelers that they will be without their top playmaker. However, Mike Tomlin has thrived in spots just like this, where the matchup may not reveal pregame just how the Steelers win as underdogs, but his track record is undeniable.
Taking the points in this rivalry has been incredibly profitable over the last two decades. These two coaches know each other very well and it is reflected in how often the team lined as the underdog overcomes perceived disadvantages.
Whenever this game has been priced with one team more than a field goal underdog, simply taking the points would have netted you a 82.7% cover rate.
Historically, Lamar Jackson has struggled against the Steelers and we truly do not know how healthy he is. Jackson seemed to be turning the corner and getting healthier before a back injury forced him to leave the game against New England and miss a must-win game in Green Bay.
I am skeptical we are suddenly going to see vintage, MVP-level Jackson in what already is a tough road assignment.
Pick: Steelers +3.5 (-105)
Ravens vs Steelers Spread Pick
By Nick Martin
Despite enduring tumultuous seasons, one of these AFC North rivals will still manage to secure the division title in an exciting game 272 of the NFL season.
John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have coached against each other 39 times, but this will be the first time their respective teams play in a winner-take-all matchup in the final week of the regular season.
The Steelers managed to secure a 27-22 win in Week 14, which put them in the driver's seat to win the division prior to an ugly loss in Cleveland last week. In the previous matchup, the Ravens ran man coverage on 35.3% of plays in the game, and Aaron Rodgers held an EPA of 0.58 per play on passing downs versus man in that game, led by a strong performance from DK Metcalf.
With Metcalf serving the second of a two-game suspension, the Steelers could struggle to expose the Ravens, which should help a Ravens defense that ranks 13th in per-play EPA keep the Steelers in check.
The Ravens have unleashed Derrick Henry in recent weeks, including a 216-yard performance last week despite opposing a stacked box on 44 percent of his rushing attempts. They will obviously try to lean heavily upon Henry in this spot, but Derrick Harmon's addition could help the Steelers fare respectably versus Henry, as the Steelers have allowed 3.5 yards per carry with Harmon on the field and 4.6 yards per carry when he is out this season.
It has also been confirmed that T.J. Watt will return for this matchup, having missed the last three games after suffering a partially collapsed lung.
Though the Steelers rank below average in defensive DVOA this season, this seems like a natural spot for Tomlin's side to elevate their game defensively in a do-or-die spot versus a division rival. Lamar Jackson has struggled versus Tomlin and the Steelers historically, playing to a record of just 3-5.
Jackson will have the opportunity to quiet the noise in what is essentially a playoff matchup after an unconvincing regular season, where he has been drastically less effective than usual due to a myriad of ailments dating back to Week 4. All the noise from Jackson, the Ravens organization and the players suggests their franchise QB is feeling great ahead of this matchup, but it's still certainly a reach to expect he will for sure look like a former two-time NFL MVP.
Eight of the last 11 matchups between Harbaugh's Ravens and Tomlin's Steelers have gone under the total, and we should see a fairly low-event, closely contested matchup.
There seems to be a solid case for each side and a spread of +3.5 seems relatively fair, but the angle that appears enticing to me is backing this game to be decided by six points or less at +125 (bet365), as it does not seem like a logical spot for either team to garner much separation.
Pick: Game Decided By 6 Points Or Less (+125)
Ravens vs Steelers Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
Without DK Metcalf, the Steelers offense managed just six points in a loss to the Browns, where they seemed more concerned with not letting Myles Garrett break the all time sacks record than they did winning the game.
While Baltimore is a more beatable defense through the air, Pittsburgh remains incredibly thin at wide receiver. The Steelers' top options are Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Adam Thielen, which sounds like two players you were debating dropping from your season-long team in 2021.
The Ravens defense is much better against the run, with a top-10 DVOA. Since all Pittsburgh can do without Metcalf is run the ball, it’s hard to see where the offense comes from.
On the other side, The Steelers are a top-10 overall defense with a solid defensive line that held Derrick Henry under four yards per carry in their previous meeting. With how much Lamar Jackson and the passing game has struggled, that’s enough to limit the output from Baltimore as well.
I expect this one to be a slow-paced slog, so I’ll take the under, even with it dropping a few points during the week to 40.5.
Pick: Under 40.5 (-105)
Kenneth Gainwell Props: Receiving Yards
By Brit Devine
Without DK Metcalf, the Steelers are going to utilize a quick passing attack with Aaron Rodgers, which should benefit Kenneth Gainwell tremendously.
Last week, Gainwell was used to help out on Myles Garrett to slow the pass rush of the Browns, and with no big threat to help pass protect on against the Ravens, he should bounce right back into a big role in the passing game.
Since Week 10, the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to RBs, and they allowed Steelers RBs to gain 76 yards on 10 targets a few weeks ago.
Gainwell could very well be the best option in the passing game for the Steelers with Metcalf and Darnell Washington sidelined.
Pick: Kenneth Gainwell Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Steelers Anytime TD Pick: Pat Freiermuth
By Sean Koerner
Darnell Washington's injury had a direct impact on Pat Freiermuth, who had a huge boost in playing time last week with a 77% routes run rate. Freiermuth ended up with three receptions (on five targets) for 63 yards against the Browns.
Entering tonight's game, Freiermuth should stay heavily involved in the gameplan considering DK Metcalf is still serving a suspension. Freiermuth's target share could increase as well as he's essentially operating as a wide receiver given the Steelers don't have many great pass-catching options.
Freiermuth will be leaned on heavily, especially in the red zone.
Pick: Pat Freiermuth Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+310)
Ravens, Steelers Futures: Stage of Elimination
One of these teams will win the AFC North and host a playoff game next week, whether we like it or not.
That will likely come against the Texans, who clinch at least the 5-seed with a win on Sunday, and that shapes up as a very low-scoring game, probably one with a total well below 40 and a game that comes down to a couple plays or a final kick.
Houston is better than both Baltimore and Pittsburgh, but those are tough road environments and games that would be priced around a coin flip, and a lot of trends will push to back the home underdog in the Wild Card Round in what would look like a pretty coin-flippy game.
One of these teams has to make the playoffs, and whoever does will be live to beat the Texans.
If they do, they'll likely hit the road to play in Jacksonville or New England the following week — and that's a totally different task, playing on the road with run-heavy attacks against great run defenses.
I'm playing two futures angles together to the same end, listed under "stage of elimination" at many books: Baltimore to lose in the Divisional Round at +460 and Pittsburgh to lose in the Divisional Round at +750, both at FanDuel.
One of those bets dies Sunday night. The other team needs to win next week, but if they do, that's suddenly a +460 or +750 moneyline on the Patriots or Jaguars as big home favorites! We're going to want that ticket.
Picks: Ravens to Lose in Divisional Round (+460); Steelers to Lose in Divisional Round (+750)
