We're continuing to dig through awards bets for the 2025 NFL season, and today we'll consider Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Everyone loves an exciting rookie story, rising from the college ranks and making an immediate impact in the pros. All the better when it's a franchise-changing player like last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) Jayden Daniels, our winning pick at +600.
Last year's NFL Draft was the year of the quarterback, with six QBs taken in the top 12. This year saw just two first-round QBs after the shocking drop of Shedeur Sanders all the way to the fifth round.
Quarterbacks typically dominate NFL Rookie of the Year, so the lack of QBs at the top could make for an entertaining and potentially wide-open OROY race.
Let's build a historical OROY winner profile then dive into all the names to consider and make a few picks.
Read about all of the other 2025 NFL awards:
- Defensive Rookie of the Year
- Defensive Player of the Year
- Comeback Player of the Year
- Coach of the Year
- Assistant Coach of the Year
- Protector of the Year
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Predictions
Who Wins Offensive Rookie of the Year?
1. Big favorites don't tend to win.
Jayden Daniels was our winning pick last fall, the second favorite on the board — but he was an exception.
Daniels was only the third OROY in the last decade to start the season shorter than +800. Oddly enough, history says this isn't typically an award big favorites tend to win. Even Daniels wasn't the favorite — No. 1 pick Caleb Williams was priced around +125 to start the season.
That should be an immediate warning sign to a pair of effectively co-favorites at the top of the board. No. 1 pick Cam Ward sits even or just behind Ashton Jeanty in the odds, with both around +300 at most books.
Jeanty is considered such a lock for immediate production that he's already a first-round pick in every fantasy football draft, before he's even played an actual NFL snap. It's reminiscent of Bijan Robinson a couple years ago; he entered the season as a clear betting favorite around +250 at most books but never really contended for OROY and finished outside the top 10 fantasy RBs.
Favorites can win, but they usually don't.
2. Almost any position can win, but QBs tend to be the best bet.
Five of the last nine OROYs were quarterbacks. Go back further and it's 8-of-14 and 11-of-21. The math is pretty consistent — just over a 50/50 chance the OROY will be a quarterback any given season.
You had to figure that was even more true in last year's draft with six QBs among the first 12 picks, but this year's draft was quite different. Ward went first overall, but Jaxson Dart was the only other quarterback taken in the first round, and not until pretty late, as Shedeur Sanders fell out of Day 1, then Day 2, altogether.
This used to be a running back award. Historically, 61% of OROYs played the position. Running backs won five of the first eight OROYs at the start of the century, but have only taken 4-of-17 since.
We've had seven wide receiver winners in the last three decades — about one every four or five years — but some noticeable misses, too.
Justin Jefferson had 1,400 yards as a rookie and didn't win, and two years ago, Puka Nacua came from out of nowhere to post a historic rookie season (105 catches for 1,486 yards). He got two of the 50 first-place votes for OROY as C.J. Stroud cruised to victory. Last fall, Brock Bowers broke rookie tight end records, but Daniels won the award easily.
No tight end or offensive lineman has ever won Offensive Rookie of the Year.
3. Draft slot is incredibly predictive — we almost certainly need a first-round pick.
Over the last two decades, a remarkable 17 OROY winners (85%) were drafted in the first round.
It gets better! Sixteen of the 20 were top-12 picks, and 12 were taken in the top eight, with still nearly half in just the top three picks.
That's an 80% shot at finding the OROY in the first 12 picks and almost 50/50 in just the top three.
Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud were both drafted second overall. Garrett Wilson and Ja'Marr Chase were top 10. Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray and Saquan Barkley went sixth, first, and second, respectively. Turns out teams are pretty good at drafting star talent!
Of course, it helps that these guys were joining bad teams with a clear path to playing time.
This year, we saw nine offensive players taken among the first 12 picks, though four were offensive linemen. Cam Ward went No. 1 overall and Heisman winner and multi-positional talent Travis Hunter went second.
Ashton Jeanty (6), Tet McMillan (8) and Colston Loveland (10) rounded out the group, with all but Loveland in that group priced at +1600 or shorter at every book, among the obvious favorites.
It's worth noting that running back is the one position that sometimes strays from the first-round trend.
Alvin Kamara (No. 67) and Eddie Lacy (61) won from outside the first round in the last 12 years, and Clinton Portis (51), Anthony Thomas (38) and Mike Anderson (189) won earlier this century. The only non-RBs to win from outside the first round in the last 30 years were Dak Prescott and Anquan Boldin.
4. Voters care more about big stats than winning.
Winning doesn't seem to be a huge focus for OROY. Over the last 15 years, only five winners have been on teams that won at least 10 games. In fact, eight of them — over half — played for a team that finished below .500.
Of course, winning never hurts.
Any quarterback leading a team to the playoffs will always have a case, as evidenced by Jayden Daniels and C.J. Stroud winning over historical statistical seasons from Brock Bowers and Puka Nacua. But Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Cam Newton and Sam Bradford won OROY with bad records.
This isn't a winner's award — it's about the numbers, and you need a lot.
Over the last decade, a typical OROY RB needs at least 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs. A winning receiver likely needs around 80 catches, 1,300 yards and 10 scores to even have a shot.
Quarterbacks are tougher because of varying rushing stats, but a typical QB winner has averaged around 4,000 combined yards and 27-35 touchdowns, often adding frequent ground production, and always ending up as a top-10 fantasy quarterback.
So what are we looking for in an OROY?
We want a first-round draft pick, preferably a top-12 pick.
Any position will do, but QB is typically best. And stats matter much more than winning, but a winning QB, like usual, tends to trump everything else.
Alright, we've got a slew of names to consider in a deep offensive class. Let's look at them in bunches, starting at the top with the favorites and whittling the field down to my best bets as we build an OROY position.
Bet One of the Two Favorites?
RB Ashton Jeanty, Raiders +300
QB Cam Ward, Titans +350
Jeanty certainly looks like a future star.
The guy rushed for over 2,600 yards last year alone at Boise State with 29 touchdowns, and he had 43 receptions for 569 yards the season before that so he can catch passes, too.
Jeanty was a walking highlight and should step into a bell-cow role right away for the Raiders. We don't know exactly what new OC Chip Kelly's offense will look like, but you have to figure it will feature the creative, attacking run game he just won a national championship with at Ohio State, and Pete Carroll has certainly had plenty of RBs put up big stats.
The rest of the Las Vegas roster should give some pause. The offensive line rates below average and is probably better at pass blocking, so life won't come easy for Jeanty. The defense also looks terrible, which could put the Raiders in a ton of negative game scripts and make scoring opportunities harder to come by.
Still, we need 1,300 scrimmage yards and 10 TDs and Jeanty certainly has the potential to reach or crush those numbers in this role.
I make Jeanty the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year — but I can't get any higher than 20%. That would be +400 and the best ticket on the market right now is +300 (Caesars). Between that and the fact that favorites just don't win this award, Jeanty is a no bet for me.
Cam Ward threw for 4,300 yards and 39 scores last year on almost 10 yards per attempt, leading the nation in that stat, TDs, and any number of other passing metrics. Now he's the Day One starter in Tennessee, and we know quarterbacks win OROY often, and so do the guys at the very top of the draft.
Ward isn't stepping into the greatest situation, though.
Tennessee's offensive line has improved after a ton of investment but still needs time just to approach above average, and Ward has among the worst skill-position groups in the league with Calvin Ridley and not much else to throw to.
The Titans should improve, but it would be a stretch to expect nine wins or a division title — especially since that would be a better outcome by three wins than any other No. 1 overall QB taken in the last decade. That's not a death knell for Ward's hopes, but it's a path to victory he likely can't take.
I'm not sure Ward can achieve the numbers he needs to play like a top-10 fantasy QB either. He's not much of a runner, and Titans QBs had only 3,300 yards and 22 TDs last season with 21 interceptions.
Quarterbacks and high draft picks win this award, but Ward has a tepid case. I can't get to better than 10-to-15% likely, and that's about half his implied likelihood at +350.
Remember, favorites usually don't win Offensive Rookie of the Year. So we're not betting them.
What about the other three guys that were drafted in the top 12?
The Other Top-12 Draft Picks
WR Travis Hunter, Jaguars +1200
WR Tet McMillan, Panthers +1600
TE Colston Loveland, Bears +5000
We know 80% of all OROYs over the last two decades were taken in the top 12 draft picks. If it's not Jeanty or Ward — or the first ever offensive lineman winner — that leaves this trio.
It's pretty easy to rule Loveland out.
I really like Loveland, and we saw Sam LaPorta have a monster season as a rookie tight end for Ben Johnson. But LaPorta had 86 catches for 10 scores and nearly 900 yards his final season in college, compared to just 56/582/5 for Loveland, and even that huge LaPorta season still finished just third in OROY voting.
Brock Bowers broke rookie TE records last season and he didn't win either. Even if Loveland has a great season, it'll be tough for voters to give him the award when Bowers fell short a year ago.
McMillan is coming off two excellent years at around 90/1400/9 in college, and he steps into a clear WR1 role in Carolina — especially with Adam Thielen out the door. The Panthers don't have a ton of other options now, other than sophomores Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker.
A bet on McMillan is a bet on Bryce Young and Dave Canales. How far do you think Canales can get his young QB?
His last year leading Tampa's offense, Canales saw both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin around 80 catches for 1,000+ yards, and Evans had 13 TDs. But Carolina's leading receiver last fall put up a meager 48/615/5.
McMillan would probably need to double that to hit the numbers he'd need for this award. I don't need to invest in a Panthers receiver.
Travis Hunter could be the one, though.
Hunter was an absolute phenom at Colorado, leading the nation with 96 catches for 15 TDs and adding a slew of defensive highlights en route to a two-way Heisman landslide. He comes to the NFL with plenty of buzz and hype — but also some preseason injuries that have left his role uncertain.
It's impossible to know right now, but my best read of the tea leaves is that Jacksonville is mostly being cautious with Hunter's injury and maybe even a bit coy so that opponents are uncertain how Hunter will be deployed. Most analysts seem to expect Hunter to play around 80% of his snaps offensively, so I'll trust the crowd and count Hunter as a WR.
Receivers appear to be incredibly valuable in a Liam Coen offense. Evans posted 74/1,004/11 in 14 games for Coen last season, and Godwin was on pace for a monster 120/1,400/12 season in seven games before a gruesome injury.
There's reason to believe Hunter, not Brian Thomas Jr., will step into that power slot role Godwin occupied, especially considering his elite Reception Perception route tree.
I'm not worried about Thomas either — Jacksonville has 153 receptions missing from the departed Evan Engram, Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis last season, and an improved Trevor Lawrence should be able to feed both receivers.
That could put Hunter in line for a huge statistical season — but what do we do with the other side of the field?
I'm of the belief that Hunter will be a part-time defender, especially after missing much of training camp with that injury. And maybe, rather than those snaps taking away from Hunter's offensive upside, we're thinking about it all wrong — I think any defensive snaps and the occasional highlight play or kick return could just act as extra credit for Hunter's OROY case.
A little icing on the cake, like a great QB that also rushes a bit.
I think the positional uncertainty and injury questions are buying us value.
Hunter is my top OROY pick on the board at +1200 (ESPN Bet).
What about the names outside the top-12 picks?
Stay Away from Deep Non-RB Sleepers
QB Tyler Shough, Saints
QB Dillon Gabriel, Browns
WR Jayden Higgins, Texans
WR Luther Burden, Bears
WR Tre Harris, Chargers
WR Jack Bech, Raiders
WR Pat Bryant, Broncos
WR Tory Horton, Seahawks
WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Chargers
TE Mason Taylor, Jets
TE Terrance Ferguson, Rams
TE Elijah Arroyo, Seahawks
We're dismissing this entire crew with the wave of a hand.
Hot sleeper or not, these guys were all drafted outside of the first round, and there's just very little historical precedent for players taken that late to win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Shough and Gabriel could get the QB boost but likely play for the two worst teams in the league so they won't exactly be winning. Some of those WRs are everyone's favorite fantasy sleepers, but they can produce decent fantasy numbers and still never sniff the OROY race.
There's just too much history against investing in any of these names outside the first round.
What about the other few options in it?
First Round Non-RB Options
WR Emeka Egbuka, Bucs +1800
WR Matthew Golden, Packers +2500
TE Tyler Warren, Colts +2500
QB Jaxson Dart, Giants +2500
Now we're getting to some of the super tempting sleeper options.
Egbuka's stock is on the rise with Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan out indefinitely with injuries, leaving the rookie and Mike Evans as Baker Mayfield's go-to receivers. Egbuka had 10 scores and 1,000 yards last season and he could be in a bigger role than expected out of the gates.
But don't expect Egbuka to step into the Godwin role. They're different players stylistically, and Egbuka is probably more of the long-term Evans replacement if anything. You're also buying high on Egbuka with his stock at an all-time peak — and you're buying a player whose stock can really only go down once Godwin and McMillan return.
Golden's stock slipped earlier this August to around +3000, but he's catching post-hype buzz.
Golden didn't hit 60 catches or 1,000 yards last season at Texas, and he failed to hit 1,000 yards in two seasons combined at Houston. It's a far cry from numbers like that to the 1,300/10 we'd probably need for OROY, especially in a crowded receiving room featuring Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Christian Watson and Savion Williams.
We've yet to see a big WR stat line under Jordan Love. Golden would probably need a late push to get there, so he might be a name to watch later this season.
Warren had a monster 104/1,233/8 line at Penn State last season. He could be in line for plenty of Daniel Jones dump-offs, but Anthony Richardson will play at some point, and I'm just not looking to invest in a tight end with none ever winning this award.
Dart is an easy no-bet right now since he's not even playing. Twelve of the last 14 OROYs played at least 15 games, and only one QB since 2010 got votes playing single-digit games.
You can't ignore a QB in the New York hype machine, but unless Dart gets onto the field quickly, he's probably drawing dead. If you want a Dart position, you should still wait until he plays since his number can really only grow longer.
The Sleeper Running Backs
RB Omarion Hampton, Chargers +1000
RB TreVeyon Henderson, Patriots +1400
RB RJ Harvey, Broncos +3000
RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Commanders +3500
RB Kaleb Johnson, Steelers +5500
Only Hampton was selected in the first round from this group, but remember that RB is the one position that has frequently won OROY from outside the first round, five times already this century (20%!).
That makes RB the right place to look for sleepers — and I'm betting three of these five.
Hampton is hardly a sleeper anymore.
Hampton was picked 22nd after 1,500+ rushing yards in each of his past two seasons at UNC and 15 rush TDs in each. His role remains to be seen in L.A. with Najee Harris injured and OC Greg Roman typically preferring to rotate multiple backs and split carries, but we know Roman wants the Chargers to run.
The Rashawn Slater injury looms large though, dropping the Chargers from top 10 to bottom 10 in my offensive line ranks and making everything more difficult for this offense. Roman's RBs have also ranked outside the top 20 in targets in nine of his last 10 seasons, so Hampton probably won't get much of a receiving boost.
The leading Chargers runner last season, J.K. Dobbins, had 195/905/9 on the ground, splitting carries with Gus Edwards. That's not good enough. Hampton makes sense and could be in for a big season, but his upside is already baked in at +1000, third favorite on the board.
Preseason buzz has also pushed TreVeyon Henderson's price through the roof, completely robbing him of any value.
Henderson is a speedster and should be a two-way threat for Josh McDaniels but could end up in more of the Kevin Faulk gadget role, which means bonuses for receiving and kick returns but likely not enough carries, especially with Rhamondre Stevenson in tow. This is just way too short of a price for a second-round RB in a McDaniels committee.
RJ Harvey is the far more interesting second-round RB, and I don't understand why he's still priced so low, especially now that he tops Denver's depth chart at the reliable Ourlads.
The Broncos want to run to protect Bo Nix, and Denver has the consensus second-best offensive line in the league. And though Javonte Williams stunk last season, he did get 217 carries.
Sean Payton's system has been great for RBs, with his team finishing top seven in rushing TDs over half his seasons as a head coach and a long history of using his backs in the passing game. Alvin Kamara won OROY under Payton, and Harvey has flashed versatility as a receiver in the preseason, and he ran for 1,400+ yards and 16+ TDs each of his last two seasons at Central Florida.
Harvey remains undervalued in both fantasy football and betting. He'd have top-five odds for me to win OROY, at least 10% likely, so that makes him a serious bargain at +3000 (DraftKings), or +3600 at Circa if you have it.
Nate Tice called Kaleb Johnson "Honey, I shrunk Derrick Henry," and now he'll play in the zone-heavy Arthur Smith run scheme that helped Henry leap to stardom.
Johnson had a monster 240/1,537/21 line on the ground at Iowa a year ago and could take many of the 263 carries Najee Harris had last season.
Smith's offenses routinely rank near the top half of the league in rushing attempts so Johnson could be in for a big role once he earns the staff's trust — and this young offensive line has upside. He's a good long shot at +4000 (FanDuel) or +5500 (Circa).
Seventh-round sleeper Jacory Croskey-Merritt could be in for a similar role in Washington now that Brian Robinson has been traded.
"Bill" has had a great preseason, and it's often a good idea backing a RB playing next to a QB running threat. JCM has only seven receptions in his career, so you'll likely need a bunch of yards and a heap of short TDs, but that could be possible for a Washington offense that's invested a lot in its line.
Croskey-Merritt is shooting up fantasy boards and odds alike. He's a starting RB on a good offense — that means he's worth a play in theory, but be sure to shop around. I'd sprinkle him at +3500 at BetRivers or +4000 (Circa), but probably stop before +2500.
Harvey, Johnson, and Croskey-Merritt are worthy sleeper investments at long prices in a year where there aren't great QB options.
Two Crazy Long Shots for the Road
QB Shedeur Sanders, Browns +8000
OT Josh Simmons, Chiefs +50000
We're already over 25 names into this article, so how about two more outlandish long shots before I declare my positions?
Both of these names would be complete outliers for the history of the award — but I can't rule them out.
Sanders was supposed to be a top-three pick; instead he was a Day Three pick.
Who knows if or when Sanders will even play, and he almost certainly won't play enough, win enough, or get the requisite stats to fit any of our criteria. But Sanders is such a polarizing lighting rod figure in the media that none of that stuff will matter if he gets onto the field and looks like a real NFL quarterback for the Browns, even late in the season.
You absolutely should not bet right now on a fifth-round, third-string QB for the worst team in the league.
But you shouldn't completely rule out betting Sanders later in the season either … just in case.
And then there's Josh Simmons, a tackle taken with the final pick of the first round by the Chiefs. An offensive lineman has never won OROY, or any other major NFL award for that matter, and Simmons wasn't even one of the top seven linemen taken in the draft after a patellar injury cut his season short and put his future in jeopardy.
But Simmons is also extremely talented — Brandon Thorn's No. 1 rated blocker in the draft when healthy — and Simmons has looked healthy and outstanding and will step immediately into a starting left tackle role, protecting the blindside of the best player in the game.
If Simmons plays well and Patrick Mahomes finally has time to throw it deep again, we're going to hear Josh Simmons talked about as an "it" rookie on every broadcast all season. It's the Chiefs, after all!
Heck, we'll probably even hear the Kelces talk about Simmons on the booming "New Heights" podcast at some point, seeing as one one of them will be lining up next to him at tight end and the other one is an offensive lineman.
All we need now is Taylor Swift to show up to a Kansas City game rocking a No. 71 Simmons jersey and this Love Story will be complete.
Listen, he's 500-to-1 (Caesars)!!
You've bet a dollar on dumber things.
The Verdict
I'm passing on Ashton Jeanty and Cam Ward since favorites typically don't win OROY, but Travis Hunter looks like a worthy investment at a discounted price.
I want a piece of those long shots, too, though. This feels like a more open Rookie of the Year race than usual, so let's sprinkle a few names.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Best Bets
- Travis Hunter +1200 (0.5 units)
- RJ Harvey +3600 (0.25 units)
- Jacory Croskey-Merritt +4000 (0.25 units)
- Kaleb Johnson +5500 (0.25 units)
- Josh Simmons +50000 (0.25 units)
