This pains me to admit as a Vikings fan, but Dan Campbell's Lions absolutely own this division rivalry right now. Jared Goff is a perfect 8-0 ATS with the Lions against Minnesota. The Lions have won five in a row against the Vikings by an average of 10.2 PPG, including wins by at least 11 points in three straight home meetings. Goff and this Lions offense have shredded defensive coordinator Brian Flores's defense, owning the middle of the field and getting the ball out quickly to playmakers to defeat all that Flores' aggression before it can get home. Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least six catches for 60 yards in eight straight games against Minnesota — and this is as bad as the Vikings defense has been in years, too. Now J.J. McCarthy returns as quarterback for the Vikings after nearly two months away, magically healthy and ready after a season-ending Carson Wentz injury, just in time to face the league's No. 1 DVOA defense on the road in Detroit. Yikes. Minnesota invested heavily in its offensive line but has gotten horrid injury luck. McCarthy has held the ball too long and won't have that luxury against Detroit's pressure. I don't mind just grabbing Lions -8.5, if you can only bet the full game. Jared Goff is a ridiculous 75% ATS with the Lions in indoor games, and Dan Campbell is 71% ATS as a favorite in his career. The Lions are rested off the bye as well, with both Goff and Campbell profitable in that spot in their careers. I prefer the Lions' first half at -5.5. We get below a touchdown, and we also get to bet against a rusty McCarthy right out of the gates. McCarthy was terrible early in both his September starts, struggling to find a rhythm until the second half. And really, the Vikings have been awful in first halves almost all year. Minnesota did lay the smackdown on Carolina, leading 34-3 at the half, but the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in first halves (compared to 5-2 ATS in the second half), so that was the only bright spot. The Vikings haven't scored more than seven points in the first half outside of that Panthers game, trailing by 7.3 PPG at halftime this season, with an average score of 13.0 to 5.7. The Vikings offense ranks dead last by DVOA in the first half, and those first-half woes have played out in this rivalry, too. The Lions led by an average score of 12.3 to 6.3 at halftime in their last three home games against Minnesota, and the Lions are 5-2 against the first-half spread this season. There's one other reason to play just a Lions first-half angle — because the Lions' secondary has major injury issues and we won't have to wait around in fear of a backdoor cover. Detroit has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Lions have really only faced two true superstar WRs so far, and both Rome Odunze and Ja'Marr Chase had at least six catches for 110 yards and two scores. Enter Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has devoured the Lions in his career. He has 1,208 receiving yards against Detroit, most against any team, with the Bears a very distant second at 729. Jefferson averages 121 YPG in 10 games against the Lions, with at least 124 yards in over half (six) of those. He's had games with 182, 192, and 223 yards against Detroit! That said, McCarthy is a bit of a reason for concern. Jefferson caught just 3.5 passes for 63 YPG with McCarthy, compared to 6.8 for 95 with Wentz. But he's also gone over this posted yards line of 72.5 in six straight games since the opener, including one McCarthy game. I'll skip the median outcome in case McCarthy is just a dud and go straight for some of the high-end outcomes. Split your bet between 100+ receiving yards at +240 and 120+ yards at +475 (bet365). And if you like the upside, it's probably worth nibbling 150 yards at +1200 (bet365) and 180 yards at +3000 (DraftKings) too, since Jefferson's done that in the past against Detroit. Remember, Jefferson is doing all this damage despite Detroit's dominance against Minnesota in recent years. This should play in any game script.

This pains me to admit as a Vikings fan, but Dan Campbell's Lions absolutely own this division rivalry right now. Jared Goff is a perfect 8-0 ATS with the Lions against Minnesota. The Lions have won five in a row against the Vikings by an average of 10.2 PPG, including wins by at least 11 points in three straight home meetings. Goff and this Lions offense have shredded defensive coordinator Brian Flores's defense, owning the middle of the field and getting the ball out quickly to playmakers to defeat all that Flores' aggression before it can get home. Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least six catches for 60 yards in eight straight games against Minnesota — and this is as bad as the Vikings defense has been in years, too. Now J.J. McCarthy returns as quarterback for the Vikings after nearly two months away, magically healthy and ready after a season-ending Carson Wentz injury, just in time to face the league's No. 1 DVOA defense on the road in Detroit. Yikes. Minnesota invested heavily in its offensive line but has gotten horrid injury luck. McCarthy has held the ball too long and won't have that luxury against Detroit's pressure. I don't mind just grabbing Lions -8.5, if you can only bet the full game. Jared Goff is a ridiculous 75% ATS with the Lions in indoor games, and Dan Campbell is 71% ATS as a favorite in his career. The Lions are rested off the bye as well, with both Goff and Campbell profitable in that spot in their careers. I prefer the Lions' first half at -5.5. We get below a touchdown, and we also get to bet against a rusty McCarthy right out of the gates. McCarthy was terrible early in both his September starts, struggling to find a rhythm until the second half. And really, the Vikings have been awful in first halves almost all year. Minnesota did lay the smackdown on Carolina, leading 34-3 at the half, but the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in first halves (compared to 5-2 ATS in the second half), so that was the only bright spot. The Vikings haven't scored more than seven points in the first half outside of that Panthers game, trailing by 7.3 PPG at halftime this season, with an average score of 13.0 to 5.7. The Vikings offense ranks dead last by DVOA in the first half, and those first-half woes have played out in this rivalry, too. The Lions led by an average score of 12.3 to 6.3 at halftime in their last three home games against Minnesota, and the Lions are 5-2 against the first-half spread this season. There's one other reason to play just a Lions first-half angle — because the Lions' secondary has major injury issues and we won't have to wait around in fear of a backdoor cover. Detroit has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Lions have really only faced two true superstar WRs so far, and both Rome Odunze and Ja'Marr Chase had at least six catches for 110 yards and two scores. Enter Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has devoured the Lions in his career. He has 1,208 receiving yards against Detroit, most against any team, with the Bears a very distant second at 729. Jefferson averages 121 YPG in 10 games against the Lions, with at least 124 yards in over half (six) of those. He's had games with 182, 192, and 223 yards against Detroit! That said, McCarthy is a bit of a reason for concern. Jefferson caught just 3.5 passes for 63 YPG with McCarthy, compared to 6.8 for 95 with Wentz. But he's also gone over this posted yards line of 72.5 in six straight games since the opener, including one McCarthy game. I'll skip the median outcome in case McCarthy is just a dud and go straight for some of the high-end outcomes. Split your bet between 100+ receiving yards at +240 and 120+ yards at +475 (bet365). And if you like the upside, it's probably worth nibbling 150 yards at +1200 (bet365) and 180 yards at +3000 (DraftKings) too, since Jefferson's done that in the past against Detroit. Remember, Jefferson is doing all this damage despite Detroit's dominance against Minnesota in recent years. This should play in any game script.

This pains me to admit as a Vikings fan, but Dan Campbell's Lions absolutely own this division rivalry right now. Jared Goff is a perfect 8-0 ATS with the Lions against Minnesota. The Lions have won five in a row against the Vikings by an average of 10.2 PPG, including wins by at least 11 points in three straight home meetings. Goff and this Lions offense have shredded defensive coordinator Brian Flores's defense, owning the middle of the field and getting the ball out quickly to playmakers to defeat all that Flores' aggression before it can get home. Amon-Ra St. Brown has at least six catches for 60 yards in eight straight games against Minnesota — and this is as bad as the Vikings defense has been in years, too. Now J.J. McCarthy returns as quarterback for the Vikings after nearly two months away, magically healthy and ready after a season-ending Carson Wentz injury, just in time to face the league's No. 1 DVOA defense on the road in Detroit. Yikes. Minnesota invested heavily in its offensive line but has gotten horrid injury luck. McCarthy has held the ball too long and won't have that luxury against Detroit's pressure. I don't mind just grabbing Lions -8.5, if you can only bet the full game. Jared Goff is a ridiculous 75% ATS with the Lions in indoor games, and Dan Campbell is 71% ATS as a favorite in his career. The Lions are rested off the bye as well, with both Goff and Campbell profitable in that spot in their careers. I prefer the Lions' first half at -5.5. We get below a touchdown, and we also get to bet against a rusty McCarthy right out of the gates. McCarthy was terrible early in both his September starts, struggling to find a rhythm until the second half. And really, the Vikings have been awful in first halves almost all year. Minnesota did lay the smackdown on Carolina, leading 34-3 at the half, but the Vikings are 1-6 ATS in first halves (compared to 5-2 ATS in the second half), so that was the only bright spot. The Vikings haven't scored more than seven points in the first half outside of that Panthers game, trailing by 7.3 PPG at halftime this season, with an average score of 13.0 to 5.7. The Vikings offense ranks dead last by DVOA in the first half, and those first-half woes have played out in this rivalry, too. The Lions led by an average score of 12.3 to 6.3 at halftime in their last three home games against Minnesota, and the Lions are 5-2 against the first-half spread this season. There's one other reason to play just a Lions first-half angle — because the Lions' secondary has major injury issues and we won't have to wait around in fear of a backdoor cover. Detroit has allowed the third most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Lions have really only faced two true superstar WRs so far, and both Rome Odunze and Ja'Marr Chase had at least six catches for 110 yards and two scores. Enter Justin Jefferson. Jefferson has devoured the Lions in his career. He has 1,208 receiving yards against Detroit, most against any team, with the Bears a very distant second at 729. Jefferson averages 121 YPG in 10 games against the Lions, with at least 124 yards in over half (six) of those. He's had games with 182, 192, and 223 yards against Detroit! That said, McCarthy is a bit of a reason for concern. Jefferson caught just 3.5 passes for 63 YPG with McCarthy, compared to 6.8 for 95 with Wentz. But he's also gone over this posted yards line of 72.5 in six straight games since the opener, including one McCarthy game. I'll skip the median outcome in case McCarthy is just a dud and go straight for some of the high-end outcomes. Split your bet between 100+ receiving yards at +240 and 120+ yards at +475 (bet365). And if you like the upside, it's probably worth nibbling 150 yards at +1200 (bet365) and 180 yards at +3000 (DraftKings) too, since Jefferson's done that in the past against Detroit. Remember, Jefferson is doing all this damage despite Detroit's dominance against Minnesota in recent years. This should play in any game script.