The stakes are significantly higher for the Lions in this one. The Rams are pushing for the NFC one-seed, but you'll forgive them if they already have their eyes on a much more important game to come four days after this one, as L.A. heads to Seattle for what might be the most significant game of the season. If the Rams win in Seattle, they're 90% to win the division, per The Athletic, regardless of this Detroit game. Win out after a win in Seattle, beating Atlanta and Arizona, and L.A. is 95% to clinch the one-seed — again, regardless of a Lions result. This game doesn't matter that much for L.A. A win would be a bonus, especially against old friend Jared Goff, but it matters much more to Detroit. The Lions are just trying to get into the postseason, and stealing this one would go a long way toward giving them a shot at the playoffs. Detroit sits at 40% to make the playoffs at the moment, but moves to 90% if they win this game and either beat Chicago in Week 18 or sweep Pittsburgh and Minnesota in between. Lose this one and the Lions drop to around 30% to make the playoffs, effectively needing to win out and get help over those final three games to squeeze in. This matters more to Detroit, which means the Lions will play and coach more aggressively, and they'll do so with extra rest, with everything on the line, as opposed to a Rams team just trying to get to Thursday healthy. That stuff matters. These are both outstanding teams, each of them in the top five by DVOA on both offense and defense. The Rams' offense is the standout unit, though their special teams is by far the weakest. There's a world where Matthew Stafford puts up another MVP performance against his old team, a reeling secondary missing its top three players. In the last three games against the Lions, Sean McVay has relentlessly attacked this man-heavy defense with his go-to receiver — the Rams WR1 has averaged 11 catches for 149 yards in those games. That includes a 9/181 game from Puka Nacua, I'm investing in some alt overs in case Nacua goes off again. The Lions rank bottom 10 by DVOA against WR1s and have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Nacua saw a midseason dip from Weeks 6-11 to barely over 50% snaps and just 6.3 targets a game, but the eight games before and after have seen 74% snap rate with 11.6 targets a game and an average line of 9/116. I'll skip the median outcomes and play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365) and 150+ receiving yards at +451 (DraftKings). But even with Stafford and this passing attack lighting up the scoreboard, the Lions won two of those three matchups anyway, and this team stacks up stylistically like other teams that have given the Rams problems. LA's losses this season have come against the Eagles, 49ers, and Panthers — three teams with physical, bruising rushing attacks that can control the clock and keep Stafford and this offense on the sidelines. The Rams also barely got past the Colts and Seahawks, two more teams that fit that bill. That's Lions football, running the ball and biting kneecaps. That's how Dan Campbell wants his team to live. Detroit's secondary got lit up by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last Thursday, too, but the Lions won comfortably anyway. If Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery attack all game on the ground, can the Rams defense keep up? LA's defensive front is built around small, speedy pass rushers. The Rams have struggled against bigger, more physical teams. If those pass rushers do get pressure on Jared Goff, the numbers suggest that it will be a big problem for Detroit. But if Goff can get the ball out quickly or keep handing it off to his runners, Detroit can play Lions football and follow the underdog script to victory. The preseason line for this game was Lions -1.5. It's now Rams -5.5, a full touchdown in LA's direction. Are the Rams really a full touchdown better than the Lions now compared to what we expected coming into the season? Detroit just needs this more than L.A. The Rams are the better team, but the Lions have matchup advantages to exploit and it's worth playing the +225 moneyline and giving Detroit a chance to win. This was the underdog I built this week's Pick Six moneyline parlay around, pairing Lions ML with five big favorites at +571.

The stakes are significantly higher for the Lions in this one. The Rams are pushing for the NFC one-seed, but you'll forgive them if they already have their eyes on a much more important game to come four days after this one, as L.A. heads to Seattle for what might be the most significant game of the season. If the Rams win in Seattle, they're 90% to win the division, per The Athletic, regardless of this Detroit game. Win out after a win in Seattle, beating Atlanta and Arizona, and L.A. is 95% to clinch the one-seed — again, regardless of a Lions result. This game doesn't matter that much for L.A. A win would be a bonus, especially against old friend Jared Goff, but it matters much more to Detroit. The Lions are just trying to get into the postseason, and stealing this one would go a long way toward giving them a shot at the playoffs. Detroit sits at 40% to make the playoffs at the moment, but moves to 90% if they win this game and either beat Chicago in Week 18 or sweep Pittsburgh and Minnesota in between. Lose this one and the Lions drop to around 30% to make the playoffs, effectively needing to win out and get help over those final three games to squeeze in. This matters more to Detroit, which means the Lions will play and coach more aggressively, and they'll do so with extra rest, with everything on the line, as opposed to a Rams team just trying to get to Thursday healthy. That stuff matters. These are both outstanding teams, each of them in the top five by DVOA on both offense and defense. The Rams' offense is the standout unit, though their special teams is by far the weakest. There's a world where Matthew Stafford puts up another MVP performance against his old team, a reeling secondary missing its top three players. In the last three games against the Lions, Sean McVay has relentlessly attacked this man-heavy defense with his go-to receiver — the Rams WR1 has averaged 11 catches for 149 yards in those games. That includes a 9/181 game from Puka Nacua, I'm investing in some alt overs in case Nacua goes off again. The Lions rank bottom 10 by DVOA against WR1s and have allowed the second most fantasy points to opposing WRs. Nacua saw a midseason dip from Weeks 6-11 to barely over 50% snaps and just 6.3 targets a game, but the eight games before and after have seen 74% snap rate with 11.6 targets a game and an average line of 9/116. I'll skip the median outcomes and play 10+ receptions at +220 (bet365) and 150+ receiving yards at +451 (DraftKings). But even with Stafford and this passing attack lighting up the scoreboard, the Lions won two of those three matchups anyway, and this team stacks up stylistically like other teams that have given the Rams problems. LA's losses this season have come against the Eagles, 49ers, and Panthers — three teams with physical, bruising rushing attacks that can control the clock and keep Stafford and this offense on the sidelines. The Rams also barely got past the Colts and Seahawks, two more teams that fit that bill. That's Lions football, running the ball and biting kneecaps. That's how Dan Campbell wants his team to live. Detroit's secondary got lit up by Dak Prescott and the Cowboys last Thursday, too, but the Lions won comfortably anyway. If Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery attack all game on the ground, can the Rams defense keep up? LA's defensive front is built around small, speedy pass rushers. The Rams have struggled against bigger, more physical teams. If those pass rushers do get pressure on Jared Goff, the numbers suggest that it will be a big problem for Detroit. But if Goff can get the ball out quickly or keep handing it off to his runners, Detroit can play Lions football and follow the underdog script to victory. The preseason line for this game was Lions -1.5. It's now Rams -5.5, a full touchdown in LA's direction. Are the Rams really a full touchdown better than the Lions now compared to what we expected coming into the season? Detroit just needs this more than L.A. The Rams are the better team, but the Lions have matchup advantages to exploit and it's worth playing the +225 moneyline and giving Detroit a chance to win. This was the underdog I built this week's Pick Six moneyline parlay around, pairing Lions ML with five big favorites at +571.