Koerner’s Monday Night Miracle Odds: Will You Get Your Fantasy Win?
Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Montgomery
- Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Bears and Redskins players scoring enough points to win your Week 3 fantasy football matchups.
Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.
So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?
I simulated tonight’s Bears-Redskins matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 15 points from David Montgomery? He has a 4.1% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.
Here are the players I’ll touch on:
- Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson
- Redskins: Case Keenum, Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson, Terry McLaurin, Vernon Davis
Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)