Koerner’s Monday Night Miracle Odds: Will You Get Your Fantasy Win?

Koerner’s Monday Night Miracle Odds: Will You Get Your Fantasy Win? article feature image

Daniel Bartel-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: David Montgomery

  • Sean Koerner calculates the probability of key Bears and Redskins players scoring enough points to win your Week 3 fantasy football matchups.

Monday Night Football can make or break your weekly fantasy matchup. Sweating player(s) you and/or your opponent have makes it a high leverage situation.

So what’re your chances for a Monday night miracle win?

I simulated tonight’s Bears-Redskins matchup 10,000 times to calculate the probability of key players hitting certain point thresholds. So, for example: Need 15 points from David Montgomery? He has a 4.1% chance of pulling out a MNF miracle for you.

Here are the players I’ll touch on:

  • Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Allen Robinson
  • Redskins: Case Keenum, Adrian Peterson, Chris Thompson, Terry McLaurin, Vernon Davis

Now let’s dig into the full odds. (Note these are based on half PPR scoring.)

Mitchell Trubisky, QB, Bears

David Montgomery, RB, Bears

Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears

Allen Robinson, WR, Bears

Case Keenum, QB, Redskins

Adrian Peterson, RB, Redskins

Chris Thompson, RB, Redskins

Terry McLaurin, WR, Redskins

Vernon Davis, TE, Redskins

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