3 Best Cowboys vs. Saints Prop Bets
Photo credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ezekiel Elliott
- The New Orleans Saints will play host to the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET).
- The spread -- Cowboys -2.5 -- indicates the betting market likes Dallas to take home the victory.
- What does that mean for prop bets tonight? Let's look at three offering betting value.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities for bettors.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Let’s take a look at three props with a Bet Quality of at least 7 for the Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. Since the start of the season, props with a grade of 8 or higher have gone 240-148-2 (61.5% win rate).
Saints TE Jared Cook
THE PICK: Under 3.5 receptions (-137)
Bet Quality: 9/10
This prop bet has the highest projected differential from the implied total on the Sunday Night Football slate.
Coming off a career season in Oakland, expectations were high for tight end Jared Cook in New Orleans. However, through three games, Cook has been a disappointment and is unlikely to reverse that trend on Sunday Night Football.
Cook ranks just 14th among all tight ends in targets (12) and a paltry 32nd in receptions (five). Last week, with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, Cook totaled only one reception on two targets against the Seahawks.
Against a strong Dallas defense that just returned defensive end Robert Quinn from suspension, Cook will continue to be asked to block for the Saints’ run-heavy attack in support of weak-armed Bridgewater. Cook has run an average of just 21 routes per game this season and has yet to crest two receptions in any individual game.
Our FantasyLabs projection of 2.8 receptions is well below the 3.5 prop bet line. This season, prop bets with a 9 rating are winning at a 68% (63-28-1) clip.
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott
THE PICK: Over 2.5 receptions (-125)
Bet Quality: 9/10
Similar to my thoughts on Titans running back Dion Lewis on the Sunday main slate, Ezekiel Elliott’s passing game usage is due for positive regression.
The New Orleans defense was much improved against the run last week, holding Seattle running back Chris Carson to 52 rushing yards on 15 carries (3.5 yards per carry). The Saints will need to continue that level of performance against a Dallas offense that is first overall in run offense DVOA.
Dallas has limited Elliott’s passing game usage over the first few weeks after his preseason holdout. In 2018, he ranked fifth among all running backs in both targets (95) and receptions (77).
With wide receiver Michael Gallup (knee) still out, look for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to increase Elliott’s passing game volume against the Saints. Elliott did receive a season-high three targets in last week’s blowout of the Dolphins but is still well short of his 6.3 targets per game average last season.
I would bet this up to -135.
Cowboys RB Ezekiel Elliott
THE PICK: Over 22.5 receiving yards (+120)
Bet Quality: 8/10
After our 2-0 result with Todd Gurley last Sunday Night, we will again hope to find double-up success with Elliott props this week.
The Saints have generated a run-first game plan even before the injury to quarterback Drew Brees. Per Football Outsiders, New Orleans ranked 29th in pace last year at an average of 29.5 seconds per play. That has continued this season with almost an identical time of 29.6 seconds per play.
New Orleans’ ball-control game plan and home-field advantage should limit big plays and force the Cowboys to more short-to-intermediate passes. With the expected increase in receptions for Elliott, an over/under receiving total of 22.5 seems easy to reach.
Elliott totaled a season-high of 14 receiving yards last week, even with splitting time with Tony Pollard in the big 31-6 home win over Miami.
Our model projects 12% more receiving yards than the implied total of 21.2. The +120 juice is very enticing for this 8 out of 10 rated prop bet.