NFL Week 4 Pick ‘Em Pool Confidence Ratings: Best Straight-Up & ATS Picks

NFL Week 4 Pick ‘Em Pool Confidence Ratings: Best Straight-Up & ATS Picks article feature image

Photo credit: TODAY NETWORK. Pictured: Dak Prescott

  • Week 4 features a few marquee games: Eagles at Packers (-4.5), Chiefs at Lions (+6.5), and Cowboys at Saints (+2.5).
  • Sean Koerner breaks down the best NFL Pick 'Em picks for Week 4, featuring 1-to-32 ratings for against-the-spread and straight-up picks.
  • Be sure to check out the downloadable spreadsheet at the bottom to get customized advice based on the spreads used in your pool.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 4 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.

Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 3 then wrap it up with ATS.

Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings

Straight Up Confidence Ratings

1. Chargers

Matchup: Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 90.4%

2. Rams

Matchup: Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 83.1%

3. Colts

Matchup: Raiders
Confidence Rating: 75.7%

T-4. Patriots

Matchup: Bills
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

T-4. Ravens

Matchup: Browns
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

T-6. Texans

Matchup: Panthers
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

T-6. Chiefs

Matchup: Lions
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

8. Packers

Matchup: Eagles
Confidence Rating: 65.2%

9. Falcons

Matchup: Titans
Confidence Rating: 63.6%

T-10. Broncos

Matchup: Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-10. Seahawks

Matchup: Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 62%

12. Steelers

Matchup: Bengals
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

T-13. Bears

Matchup: Vikings
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

T-13. Giants

Matchup: Redskins
Confidence Rating: 58.6%

15. Cowboys

Matchup: Saints
Confidence Rating: 53.5%

16. Saints

Matchup: Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 46.5%

T-17. Redskins

Matchup: Giants
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

T-17. Vikings

Matchup: Bears
Confidence Rating: 41.4%

19. Bengals

Matchup: Steelers
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-20. Jaguars

Matchup: Broncos
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-20. Cardinals

Matchup: Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 38%

22. Titans

Matchup: Falcons
Confidence Rating: 36.4%

23. Eagles

Matchup: Packers
Confidence Rating: 34.8%

T-24. Panthers

Matchup: Texans
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

T-24. Lions

Matchup: Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

T-26. Browns

Matchup: Ravens
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

T-26. Bills

Matchup: Patriots
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

28. Raiders

Matchup: Colts
Confidence Rating: 24.3%

29. Buccaneers

Matchup: Rams
Confidence Rating: 16.9%

30. Dolphins

Matchup: Chargers
Confidence Rating: 9.6%

Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings

Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

1. Cardinals

Spread: +5.5
Opponent: Seahawks

T-2. Dolphins

Spread: +16.5
Opponent: Chargers

T-2. Saints

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: Cowboys

T-2. Bengals

Spread: +4.5
Opponent: Steelers

T-5. Browns

Spread: +7
Opponent: Ravens

T-5. Bills

Spread: +7
Opponent: Patriots

T-5. Colts

Spread: -7
Opponent: Raiders

T-5. Lions

Spread: +6.5
Opponent: Chiefs

T-5. Rams

Spread: -10
Opponent: Buccaneers

T-5. Texans

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: Panthers

T-11. Broncos

Spread: -3
Opponent: Broncos

T-11. Redskins

Spread: +3
Opponent: Giants

T-11. Eagles

Spread: +5
Opponent: Eagles

T-14. Vikings

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: Bears

T-14. Falcons

Spread: -4
Opponent: Titans

T-14. Titans

Spread: +4
Opponent: Falcons

T-14. Bears

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: Vikings

T-18. Giants

Spread: -3
Opponent: Redskins

T-18. Jaguars

Spread: +3
Opponent: Broncos

T-18. Packers

Spread: -5
Opponent: Eagles

T-21. Ravens

Spread: -7
Opponent: Browns

T-21. Raiders

Spread: +7
Opponent: Colts

T-21. Panthers

Spread: +4.5
Opponent: Texans

T-21. Chiefs

Spread: -6.5
Opponent: Lions

T-21. Buccaneers

Spread: +10
Opponent: Rams

T-21. Patriots

Spread: -7
Opponent: Bills

T-27. Chargers

Spread: -16.5
Opponent: Dolphins

dolphins vs patriots odds-spread-favorite-underdog
Jasen Vinlove, USA Today Sports.

T-27. Steelers

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: Bengals

T-27. Cowboys

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: Saints

30. Seahawks

Spread: -5.5
Opponent: Cardinals

Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

How would you rate this article?