Our Favorite Lions vs. Packers Prop Bets & Picks for Monday Night Football

Our Favorite Lions vs. Packers Prop Bets & Picks for Monday Night Football article feature image
Credit:

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Geronimo Allison

  • Find the best prop bets for Monday Night Football featuring the Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers below.
  • We make picks for T.J. Hockenson's and Geronimo Allison's receiving yards, as well as Matthew Stafford's pass attempts.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool. Last season unders were profitable even with grades below 10, with all hitting at a 59.0% rate. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.

Let’s take a look at three props worth considering for the Monday Night Football contest between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.

Lions vs. Packers Prop Bets

Lions TE T.J. Hockenson


THE PICK: Under 30.5 receiving yards (-115)

Hockenson burst onto the scene with one of the most impressive debuts in NFL history, racking up six catches for 131 yards and a touchdown against Arizona — but that performance doesn’t seem nearly as impressive in retrospect. The Cardinals have been absolutely shredded by opposing tight ends this season, ranking just 30th in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA.

Hockenson has been mediocre in his past three performances, logging just 10 total targets and turning those into only five catches for 35 yards. Overall, he’s posted a target market share of 12% or less in each of those contests.

He doesn’t figure to have an easier go against the Packers, whose defense currently ranks fifth in pass defense DVOA, and they’ve done a solid job vs. TEs this season.

Packers WR Geronimo Allison

THE PICK: Under 49.5 receiving yards (-115)

Packers WRs should see a few additional targets with Devante Adams out of the lineup, but there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to take advantage. Allison in particular has a brutal matchup. He plays nearly all of his snaps in the slot, which sets up a brutal matchup vs. Justin Coleman. He’s been one of the best corners of the season, earning the fifth-highest grade at the position on Pro Football Focus.

Allison also wasn’t particularly impressive in his first game without Adams. Allison did see a season-high six targets, but only managed two catches for 28 yards.

Allison is not an imposing WR, so I don’t like his chances in this matchup. I’d play the under up to -140.

Lions QB Matthew Stafford

THE PICK: Under 36.5 pass attempts (-115)

The days of Stafford attempting 700-plus passes in a single season are over. The Lions have shown a new-found commitment to running the football under head coach Matt Patricia. They currently rank just 27th in pass rate and 18th in neutral pace. That’s not a combination that leads to a ton of passing volume, and Stafford has thrown 34 or fewer passes in three of four games this season.

This matchup sets up perfectly for a team that wants to run the football. The Packers’ secondary is awesome, but they’ve struggled to defend against the run this season. They rank just 28th in rush defense DVOA, so expect Detroit to lean on their rushing attack in this contest.

This prop is at least a couple attempts too high. I like the under up to -140.