Lions vs. Packers Expert Picks: How to Bet This Monday Night Football Spread
Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers
- Monday Night Football odds have been on the move all week.
- Our experts break down how they're betting the Lions vs. Packers spread.
Lions at Packers Odds & Picks
- Odds: Packers -3.5
- Over/Under: 45.5
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Odds as of 11:45 a.m. ET on Monday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers welcome the Detroit Lions into Lambeau Field for an NFC North showdown on Monday Night Football.
The betting market has moved in favor of Matthew Stafford and Co., moving them from 6- to 3.5-point underdogs, but are our experts following that movement?
Our staff reveals how they’re betting this game, complete with two spread picks.
Matthew Freedman: Packers -3.5
Rodgers has notable home/away against the spread splits.
- Home: 50-28-3, 24.7% ROI
- Away: 42-39-1, 1.9% ROI
In the Rodgers era (since 2008), the Packers are the only team in the league that is top-five in home/away scoring differential for both offense and defense, as they have averaged 3.7 more points per game at home than on the road and held opponents to a league-best 4.9 fewer points in Green Bay.
As a result, they have an NFL-high 8.5-point overall home/away scoring differential. At Lambeau Field, they truly have a home-field advantage.
Rodgers also has significant divisional splits.
- In division: 38-23-0, 21.8% ROI
- Outside of division: 54-44-4, 8.1% ROI
Against teams he knows well, Rodgers has historically had an extra edge.
When these two splits are combined and Rodgers is a divisional home favorite, the Packers are 20-10 (30.1% ROI).
I bet this at Packers -6 earlier in the week.
John Ewing: Packers -3.5
Despite their superior record and the game taking place in Lambeau, the Packers have moved from 6- to 3.5-point favorites since opening. But can gamblers trust Matt Patricia’s team to cover?
History says no.
Primetime games like Monday Night Football are among the most heavily bet contests every week. A large line move in these matchups is often an overreaction by the public to a piece of information like an injury or poor recent play.
It’s been profitable to go against big line moves in primetime games. Since 2003, a $100 bettor would have won $2,333 backing teams that see the line move at least two points against them (+3 to +5 or -3 to -1, for example) according to our data at Bet Labs.
The Packers will be without Davante Adams — one of the best receivers in the league — and a few other contributors, but the line movement is an overreaction. Sean Koerner’s NFL Power Ratings agree. According to his numbers, the Packers should be 5.5-point favorites.
The market is moving against the Packers, but I’m backing them.
Matt LaMarca: Matthew Stafford Under 36.5 Pass Attempts (-115)
The days of Stafford attempting 700-plus passes in a single season are over. The Lions have shown a new-found commitment to running the football under head coach Matt Patricia. They currently rank just 27th in pass rate and 18th in neutral pace. That’s not a combination that leads to a ton of passing volume, and Stafford has thrown 34 or fewer passes in three of four games this season.
This matchup sets up perfectly for a team that wants to run the football. The Packers’ secondary is awesome, but they’ve struggled to defend against the run this season. They rank just 28th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA, so expect Detroit to lean on their rushing attack in this contest.
This prop is at least a couple attempts too high. I like the under up to -140.