Contrarian Bettors Primed for Profits as We Enter “Overreaction Season” in the NFL


Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ravens HC John Harbaugh.

Sep 12, 2019, 08:00 PM EDT
  • The betting public has historically overreacted to things they see in the first week of the NFL season, which has led to value in Weeks 2 and 3.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we break down how to take advantage of this phenomenon.

After Week 1, plenty of us are making grandiose assumptions.

Lamar Jackson is the next Patrick Mahomes! Marlon Mack is rushing for 2,000 yards this year! The Dolphins are going to lose by 40 points every game this year! Well, that last one might actually be true…

The thing is — Week 1 is just another random week in the grand scheme of things. The large majority of the extreme performances are bound to come back to earth very soon. The Ravens aren’t as good as they were on Sunday, nor are the Dolphins as bad.

If these things had happened in Week 7 or something, it wouldn’t be a big deal. Since it was Week 1, though, everyone overreacts. They think that what we saw last week will be indicative of what we see for the rest of the 2019 season.

How do I know this? Well, quite frankly, the data proves that over the next two weeks, the public doesn’t know what the hell they’re talking about.