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Updated NFL MVP Odds: Brees a Massive Favorite Following Week 12

Nov 29, 2018 10:28 PM EST
  • Following a four-touchdown Thanksgiving performance, Drew Brees is now a -500 favorite to win the NFL MVP.
  • Patrick Mahomes dropped from +200 to +400 following his bye week, while Rams stars Jared Goff and Todd Gurley have both fallen to +3000.
  • Andrew Luck (+900) and Philip Rivers (+2500) were the only players besides Brees to see significant odds improvements.

Drew Brees’ Thanksgiving was kind of casual. The veteran slinger tossed four scores in a somewhat average-feeling 31-17 win over the Falcons.

I mean, the guy threw for only 171 yards and an interception. Not that great of a game, right?

WRONG! With that performance, Brees’ MVP odds have been boosted into the stratosphere.

The award is his to lose. He holds his own destiny and everyone who bet on Patrick Mahomes or anyone else needs to hope he screws it up down the stretch.

Risers

Drew Brees: -210 to -500 (+15.6% Implied Probability)

Well, well, well. Brees has had quite the meteoric rise over the past few weeks. So meteoric, in fact, that anyone with a Mahomes ticket will have an impossible time hedging at this point.

They’re going to need Brees to have a hiccup or two in the final five games to get an opportunity for that to happen, but then again, a wise man once said hedging is for landscapers.

As far as QB rating goes, Brees actually had his third-worst game of the season. The fact that 111.9 is his third-worst game of the season explains why he’s at -500.

He didn’t eclipse 200 yards, but threw for four touchdowns to bring his season total to 29.

The Saints quarterback did throw an interception (gasp) to double his season total from one to two, but he’s going to need to start throwing picks at a 2010 Brees-esque rate for those to start hurting his chances.

Andrew Luck: +2000 to +900 (+5.2% IP)

For a guy who was hardly talked about for the first couple months of the season, Luck has done a fine job of weaseling his way into the MVP discussion.

The Colts came back to beat the Dolphins on Sunday, marking their fifth straight win.

I think many folks expect there to be a sixth straight win when they visit Cody Kessler and the Jags this weekend, so Luck may see another bump when we check back a week from now.

Indy will need to keep winning, though, as I doubt he’ll get much consideration if the Colts fail to make the postseason.

Philip Rivers: +5000 to +2500 (+1.8% IP)

Though the opponent was not much to speak of, Rivers and the Chargers bounced back nicely after their loss to Denver.

If they hadn’t lost that Denver game, I would imagine Rivers’s odds would be below 10-1.

Rivers has nearly eclipsed Mahomes in terms of QB rating, but will almost surely fall short of him in the AFC West standings. It’s been a terrific season for the father of eight, but the scenarios in which he can take home the hardware are far-fetched.

Fallers

Patrick Mahomes: +200 to +400 (-13.3% IP)

This darn fella couldn’t even defend himself! How are they going to just continue to crush his odds when he didn’t even play?

I said it last week and I’ll say it again … Mahomes is going to need to play freaking spectacularly and have Brees falter down the stretch to get back in the running.

I would say at least a few of the following criteria will need to be checked off:

  • Mahomes breaks the TD record (needs 19 in final 5 games)
  • Chiefs win out (toughest games are vs. Chargers and at Seahawks)
  • Mahomes throws fewer than four interceptions down the stretch
  • Brees throws at least five more interceptions
  • The Saints lose at least one more game

I’m no voter and these are just completely made up, but if a few of those things happen, the MVP race will be much closer.

Of course, the ultimate wish for Mahomes bettors, whether they admit it or not, is that Brees gets hurt soon. If that happened, we’d have essentially a repeat of last year’s Carson Wentz situation.

Jared Goff: +1600 to +3000 (-2.7% IP) and Todd Gurley: +1800 to +3000 (-2.1% IP)

Much like Mahomes, the Rams stars had no retort to Brees’ big Thanksgiving. I find it a bit crazy that Goff, in particular, has such poor odds. The Rams could go 15-1.

His numbers (and rankings) look like this:

  • 26 TDs (4th), 6 INTs (sixth among QBs to start every game), 113.5 QB Rating (fourth), 3,547 yards (fourth)

Kind of a slap in the face to have a 10-1 record and be near the top of the leaderboard in every key statistical category and have 30-1 MVP odds.

Also boosting his case is the fact that the Rams should have a much easier time winning out than the Saints.

If Brees has a couple of poor games and a loss or two and the Rams win out with Goff leading the way … well, let’s just say this race isn’t over, yet.

Credit:

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Drew Brees

Follow Mark Gallant on Twitter
@marky_money

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