The NFL has made plenty of structural changes over the last few years, but one question remains: How do they pertain to win totals and futures in the betting market?
Whether it's the 17-game schedule or expanded playoffs, there will be at least a few changes when it comes to approaching the market.
Let's take a look at how these recent changes impact betting NFL win totals.
NFL Win Totals: How Does the 17-Game Schedule Impact Betting?
If you're diving into betting strategies when it comes to NFL win totals, here's a bit of insight based on some data analysis.
Going back to 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams, I've noticed that certain patterns emerge, making it easier to spot overlooked betting opportunities.
The 17-Game NFL Schedule
With the NFL's shift to a 17-game schedule, you'd think there'd be significant changes when it comes to betting these teams, but that's not really the case. It didn't drastically alter my betting approach.
However, it did magnify a sweet spot for teams sitting between 5 and 6.5 wins. Those teams are often a bit slept on, creating some value with an extra game to play.
On the other side, teams with double-digit win totals tend to be under or nothing if you're looking for a +EV blanket.
This makes betting on the lower win totals more attractive, especially since achieving double-digit wins is tougher for teams no longer led by Tom Brady or Peyton Manning.
Betting the over on high win totals can be risky at times, so for those who like to bet the over, keep an eye on those lower-tier teams that might just surprise everyone.
Along with the 17-game schedule, the league expanded the playoffs to include seven teams back during the COVID year. Both of those adjustments have altered the landscape quite a bit. As more data rolls in over time, there should be more patterns that pop up, giving us more info for future seasons.
Rookies Making Early Impacts
There's also another shift I've noticed that doesn't necessarily influence win totals directly, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
With the longer season, teams seem to be eager to get their rookies up to speed right out of the gate — especially those early-round picks.
Remember when tight ends used to take a couple of years to really get going, even if they were a top-tier prospect? Well, that's not the case anymore. Now, guys like Brock Bowers and Kyle Pitts can put up 1,000-yard seasons right from the start.
This shift is driven by the need to maximize rookie contracts and manage the salary cap efficiently, making it vital for teams to get their draft picks onto the field sooner.
We might start seeing trends develop in how teams that have mastered the art of drafting well perform over time.
