Raiders vs. Giants Odds, NFL Picks, Predictions: Potent Las Vegas Offense Should Shine In Week 9
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Derek Carr.
- Will the Giants' defense be able to slow down the Raiders' offense in Week 9?
- After examining the Raiders vs. Giants odds and matchup, our analyst concludes that's unlikely.
- Find out how he's betting this point spread as a result.
|Time||1 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.|
The Raiders have found a way to overcome the resignation of coach Jon Gruden by going 2-0 since his departure. The final score does not do those wins justice either as Vegas pulled out to a three-score lead in each. Now, the Raiders come out of a bye with a deeper understanding of Rich Bisaccia’s system and should be even more potent.
The Giants, on the other hand, are doing their best just to get to their Week 10 bye. An extra week off will allow New York to return several of its key contributors. We saw the impact of missing these players against the Chiefs as New York had its lowest yardage total of the season. It will be difficult, but if the Giants can pull out a win this week it should give a huge momentum boost when they come off their bye.
The line for this game is much closer than I would expect given the record discrepancy here. Let’s take a deeper look to see if there is anything we are missing though.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Raiders vs. Giants Injury Report
- Healthy off their bye week
- WR Sterling Shepard (quad): Out
- RB Saquon Barkley (ankle): Out
- LB Lorenzo Carter (ankle): Out
- DB Nate Ebner (ankle): Out
- WR Kenny Golladay (knee): Questionable
- WR John Ross (quad): Questionable
- RB Gary Brightwell (COVID protocol): Questionable
Raiders vs. Giants Matchup
|Raiders Offense||DVOA Rank||Giants Defense|
|Raiders Defense||DVOA Rank||Giants Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Raiders Must Maintain Deep Pass Threat
The Raiders were dealt a massive shock this week with the news of Henry Ruggs III’s off-field incident. Ruggs was arrested and charged with several felonies, including DUI resulting in death and reckless driving resulting in death or seriously bodily harm, for his involvement in a fatal car crash Tuesday that killed a 23-year-old woman. Las Vegas promptly cut Ruggs. Moving on from him was appropriate, but it leaves the Raiders without their deep threat.
This passing attack has been the backbone to the success of this offense too. The Raiders are up to 11th in passing offense, and a major contributor to that has been the deep ball. Derek Carr is currently averaging 9.0 intended air yards per pass attempt, which ranks sixth in the NFL.
To keep the success of the deep pass going, Vegas will need Bryan Edwards to step up. Edwards won’t come close to Ruggs’ 4.28, 40 time, but he has still managed 19.2 yards per catch, just below Ruggs’ 19.5. Hopefully, he can maintain that success now that teams can pay more attention to him.
If Raiders fail to replace their deep threat, it could spell bad news for their struggling run game. The Raiders already rank 25th in rushing DVOA and they average the second-fewest yards per carry at 3.5. If defenses feel no over-the-top threat, they could pack the box even more and turn the second-worst run team into the worst.
Defensively, the Raiders are built on two players: Maxx Crosby and Casey Hayward. Both rank top two at their position and have caused havoc for opponents. Crosby causes his problems up front as he ranks No. 1 in pressures this season with 47. Crosby will line up across from Nate Solder, PFF’s 67th-graded offensive tackle. He should feast.
As for Hayward, he simply does an excellent job taking away the opponent’s best receiver. For the Giants, given their injury status, that could be any one of Kenny Golladay, Darius Slayton or Kadarius Toney. Regardless, New York struggles on offense and will likely be missing multiple receiving threats. Having one taken away by Hayward simply makes things worse.
Giants Still Ravaged By Injury
Year after year it seems we are saying the same thing: The Giants need to fix the offensive line. This is a problem from the Eli Manning years and has not improved at all. Three of the Giants’ offensive linemen rank bottom 10 at their position, and the final two rank below average. Scheme and mobility can only do so much when five turnstiles are leading the way.
Even if they had better production up front, injuries would still be holding the Giants back. The only game New York has had their full complement of weapons was against the Falcons in Week 3. Unfortunately, this week may be more of the same. New York’s bye is next week, and with its playoff hopes already thin, it will likely remain cautious with any hurt players.
The combination of the troubled offensive line and injuries to their skill positions leave the Giants with DVOA’s 27th-ranked offense. After their bye, having their full array of weapons could make the Giants a much more dangerous team. However, that is still two weeks away.
Defensively, the Giants are fortunate that their strength will counteract the strength of the Raiders. Where New York’s defense excels is against the pass as it ranks 11th in DVOA. Leading the pass defense are the corners, James Bradberry and Adoree Jackson. Both corners are playing at a top-20 level, per PFF. They even have different styles as Bradberry plays big and physical and Jackson is more speed based. Their unique skillsets allow them to match up with whatever opposing receiving groups throw at them, even Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce last week.
NFL Pick: Raiders vs. Giants
While losing your deep threat is detrimental, the Raiders look ready to fill the void. Not only do they have Bryan Edwards who has made several key plays this year, but they also have Zay Jones. Jones may only have seven targets this year, but he has turned those into six catches for 115 yards and a touchdown. The important part for Vegas though is it still has its two top targets in Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow.
Carr’s willingness to play patient and feed Waller and Renfrow early is what opens the deep shots in the late stages of games. While the Giants do have good corners, they will face the same problems every team has. If you focus on Waller and Renfrow, you leave your third and fourth coverage options on islands on the outside. If you focus on stopping the big plays, the Raiders will have no problem dinking and dunking their way down the field. Essentially, Carr is making the right read at the right time and making the throws to back it up.
Against an offense that is functioning as well as the Raiders, it is hard to imagine the Giants keeping up. If Golladay and Toney do suit up, they will both be less than 100%. We have even seen Toney fight through injury but then be forced out of games early. Had New York entered this game healthy, I think it could be an exciting matchup. However, they are not healthy, and Daniel Jones will constantly be under duress against the Raiders’ sixth-best pressure rate per Pro Football Reference.
Back the Raiders to come out strong after the bye as they pursue the AFC’s top seed.
Pick: Raiders -3 | Bet to: -5.5
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