The stretch run has arrived! There are 4 weeks to go in the regular season, and we have yet to have a division or a playoff spot clinched. Week 14 brought a ton of overs, but primetime unders roared back to end the week.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 15 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, December 9, at 5 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Unprecedented Dogs
Home & Unproven
The Broncos are home underdogs vs. the Packers this week.
The Patriots are about a 1-pt home dog to Buffalo, too.
Both teams are on a 10-game outright win streak entering this week.
Since 1980, we’ve only seen three home dogs on a 10+ game win streak, but only one featured both starting QBs in the lineup:
2005 AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh, where Ben Roethlisberger faced Tom Brady. Pitt closed +2.5 and lost outright 41-27. The last game in this spot before 2005 with both starting QBs was the 1976 AFC title game between the Steelers and Raiders.
We could have two such games this week.
Sad Cats
Panthers Favored Again
Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 11 straight SU/ATS as a favorite. That is the longest SU losing streak for any team as a favorite since the 1970 merger.
Public Problem
Gone in 60 Seconds
According to Action Network's betting data, NFL teams getting 60% of tickets or more are 50-84 ATS (37%) through 14 weeks. These 60%+ ticket teams are below .500 ATS in 13 of 14 weeks. The 37% mark is the worst through 14 weeks in the 23-year history of our database.
Big Numbers
Week 15 Monster Lines
Week 15 is the week for big spreads.
- Jaguars are double-digit favorites in this game vs. Jets – at any line above -10, it would be the biggest line of Trevor Lawrence’s pro career.
- CJ Stroud has made 46 career NFL starts, his biggest line as a favorite is -8 at home vs. Titans last year – Houston is -9.5 vs. Cardinals this week.
- Bears are 7.5-pt favorites vs. Browns — which would be the biggest favorite for Caleb Williams in his short career. Chicago hasn't closed -7.5 or higher since 2020.
- With Seattle at -13.5 vs. Colts this week, anything at -13 or higher would be the biggest spread for Sam Darnold in his career. Darnold has been a favorite of 6 pts or more 11 times as a starter in the NFL. He is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in those games.
Dog Time
Key Spots
As an underdog of 4 pts or more as a duo, the Lions with Goff and Campbell are 17-3 ATS, covering the spread by 5.2 PPG, including 17-5 ATS when a dog of over 3 pts.
As an underdog, Joe Burrow is 21-11 ATS as a starter in his career. When Burrow closes as an underdog of 3 points or more, he is 10-11-1 SU and 19-3 ATS, covering the spread by 6.2 PPG.
As an underdog of 3 pts or more, Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as a starter. When that line rises to +3.5 or more, he is 11-2-1 ATS.
December To Remember
McVay, LaFleur Shine
In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 21-4 SU and 14-10-1 ATS. LaFleur has 8+ SU losses every month during football season.
As a head coach, Sean McVay is 27-11 SU and 26-11-1 ATS in the month of December, winning 9 in a row outright. Since the start of 2021, McVay is 16-3 ATS in December now.
Monday, Monday, Monday
Steelers Time
Steelers franchise has had a lot of success playing on Monday Night Football, especially at home.
Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 22-5 SU on a Monday, including 11-1 SU at home in Pittsburgh.
Dating back to 1992, Steelers are 22-1 SU at home on a Monday, just losing to the Commanders in 2020 – when Pittsburgh has their fans in the stands and the atmosphere opponents are used to, Steelers are 22-0 SU at home on MNF since 1992.
On actual Monday Night Football itself, Steelers are 21-3 SU under Tomlin, the 2nd-best win pct all-time minimum 10 starts behind just John Madden (11-1-1).
Grandpa Energy
Philip Rivers Returns
Tuesday morning, the 44-year-old Philip Rivers signed with the Colts, going first on their practice squad after Daniel Jones was lost for the season due to an Achilles' injury.
Rivers opened around 40-1 to win Comeback Player of the Year before being quickly bet down to about 12-1 odds just an hour after signing, the current 3rd option behind Christian McCaffrey (-135) and Dak Prescott (+125).
Every NFL Game For Week 15
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➤Expect this one to be close. Baker Mayfield has faced the Falcons five times as the starting QB of the Bucs and here are the final margins:
+3, -5, -6, +4, -3
In two home meetings vs. Falcons with the Bucs, Tampa Bay is 0-2 SU.
➤Since 2021, Baker Mayfield has made 14 starts at night in primetime. His teams are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS in those matchups.
ATS, that is ranked 79th of 82 QBs in that span, behind Tom Brady and Russell Wilson.
SU, that is ranked 82nd of 82 QBs, now ahead of Daniel Jones (1-11 SU) after Baker’s loss at the Rams a few weeks ago.
The combo of Baker Mayfield and Todd Bowles has been tough at night – just 2-9 SU. Without Baker, Bowles is 8-8 SU in night games.
➤Home games have never been Baker’s forte. He is .500 ATS or worse in all eight of his seasons as a starting QB. Overall, Baker is 22-35-1 ATS at home, including 13-24-1 ATS as a favorite.
Over the last decade, Baker’s 22-35-1 ATS mark at home is the worst of 149 QBs in the NFL. Just for fun, the 2nd-worst? Kirk Cousins.
➤Baker had an absolutely dreadful game last week and has been pretty bad the last few weeks. In the loss to the Saints, Baker was 11-23, INT in a clean pocket and was 1-12 passing 10+ yards downfield.
In the first six weeks of the season, Baker was 9th in EPA + CPOE composite and 7th in adjusted EPA/play among 40 QBs.
Since Week 7, Baker is last in the NFL in EPA + CPOE composite (43 of 43 QBs) and he’s 40th in adjusted EPA/play, ahead of only Spencer Rattler, Geno Smith and JJ McCarthy.
Last week, Baker lost to the Saints as a 7.5-pt favorite. In 121 career starts, this was Baker's worst loss by point spread — he was 11-0 SU as a 7+ pt favorite.
➤In outdoor games this season, the Falcons are 0-5 SU and 2-3 ATS, losing those games outright by 10 PPG. In outdoor games since 2020, the Falcons are 11-21 SU and they’ve lost 7 straight entering this week.
➤Falcons got absolutely thrashed at home last week, losing 37-9 to the Seahawks, with almost all of the damage coming in the second half – a 31-3 Seahawks advantage in the 2nd half.
As a head coach, Raheem Morris is just 22-29-1 ATS off a SU loss, but a positive 10-5 ATS when his teams get blown out by 20+ pts, including 8-3 ATS when his team scores less than 10 pts in their previous game.
➤Starting fast has been an issue for the Bucs this year. Tampa Bay is 2-11 against the 1st quarter spread, tied with the Saints for the worst mark in the NFL after last week’s matchup.
This is a big difference compared to last year, where they went 11-6-1 1Q ATS.
➤Falcons have only finished above .500 ATS in one of their last 8 seasons dating back to 2017 – in that span, Atlanta is 60-86-1 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $3,071, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. This season, Atlanta is 6-7 ATS entering this week.
➤After the loss last week, Kirk Cousins is 1-8 ATS in his last 9 starts.
Kirk is 17-26-1 ATS since 2022, which ranks 103rd of 105 QBs in that span, only ahead of Geno Smith and Mac Jones.
In that span, when Cousins starts in December or later, his teams are just 2-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 PPG.
➤A recipe that usually leads to covering, not here. Over the last 3 seasons, two teams are below .500 ATS when they run the ball 25+ times: Titans (9-14 ATS) and Falcons (14-21 ATS).
Last week, Atlanta had 31 carries for 120 yards, but lost the game 37-9.
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➤The bounce back has never been easy. The Bears lost a tight game to the Packers last week – they are now 1-12 SU vs. Packers in their last 13 meetings, including 2-11 ATS in those games.
Since 2019, Chicago is 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten games after facing Green Bay, including 0-3 ATS when they are listed as a favorite in their next game.
➤The Browns have traveled to Chicago to face the Bears four times since the merger in 1970 and they are 0-4 SU/ATS in those games. Browns last win in Chicago came back in 1969.
➤Browns lost outright as favorites last week to the Titans. Cleveland is now 1-6 ATS as favorites over the last two seasons and 18-27 ATS as a favorite under Kevin Stefanski.
Since 2023, just the last three seasons, the Browns have been underdogs of over 7 pts ten times and they’ve actually won 3 of those games outright, that is tied for the most such wins by any team in the NFL in that span.
➤A tight loss for Cleveland last week against the Titans, losing by just two pts on a failed 2-pt conversion. Under Kevin Stefanksi, when Cleveland plays a tight game (final score within one possession), the Browns are 35-50-1 ATS in their next game.
Of 163 head coaches since 2003, that is the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of only Ken Whisenhunt and Mike Shanahan.
➤Bears had a rare loss last week where Caleb Williams didn’t take many sacks, just one in fact.
When Caleb is sacked two times or fewer, the Bears are 11-6 SU.
When he’s sacked three or more times, they are 3-10 SU over the last two seasons.
➤Bears had a terrible 1st half last week, scoring just 3 pts against the Packers with Caleb Williams having just 32 pass yds in the first half.
Teams with a 66%+ win pct this late in the season, to score 3 pts or less in the 1H of their previous game usually see a bounce back in their next game:
22-16 ATS last decade, 58%
55-45 ATS last 20 yrs, 56%
➤Myles Garrett enters Week 15 with 20 total sacks on the season after recording one last week vs. Titans.
To break the single-season record, Garrett needs three more total sacks, which would pass Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt, who both had 22.5 sacks.
In the last two seasons, Caleb Williams has been sacked 88 times, which is the 2nd-most in the NFL behind just Geno Smith at 99 sacks.
➤The Joe Thuney impact on the Bears can not be understated.
- According to PFF, he owns the 7th-best pass block grade for any player this season, while also having the 2nd-most snaps behind just Drew Dalman.
- Thuney hasn’t allowed a sack and he’s only allowed 10 hurries and 11 pressures in those almost 900 total snaps.
After playing for the Patriots, Chiefs and now the Bears, Thuney also knows something about winning – in 159 regular season games, Thuney’s teams are 117-42 SU (74%) and in the playoffs his teams are 17-4 SU.
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➤About 2.5 weeks after facing off on Thanksgiving, it’s Ravens-Bengals again.
The Ravens had beaten the Bengals in four straight games outright entering their last matchup in Week 13, where the Bengals upset Baltimore on the road (in their last 7 meetings, Ravens are 5-2 ATS vs. Bengals).
In the Ravens-Bengals ten total meetings since 2021, the over is 8-2, going over the total by 7.7 PPG, but they went under in their last meeting on Thanksgiving.
➤Lamar Jackson has started fourteen games against the AFC North where Baltimore lost their previous meeting against the team, Ravens are just 5-9 ATS in those games, including 3-5 ATS on the road.
➤ Joe Burrow has faced Lamar Jackson eight times in their careers. Jackson holds the SU advantage 6-2, but they are an even is 4-4 ATS.
Lamar has faced the Bengals 12 times; he is 4-1 ATS on the road but just 2-5 ATS at home.
➤ As an underdog, Joe Burrow is 21-11 ATS as a starter in his career. When Burrow closes as an underdog of 3 points or more, he is 10-11-1 SU and 19-3 ATS, covering the spread by 6.2 PPG.
This will be just the 3rd time Burrow is a home dog vs. AFC North:
2024 vs. Ravens, +2.5, lost 41-38
2020 vs. Browns, +4.5, lost 37-34
➤The Ravens have not started fast at all this season. In 12 total games, Baltimore is 1-12 to their 1st half team total over, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
Over the last two seasons, Ravens have started the year 5-8 1H ATS in both seasons, struggling to get out of the gate both years.
➤Cincinnati started the season 3-7 ATS through ten games – their worst ATS start to a season since 2016.
Since then, the Bengals have covered three straight games. Teams with a win pct under 33%, who have covered three in a row are due for a letdown, going 36-50 ATS since 2003, including 9-22-1 ATS since 2017.
➤Lamar Jackson is 18-3 SU in Weeks 14 forward during the regular season, including 15-0 SU in Weeks 15-18.
The 18-2 SU mark was the best for any QB over the final 5 weeks of the regular season since the 1970 merger (min. 20 starts) prior to last week.
➤Since 2020, the Ravens have played nine total games after facing the Steelers and they have bounced back well, going 7-2 ATS, including 6-1 ATS in the regular season.
➤Lamar Jackson is 7-14 ATS vs. teams allowing over 24 PPG over the last 5 seasons, but it's mostly about the line.
As a favorite of 3 or more pts in that spot, Lamar is 2-14 ATS since 2021 and 5-0 ATS with any line below that mark.
➤When the Ravens are off a SU loss with Lamar at QB, he is just 14-13 ATS in his next start. When his opponent is above .500, Lamar is 7-2 ATS, but like the Bengals, when they are below .500, he is just 4-9 ATS.
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➤Back in Week 1 in Brazil, the Chiefs lost to the Chargers 27-21, breaking a 7-game outright winning streak for KC against the Chargers.
Patrick Mahomes entered the 2025 season 35-5 SU vs. the AFC West – this season so far he is just 1-2 SU – he’s never lost three division games in a single season in his career.
Mahomes is 18-5 SU at home when avenging a loss to an opponent in his previous meeting – including 0-1 SU vs. the Chargers.
➤Covering the spread hasn’t been an easy task for the Chiefs lately. In Mahomes’ last 26 starts, he is 9-17 ATS, including losing 5 in a row ATS.
Mahomes and the Chiefs are listed as favorites again this week, where they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in that spot.
➤The Chargers won as underdogs last week, now they are dogs again against the Chiefs. In Justin Herbert’s career, he is 16-12-1 ATS as an underdog, including 12-6 ATS on a road/neutral site.
Chargers are also 2-0 SU as underdogs so far this season, beating the Eagles and Chiefs already.
As an underdog of 3 pts or more, Herbert is 12-6-1 ATS as a starter. When that line rises to +3.5 or more, he is 11-2-1 ATS – the 3rd-best ROI for any QB in that spot since 2003 with a minimum of 10 starts, behind just Dan Orlovsky (10-1 ATS) and Joe Burrow (16-3 ATS).
➤Andy Reid and Jim Harbaugh have faced off five times entering this week. Harbaugh has had the edge, going 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in those games, covering by 4.6 PPG.
Harbaugh’s four ATS wins without a loss vs. Reid is the most for any head coach against Andy in his career.
➤Mahomes had one of his worst passing performances of his career last week.
2nd career game completing less than 50% of his passes (the other game was this year also)
14 completions were his fewest in a loss in his career
When Mahomes throws for under 200 yds, the Chiefs are 11-4 ATS in their next game.
➤The Packers, Chiefs and Vikings are all 10-3 to the first half under this season, all tied for the best marks in the NFL in that category.
This would be the Chiefs first season above .500 to the 1H under since 2021.
➤A lot has been made of the Chiefs record in one-score games.
They are 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in one-score games this year. Prior to this stretch, they were not only 12-0 SU in 2024, but they had won 17 consecutive one-score games outright.
➤The Chargers had an emotional, overtime win at home vs. Eagles last week and now face KC.
Teams on short rest facing the Chiefs and Mahomes are 4-19 SU and 8-15 ATS, with the Cowboys actually beating KC outright in this spot on Thanksgiving.
After the Chargers win last week, Herbert is now 15-23 SU vs. teams above .500. When the Chargers are underdogs after those 15 wins, they are 0-3 SU with Herbert at QB, losing by 11 PPG.
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➤Patriots are coming off a bye week to face the Bills at home in New England.
Nobody like a bye to re-tool quite like Mike Vrabel, who is 6-1 SU/ATS off a bye week as a head coach, with all seven games coming with the Titans.
In the regular season, Vrabel is 6-0 SU/ATS off a bye. In the one game off a bye where Vrabel had a win pct close to this year was in 2020 with Tennessee, they were 3-0 and beat Buffalo at home off the bye.
Home teams off a bye, facing a team not off a bye, are 6-3 SU this season, including winning 63% of games dating back 20 years, when the home bye team has a better record, they are winning 71.1% of those games.
➤The Bills and Patriots rivalry comes down to words: Allen and Brady.
Allen is 8-7 SU vs. the Patriots. 0-3 SU vs. Tom Brady and 8-4 SU vs. all other QBs.
Since 2001, Bills are 12-38 SU vs. Patriots. Josh Allen has 8 of those wins, with none
coming against Brady.
For fun, in two career matchups, Drake Maye is 3-0 ATS vs. Josh Allen. Maye is the only QB 3-0 ATS or better vs. Josh Allen.
➤It’s arguable that Josh Allen suffered his worst loss of his career by mixture of spread & moment earlier this year vs. Patriots at home in primetime (understanding as well it’s just the regular season).
Since 2020, Josh Allen has started seven games vs. AFC East, where Buffalo had lost their previous meeting, Allen is just 2-5 ATS in those games, with only one of those 7 games coming on the road.
➤In Josh Allen’s 15 career starts against the Patriots, he is just 5-10 against the first-half spread, losing 6 in a row in the first half vs. New England.
➤For the third time this season, the Bills could end up as underdogs in the betting market.
Buffalo is 2-0 SU/ATS as underdogs in 2025, beating the Chiefs and Ravens at home in those games and in his career, Josh Allen is 22-15-2 ATS as a dog, including 6-2-1 ATS as a dog vs. AFC East & 3-0-1 ATS vs. Patriots as dogs.
In November or later, Josh Allen is just 5-12 SU as a dog on the road – going .500 SU or worse in each of his seasons in the NFL.
➤On the other side, if the Patriots close as home dogs to Buffalo, they would join the Broncos as 11-2 SU teams, on a 10-game win streak, both as home dogs in the same week.
Since 1980, we’ve only seen three home dogs on a 10+ game win streak, but only one featured both starting QBs in the lineup:
2005 AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh, where Ben Roethlisberger faced Tom Brady. Pitt closed +2.5 and lost outright 41-27. The last game in this spot before 2005 with both starting QBs was the 1976 AFC title game between the Steelers and Raiders.
➤Diving inside this matchup a bit in terms of quarters and halves, the Patriots have been better in the middle portion of games, while the Bills have just had issues starting fast.
Bills are 3-10 against the spread in the 1st half this season — worst mark in the NFL
Here are the Patriots stats by quarter this year:
1Q: 6-7 ATS
2Q: 11-2 ATS
3Q: 10-3 ATS
4Q: 5-8 ATS
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➤The Giants have lost three straight games both SU and ATS against the Commanders entering this home game, with both teams currently eliminated from playoff contention and these two teams sitting at 15th and 16th place in the NFC.
This is the Giants first 3-game SU and ATS losing streak to Washington since losing four straight SU/ATS back in 1998-00.
➤Giants haven’t exactly been helped by extra prep time recently. Since start of last season, they are 1-5 SU on any extended prep time, losing five in a row SU – with all six of those games coming as underdogs, this week they are a short home favorite.
Teams off a bye with a win pct below 40% while listed as a favorite are just 33-45 ATS since 2003.
➤Since the beginning of the 2023 season, this is just the 3rd time the Giants have been listed as favorites, they are 0-2 ATS in those games, with their last cover as a favorite coming back in 2022.
➤It’s never a pretty sight when a team gets shut out – like the Vikings did two weeks ago, and they bounced back and shutout the Commanders last week. Washington is now up.
Since 2015, teams that were shut out in their previous game are 34-17-3 ATS, including 4-0 ATS this season.
➤The Giants have started hot this year; they are 9-4 1Q ATS, tied for the best mark in the NFL with the Steelers and Cardinals, including 8-2 1Q ATS with Jameis Winston or Jaxon Dart at QB.
With Dart and Jameis, the Giants are 7-3 to the full game over and 1-2 to the over with Russell Wilson. In the first half, the Giants are 9-4 to the over this year, including 8-2 with Dart and Jameis.
➤If Mariota gets the start, he has struggled early in games throughout his career, going 31-48-3 against the 1H spread in his career, the 3rd-worst mark of any QB dating back to 2005.
Mariota is .500 1H ATS or worse in all seven seasons in the NFL. Jayden has been better, 14-13 1H ATS career, including 8-7 1H ATS on the road.
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➤The Eagles are massive favorites at home vs. the Raiders this week, sitting at about 12/13 pt favorite. The over/under in the game is also just 38.5.
In December or later, these big home favs (double-digit favs) with low totals (under 40) are 27-19-2 ATS. Prior to December, they are 23-32 ATS.
➤After last week’s loss on Monday Night Football to the Chargers, the Eagles have now lost 3 consecutive games outright.
This is actually the 4th time under Nick Sirianni that the Eagles have dropped three games in a row – they’ve won each of their next games outright in the last three times in this spot, never losing four in a row.
It isn’t often we see the defending Super Bowl champions on a 3-game SU losing streak the next season – it last happened in 2022 with the Rams after their 2021 Super Bowl win, but Stafford was hurt and never lost three straight starts outright that year.
Before that it was the 2016 Broncos, but same deal, not Peyton Manning. Last QB to win the Super Bowl and then lost three straight the next season was Joe Flacco and the Ravens in 2013.
2022 Rams: 5-12, miss playoffs
2016 Broncos: 9-7, miss playoffs
2013 Ravens: 8-8, miss playoffs
2009 Steelers: 9-7, miss playoffs
2006 Steelers: 8-8, miss playoffs
2003 Bucs: 7-9, miss playoffs
2002 Patriots: 9-7, miss playoffs
The 2000 Rams are the last Super Bowl champion to lose three games in a row the following season and still make the playoffs – they lost in the Wild Card round.
➤At home in Philadelphia, Jalen Hurts is 30-5 SU as a favorite. A $100 bettor taking each of those starts would be up $618 for a 17.7% ROI. Some perspective:
Since 2003, 234 QBs have made a start as a home favorite – just SIX have profited a $100 bettor $500 or more:
Tom Brady: 141-26 SU (+$1,507, 9% ROI)
Joe Flacco: 64-18 SU (+$866, 10.6% ROI)
Peyton Manning: 85-17 SU (+$758, 7.4% ROI)
Jalen Hurts: 30-5 SU (+$618, 17.7% ROI)
Patrick Mahomes: 59-13 SU (+$592, 8.2% ROI)
Josh Allen: 48-10 SU (+$507, 8.7% ROI)
➤No stat is more important to winning than a team total, it's hard to win without points.
Raiders are 4-9 to their team total over this season, tied for the worst mark in the NFL. They were 10-7 to their TTO last year.
In the first half, Raiders are 2-10-1 to their team total over, 2nd-worst mark to the Ravens.
In Pete Carroll’s last two seasons in the NFL with the Raiders and Seahawks, his teams are 11-19 to their team total over.
➤ The bounce-back spot hasn’t been great for Nick Sirianni’s Eagles. When Philly is coming off a loss under Sirianni, they are 8-16 ATS in their next game, with Jalen Hurts also 8-16 ATS in that spot.
Least Profitable Coaches ATS Coming Off a SU Loss (since 2021, of 70 coaches):
70. Brian Callahan: 3-14 ATS
69. Nick Sirianni: 8-16 ATS
68. Matt Rhule: 3-11 ATS
Least Profitable QBs ATS Coming Off a SU Loss (last decade, of 150 QBs):
150. Mitch Trubisky: 9-18-2 ATS
149. Carson Wentz: 19-27 ATS
148. Sam Darnold: 15-23 ATS
147. Jalen Hurts: 8-16 ATS
Even after consecutive losses with Philly, Sirianni is just 3-6 ATS in their next game.
➤The Eagles are on short rest, off an overtime game, with their defense playing a ton of snaps over their last three games at 71, 85 and 68 plays for the opposing offenses.
Teams on short rest off overtime, when their opponent is not off OT, are 26-50 SU and 24-49-3 ATS in the last 20 years, failing to cover the spread by 4.1 PPG.
When their defense is on the field for over 70 plays in the OT game, they are 11-20 SU and 12-18-1 ATS.
➤Geno Smith and Cam Ward are tied for the league lead in sacks taken this year at 49 in total, on top of the 49 sacks, Geno also had 14 interceptions.
In the last 50 years, Geno is just the 5th QB to have 49+ sacks and 14+ INT in his teams first 13 games, joining Sam Howell, Carson Wentz, Jon Kitna and Steve Beuerlein. Geno is 40th of 44 QBs in adjusted EPA/play this year and 41st in aDOT.
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➤Jaguars are double-digit favorites in this game vs. Jets – at any line above -10, it would be the biggest line of Trevor Lawrence’s pro career.
Jacksonville hasn’t closed above an 11-pt favorite since 2007.
➤The Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week – something we all knew was coming. This is now 15 straight years out of the playoffs for New York. In that 15-year span, 17 different QBs have started for the Jets and not a single one of those QBs – not matter the minimum games – are even .500 SU or better.
Jets were eliminated from the playoffs in Week 14 last year as well. In Week 15, they also faced the Jaguars and won outright.
➤The Jets haven’t loved a lot of their trips to Florida – whether that’s the Bucs, Dolphins or Jaguars. Since 2016, Jets are 1-14 SU on the road facing either of those three teams.
➤Jaguars had a big win vs. Colts last week, beating Indy by 17 without Daniel Jones most of the game. Under Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars have been profitable ATS off a win.
18-13 ATS off a win
9-4 ATS off a win by more than 10 pts
6-4 ATS off a win, then a favorite next game
➤The Jaguars rush defense has been something to marvel at. Even if the advanced metrics don’t love them, they are allowing just 82.9 yards per game, fewest mark in the NFL by over six yards.
They are just 1 of 2 teams this year to not allow any player to rush for 90+ yards with the Lions, except the Jags haven’t even allowed a player to rush for 75+ yards.
➤The Jets are 7-6 ATS through thirteen games this season.
Prior to Aaron Glenn, there have been eight different Jets coaches since 2000, and none had been above .500 ATS with New York. The last coach above .500 ATS with the Jets was Al Groh in 2000 at 8-7-1 ATS.
➤The Jaguars are always a thorn in the Colts side, same case last week. Since 2015, Indy is 3-17-1 ATS vs. Jacksonville. Since 2018, Jacksonville is just 3-6-1 ATS the week after facing the Colts – bit of a letdown.
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➤CJ Stroud’s home games have been a reliable spot for the under. He’s 17-5 to the under in 22 career home starts, including four straight. Since the start of last season, 11 of his last 13 home games overall have also stayed under the total.
Overall, Texans games are 10-3 to the under this season, best mark for any team in the NFL.
Texans last four games have gone under the total and they are now above a TD favorite – teams in that spot are 26-4 SU and 15-15 ATS since 2012 – a tough upset spot for Arizona.
➤DeMeco Ryans and the Texans have been listed above a FG favorite (-3.5 or more) thirteen times, and they are 11-2 SU, but just 5-8 ATS in those games.
CJ Stroud has made 46 career NFL starts, his biggest line as a favorite is -8 at home vs. Titans last year – Houston lost outright.
➤Under Jonathan Gannon, the Cardinals have played a road game vs. a defense allowing under 20 PPG seven times and Arizona is 1-6 SU in those games (3-4 ATS), losing by 8.6 PPG with Arizona actually starting four different QBs in those games with all four below .500 SU.
Jacoby Brissett has also started seven games on the road in that spot, he is also 1-6 SU, losing by 11.4 PPG.
➤The slide continued for the Cardinals last week. Arizona is now 1-10 SU in their last 11 games and have now lost five in a row outright.
Teams on a 5+ game losing streak, who have also lost 9 of their last 10 games are 60-46 ATS (57%) since 2003 when the game is in December or later. This includes, Raiders and Commanders this week, too.
➤Arizona has started fast this season, with an 9-4 1Q ATS mark, which is tied for the best mark for any team in the NFL.
The 1st quarter and 3rd quarter are the more scripted quarters, while the 2nd and 4th have a bit less of that.
Arizona is 18-8 ATS in 1st and 3rd quarters and 12-14 ATS in 2nd and 4th quarters this season.
➤Trey McBride is currently tied with Puka Nacua for the receptions lead in the NFL – no Tight End has led the NFL in receptions since Tony Gonzalez in 2004.
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➤A 10-game outright winning streak and a home underdog…
Since 2005, we’ve only seen 8 teams close as just underdogs on a 10-plus game win streak: those teams went 2-5-1 ATS and this is the first since 49ers and Bengals in the 2023 playoffs, both teams lost outright.
Since 1980, we’ve only seen three home dogs on a 10+ game win streak, but only one featured both starting QBs in the lineup:
2005 AFC Championship Game in Pittsburgh, where Ben Roethlisberger faced Tom Brady. Pitt closed +2.5 and lost outright 41-27. The last game in this spot before 2005 with both starting QBs was the 1976 AFC title game between the Steelers and Raiders.
➤The Green Bay Packers go on the road this week to face the Broncos. In franchise history, the Pacers have traveled to Denver just 8 times, with teams being in opposite conferences. Packers are just 1-7 SU in those games, with their only win coming back in 2007 in overtime behind Brett Favre beating Jay Cutler.
This will be just the 3rd time they are road favorites in Denver, losing the other two outright.
➤Buyer beware: teams with a 70%+ win pct in December or later, who are listed as underdogs are just 54-80-4 ATS dating back to 2003, including 10-18-1 ATS when they home underdogs in that matchup.
➤As a home underdog, Bo Nix is 1-2 ATS, as a home favorite he is 8-3 ATS.
Recently though, Denver has won three consecutive games outright as underdogs – their first 3-game outright winning streak as underdogs since 2015-16 when they won 5 in a row SU as dogs.
➤Packers are now 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS vs. Bears in their last 13 meetings – how does GB do after facing Chicago? Well under Matt LaFleur they are 10-2 ATS, covering the spread by 6.6 PPG.
➤ We’ve entered the Jordan Love zone. In the first 10 weeks of the season, Love and the Packers are 12-13-1 SU. From Week 11 on, he is 16-7 SU.
➤The Packers, Chiefs and Vikings are all 10-3 to the first half under this season, all tied for the best marks in the NFL in that category.
In December under LaFleur, Green Bay has cashed the 1H under in five straight games.
➤In December, Matt LaFleur-coached teams have been dominant. He is 21-4 SU and 14-10-1 ATS. LaFleur has 8+ SU losses every month during football season.
The Broncos have won ten straight games outright entering this week and in his December run, LaFleur has only faced two teams on a 6+ game win streak and GB lost both games: 2024 at the Lions and 2024 at the Vikings.
➤Broncos led 24-7 against the Raiders last week and lost the cover on a last-minute chaotic sequence that may go down in infamy. Question is can they cover this week?
Favorites who led by 17+ pts and didn’t cover the spread in their previous game, are just 4-13 SU and 7-10 ATS in December or later when listed as underdogs since 2001.
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➤When Jared Goff and Dan Campbell open as an underdog against any opponent, they are 29-13 ATS (69%) as a duo. When they actually end up closing as the dog, they are 23-12 ATS.
As an underdog of 4 pts or more as a duo, the Lions with Goff and Campbell are 17-3 ATS, covering the spread by 5.2 PPG, including 17-5 ATS when a dog of over 3 pts.
➤December football rolls on. As a head coach, Sean McVay is 27-11 SU and 26-11-1 ATS in the month of December, winning 9 in a row outright.
Since the start of 2021, McVay is 16-3 ATS in December now.
➤Rams have lost two straight nailbitters against the Lions since the calendar flipped to 2024 about two years ago, losing by just 6 pts and 1 point in each game.
Under Sean McVay, when the Rams lose b2b games vs the same team, he is just 15-24-2 ATS and under .500 SU at 20-21.
➤Lions rush defense has been something to marvel at this season. They have yet to allow any player to run for 90+ yards. The highest mark for any player vs. Lions this year is Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, both at just 83 yards.
The other team to not allow 90+ yards rushing to any player this year is the Jaguars, who has only allowed 74 yards as a high, to Jonathan Taylor just last week.
➤We know how good the Lions are off a loss – now 15-0 SU and 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games in that spot.
When Detroit is off a SU win under Dan Campbell, still not too shabby – going 28-17-1 ATS, but they’ve lost four in a row ATS entering this game.
➤Lions defense allowed 31 pts to the Packers at home on Thanksgiving, then they turned around and allowed 30 pts to the Cowboys last week.
As a head coach, Campbell is 17-8 ATS after allowing 30+ pts, including 16-4 ATS as coach of the Lions.
➤Davante Adams leads the NFL in receiving TDs with 14 this year with no other player even with ten at this point.
Last week at Cardinals, Davante only went for 29 rec yds and 0 TDs – his 2nd game this season without a TD and under 50 rec yds. After he did that at Baltimore earlier this year, he posted a 3 TD game in Jacksonville.
➤The Rams are at home, laying over a FG against a good team – not the best spot for McVay and crew. Overall, as a favorite of 3 pts or more at home vs. teams above .500, Rams are 7-11-1 ATS under McVay, including 6-9 ATS when favored by over a FG.
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➤Panthers haven't won or covered the spread in a game (reg/post) they were favored in since Sept. of 2021 — four full years ago – they’ve lost 11 straight SU/ATS as a favorite.
Longest SU Losing Streak as Favorites – Since the 1970 Merger
2021-25 Panthers, 11
1979-81 Seahawks, 8
2015-17 Bears, 7
2015-16 Falcons, 7
1973-75 Giants, 7
• Since 2020, Carolina is 3-14 ATS as favorites. They’ve covered against Davis Mills, Zach Wilson and Dwayne Haskins in those three wins.
• If you also look at the preseason, they are 0-5 ATS as favs last 3 years — last cover coming in 2022 and between preseason, regular and post, they are 1-11 ATS as favorites since 2022 and 5-19 ATS since 2020.
• This will be Bryce Young’s 3rd start as a favorite, he closed -2.5 vs. Cowboys last year and lost 30-14 and closed -5.5 vs. Saints earlier this year and lost 17-7.
• This will be the Panthers first game as a road favorite since Sept. 2022 at the Giants (L, 19-16).
➤In Bryce Young’s first two seasons in the NFL he went 6-22 SU, going 0-1 SU as a favorite and 6-21 SU as an underdog. Talk about a turnaround.
This year, Bryce is 7-5 SU – more wins than his first two seasons – going 7-5 SU as an underdog, but the same 0-1 SU as a favorite.
➤Something has to give. Dave Canales is 0-2 SU on any extended prep time before an opponent as coach of the Panthers. This week Carolina is off a full bye.
This season, teams facing the Saints on any extended prep are 3-0 SU, winning by 13.3 PPG and opponents have won 5 straight games outright on extended prep vs. New Orleans.
➤Saints are 2-11 against the 1st quarter spread this season, tied for the worst mark in the NFL now with the Bucs, who they covered against in the 1Q last week
The Saints are also 0-11-2 on the 1Q moneyline, not winning any of the opening frames. New Orleans has been outscored 99-26 in the 13 1st quarters.
Dating back to 2020, here are the worst 1Q ATS marks over a full season:
2021 Packers: 3-15 1Q ATS
2024 Bears: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
2021 Jaguars: 4-12-1 1Q ATS
➤The Saints pass defense played well lately, allowing under 200 pass yds in three straight games. Now, that isn’t rare in the NFL itself, it is a bit for a team with this bad a record.
Last 20 years, teams to allow under 200 pass yds in 3 straight games, who have a win pct of 25% or less, are actually 38-23 ATS.
➤Bryce Young has made 8 career starts in the afternoon or evening slate of games while with the Panthers – Carolina is 0-8 SU (4-3-1 ATS), scoring 20 pts or more in 2 of the 8 matchups.
➤As a home underdog since 2020, the Saints are 4-17 SU and 5-16 ATS, that is the worst ATS mark for any team in that span.
Saints have lost 7 straight games outright as a home dog dating back to December of 2024.
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➤The Titans beat the Browns last week to get their 2nd win of the season.
Tennessee has lost 10 consecutive games both SU and ATS after a SU win
➤49ers are coming off a full bye week to face the Titans at home.
Under Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco is just 4-8 ATS off a full bye week, including losing their last three games ATS off a bye, going 1-5 ATS off a bye since 2021, including the playoffs.
When Shanahan faces a team under .500 off a bye, 49ers are 0-3 ATS.
➤Earlier this season the 49ers beat the Panthers 20-9, winning and covering on extended rest. That win broke an 8-game ATS losing streak on extended prep time for Brock Purdy at QB for the 49ers. In Purdy’s career, he is just 6-10 ATS on extended prep.
➤Titans have seen a bit of an up tick lately. Prior to firing Brian Callahan, Tennessee was 2-4 ATS – after the firing they are now above .500 ATS at 4-3, with the outright win last week at Cleveland.
➤Teams are glad to be out of a road game in Cleveland. Since 2020, teams on 7 days rest or less (normal rest), coming off a road game in Cleveland, are 22-12 ATS in their next game, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind only road games in Jacksonville.
➤The Titans have struggled vs. their own. They’ve lost 8 straight vs. AFC South, including going 3-14 ATS vs. AFC South since 2023.
When Tennessee faces a non-divisional opponent, like they did last week, they have a little more success at 12-17-1 ATS.
➤The 49ers were recently having an issue covering after a SU win, going 1-15 ATS in their previous 16 games after an outright win – since then, they’ve covered two straight off a win, both as favorites against the Panthers and Browns. Now they are in a similar spot as a big favorite vs. Titans.
➤The 49ers have been double-digit favorites ten times with Brock Purdy at QB, they are 10-0 SU and 6-4 ATS in those games.
➤ The 49ers are 8-5 ATS this season through 13 games – 6-2 ATS on the road and 2-3 ATS at home, which has been a trend for them lately.
Since the start of 2023, SF is 9-15 ATS at home, the 3rd-worst mark ATS for any team in the NFL. On the road, they are 13-12 ATS, right in the middle of the pack.
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➤The story of this game will unfortunately be the season-ending injury to Daniel Jones last week.
Under Shane Steichen, the Colts have had to play 17 total games with a backup QB, which they will now do for the remainder of the season – Indy is actually 9-8 SU/ATS in those games.
The issue? The line. As a favorite with a backup, they are 7-1 SU, as an underdog 2-7 SU.
➤The Colts remaining schedule is no joke. Entering last week, they had the hardest remaining SOS based on win pct at 67% – Now with four games left? Their opponent win pct is 69.2%, still the hardest remaining SOS.
Indy is now about +250 to make the playoffs sitting at 8-5.
➤Sam Darnold has been a favorite of 6 pts or more 11 times as a starter in the NFL. He is 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in those games.
In the last 20 years, Darnold’s 11-0 SU mark as a favorite of 6 pts or more is the most such wins without a loss, passing Ryan Fitzpatrick (10-0 SU) last week.
➤The 1P ET window has been a friend to Seattle. They’ve won 8 straight outright at 1P ET, including 7-0 SU since the start of last season.
Under Mike Macdonald, the Seahawks are now 10-4-1 ATS on the road, including 6-2-1 ATS when playing on the East Coast.
Question is, how they do the week after? When Seattle under Macdonald plays on the road right before a home game, they are 6-4 ATS, when they play b2b home games, they 0-3 ATS.
As above a 7-pt favorite in that spot at home, they’ve won 26-0, 44-22 and 44-13 under Macdonald.
➤Colts are coming off a divisional game against the Jaguars last week – a loss at that.
Under Shane Steichen, Colts are just 5-8 ATS coming off a game vs. AFC South, including going 0-5 SU/ATS in his last 5 games in that spot and 18-12 ATS when they are off a non-divisional game.
➤The Colts may be a different team without Daniel Jones now, but their profile is what it is. When two teams play, both with a 7+ avg margin of victory for the season in November or later, the favorite is 56-81-2 ATS since 2003.
https://sportsinsights.actionnetwork.com/betlabs/screen?ScreenId=1313313
➤Colts run game has been struggling lately. After running for 323 yards on 41 carries in Berlin vs. the Falcons, they have gone:
26 carries, 89 yds (Lost)
19 carries, 55 yds (Lost)
19 carries, 74 yds (Lost)
Since 2013, we’ve only seen 4 teams in December or later run for under 100 yds in three straight games while averaging over 130 rush yds per game on the year – those teams went 4-0 ATS in their next game, all listed as underdogs like the Colts as well.
➤A bit of a surprising stat. When Colts play outdoors vs. teams with a good defense (under 20 PPG), they are actually 8-2 ATS since 2018, covering their only game in that spot this year vs. Chiefs.
With Daniel Jones now out, also funny whoever starts Sunday will be the 9th different Colts QB in 9 starts to play in this spot for Indy: Daniel Jones, Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Philip Rivers, Jacoby Brissett and Andrew Luck.
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➤Overs and overs for Dallas. They are 9-4 to the over this year, best mark in the NFL. Dallas is also 11-2 to their team total over, best mark in the NFL.
Dallas’ 11-2 team total over mark is on pace for the best TTO mark for any team last decade.
In the thirteen total 1st halves for Dallas this year, the 1H over is 12-1. Here are the best 1H over or under marks for any team in the regular season since 2005:
2019 Bucs, 14-2 to over
2025 Cowboys, 12-1 to over
2024 Panthers, 14-3 to over
2020 Cowboys, 13-3 to over
2013 Falcons, 13-3 to over
2013 Titans, 13-3 to under
➤Cowboys have been favored in six games this season, and they are 2-4 ATS in those games. Even after losing as an underdog last week, Dallas is 5-2 ATS as dogs.
Since the start of last season, Dak is just 2-6 ATS when listed as a favorite, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL in that span ahead of just Patrick Mahomes, who is now 11-16-1 ATS as a favorite.
➤Since 2021, Dak Prescott is 14-9 ATS off of a SU loss as a starter, including 3-2 ATS this season.
The issue? Since the start of 2024, Dak has faced a team under .500 off a loss six times and Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in those games, including 0-3 ATS at home.
➤Kevin O’Connell has been the Vikings head coach for 15 total primetime games and Minnesota is just 5-10 SU (6-9 ATS) in those games.
When the Vikings are away from home, they are just 1-7 SU at night in primetime under O’Connell.
➤Dak has liked himself some extra prep time. In his career, he is 19-9 ATS when on any extended rest during the season.
Since 2003, that 19-9 ATS mark is the best among active QBs and 5th for any QB in that span, with a heck of a list:
- Tom Brady, 2. Donovan McNabb, 3. Eli Manning, 4. Peyton Manning, 5. Dak Prescott.
➤It hasn’t been easy to bounce back after facing the Lions lately. This year, teams are 6-6 ATS after facing Detroit, including 24-39 ATS since 2022, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL only ahead of the Jets.
➤The Cowboys have a recipe, it seems. They are 1-9-3 SU on 1st-quarter moneylines, including 3-10 1Q ATS this year. In the 2nd quarter, they are 10-3 2Q ATS, T-2nd best mark in the NFL.
Dallas is 9-4 against the third-quarter spread and then the fall, going 4-9 against the fourth-quarter spread this season.
➤Vikings became the first team since 1992 to be shutout in a game and then the week later, shutout their opponent.
Teams on the road in their game after shutting out their opponent are 21-36-2 ATS (37%) over the last 20 years.
➤The Packers, Chiefs and Vikings are all 10-3 to the first half under this season, all tied for the best marks in the NFL in that category.
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➤Steelers franchise has had a lot of success playing on Monday Night Football, especially at home.
Under Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh is 22-5 SU and 15-12 ATS on Monday Night Football, including 11-1 SU and 6-6 ATS when that game is at home in Pittsburgh.
Dating back to 1992, Steelers are 22-1 SU at home on Monday Night Football, just losing to the Commanders in 2020 – when Pittsburgh has their fans in the stands and the atmosphere opponents are used to, Steelers are 22-0 SU at home on MNF since 1992.
Aaron Rodgers has played at home on MNF thirteen times in his career, his teams are 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS in those games.
➤Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins haven’t fared well in cold weather.
In outdoor games in under 50 degrees, Tua is 2-7 SU and 1-8 ATS in his career.
When Tua starts in under 40 degrees, he is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS, losing those games by 19.2 PPG.
➤Can Miami keep it up? They are 6-7 SU on the season, but they’ve won 4 in a row outright, they’ve won 5 of 6 and they were listed about 80-1 to make the playoffs entering last week, now at 50-1.
Teams on a 4+ game win streak, who are still below .500 in December or later are just 5-8 ATS since 2000, a pretty rare feat for Miami this year on the recent turn around.
Miami has been winning without needing “passing” Tua – he’s thrown for under 200 yards in all four Miami wins during their streak.
➤Steelers are about a 3-pt home favorite vs. Dolphins this week.
Since the start of 2022, when the Steelers win the game outright, they almost always cover – they are 35-0 SU and 34-1 ATS, with their one SU win and ATS loss being the Jets game in Week 1 this year.
➤This will be Tua Tagovailoa’s 18th career start at night in primetime, he is 6-11 SU and ATS in those games, including 2-8 SU in his last 10 primetime starts.
When Tua has been listed as an underdog in primetime games at night, he is 1-8 SU
In the last decade, here are the QBs with one win or less and seven losses or more at night as an underdog:
Tua Tagovailoa: 1-8 SU
Geno Smith: 1-9 SU
Joe Burrow: 0-7 SU
Andy Dalton: 0-9 SU
Daniel Jones: 1-15 SU
➤Dolphins have won four straight games outright with Tua throwing for under 200 pass yds in each game. They are just the 5th team to do that in the last decade, the other four teams went under the full game total in their next game, going under by 7.5 PPG.
➤It had been 36 days since the Steelers completed a pass with 20+ air yards on it, going 0-13 with 3 INT in their last 5 games combined.
Last week vs. the Steelers, Rodgers completed four passes 20+ yds downfield and he went 4-4.
➤Dolphins are just 3-10 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room this year, tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Raiders.
Miami has started fast and faded from there this year. They are 8-5 1Q ATS, 9-4 2Q ATS, 3-10 3Q ATS and 6-7 4Q ATS this season.
➤No turnovers, no sacks – Steelers had an efficient win vs. Ravens last week. Under Mike Tomlin, they are 11-6 ATS the week after a game with zeroes in both of those categories.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Looking for a league-wide edge long term? Look for the business trip off a loss.
Matches: ATL, IND, LVR, NYJ, ARI, BAL, WAS, CLE
System: Bet dogs after blowouts.
Matches: ATL, NYJ
System: Primetime unders have stayed the course this season at 27-19-1.
Matches: TB/ATL, MIN/DAL, MIA/PIT
System: As of now, the Falcons and Commanders fit this trend, but make sure to check current bet percentages below.
Matches: Check current lines.
System: The normal sentiment in betting is to fade the hot teams. We have a bunch this week.
Matches: HOU, JAC, NE, SEA, SF
System: Tough spot for the Lions this week.
Matches: LAR
