Sunday Night Football in Week 15 features an exciting matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Denver Broncos at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
- For more Sunday Night Football coverage, check out our Vikings vs. Cowboys preview, which includes Chris Raybon's spread pick for SNF.
For my top Vikings vs. Cowboys NFL PrizePicks and Underdog plays, I’m highlighting J.J. McCarthy, Jordan Mason, and Malik Davis.
J.J. McCarthy
More Than 191.5 Passing Yards
It has been far from an ideal start to J.J. McCarthy's career. He missed his entire rookie season with injury, and then missed more time this season, only to struggle in the handful of games we have seen him.
However, we saw a glimpse of his potential last week against Washington, where he tossed three touchdown passes and completed 70 percent of his attempts. He is in a great spot tonight to build on that momentum against a Cowboys secondary that is last in passing yards allowed.
Not only is his matchup as good as it gets, but a projected trailing game script should only increase his volume, which makes this passing yards total a smash play.
Jordan Mason
More Than 0.5 Receiving Yards
Building off the matchup highlighted above for the Minnesota passing game, there is one option being overlooked: Jordan Mason.
Mason is not the receiving back in the Vikings offense, but he is not immune to catching the ball. Mason has had at least one catch in eight of 13 games this season.
While the volume is low, there's math behind to unveil the value. Mason is around +105 to catch a pass tonight, a 48.8 percent probability. However, he is around +145 to gain a single yard receiving, a 40.8 percent probability.
Mason catching a pass and gaining positive yardage is highly correlated, so it's much more likely that he goes over this receiving yards total than the price implies.
Malik Davis
More Than 7.5 Rushing Yards
Lastly, we turn to another overlooked running back in Malik Davis. The Cowboys' running game has been a pleasant surprise this season, and Javonte Williams has done a bulk of the damage.
However, over the past few weeks, Malik Davis has begun to carve out a small role for himself in the Cowboys' backfield. Davis has had at least three carries in each of the last four games and has earned them by showing off his explosiveness, averaging 5.9 yards per attempt.
The Vikings have been vulnerable against the run, ranking 22nd in rushing yards allowed per game. If Davis gets his typical volume tonight, he should cruise over this total.
